LONG PERIOD OF CONFLICT EXPECTED IN HONG KONG

by Keith B. Richburg

(The Herald Tribune, 19 September 1995)

HONG KONG - China and Hong Kong seemed set Monday for a prolonged

period of confrontation after residents here gave an overwhelming vote of no-confidence to Beijing's preferred legislative candidates and instead chose a group of outspoken, independent-minded law-makers who are already promising to shout

loudly about human rights, free speech and the rule of law in the run-up to Chinese rule.

Final returns tabulated Monday showed that the Democratic Party, led by Martin C. M. Lee, a lawyer, would be the largest single party in the new legislature, with 19 out of 60 seats.

When allied with other like-minded parties and independents, the legislators who favour standing up to China will form a formidable bloc of at least 25 firm votes, just short of an outright majority.

And in a victory press conference on Monday, an elated Mr. Lee promised to continue the same kind of tough rhetoric that has already made him China's principal nemesis in the colony and earned him the label "subversive" from senior Chinese leaders.

Mr. Lee said the elections proved that Hong Kong people "want legislators who will stand up for them" to protect the territory's precious freedoms in the coming battles with China's Communist leadership.

Mr. Lee said his supporters in the new legislature would use the remaining 21 months of British rule to try to strengthen laws protecting press freedom and free speech, to enact a freedom of information ordinance, and to try again to change a Chinese-British agreement for a new supreme court to guarantee that future judges can act with greater independence.

Asked if he was willing to tone down his rhetoric and make compromises in order to open a dialogue with China, Mr. Lee

replied; "I don't think the people of China want us to take a low-key approach."

"They don't want a spineless government," he said, "They want a government that will stand up for the principles of Hong Kong."

Yet, those are exactly the kinds of statements that most unnerve mainland China, and make it more likely now, in the view of

some analysts, that Beijing will take an even tougher stance toward Hong Kong, keeping its vow to jettison the local legislature and possibly even doing away with direct elections entirely after 1997.

"Beijing will feel 'more insecure and more suspicious towards Hong Kong," said Joseph Cheng, a political science professor at the City University here. It's likely to result in "a tougher line," he said.

"It seems the Hong Kong people want candidates who dare to criticize China to provide some checks and balances, or at

least to articulate their grievances," he said.

But Mr. Cheng said that under the existing colonial system, withmost power still resting with the British governor, the new lawmakers may find themselves frustrated over the next 21 months. The legislature may not introduce any bills that would increase government spending, and the governor can simply choose to ignore the legislature whenever he likes.

Most analysts said the dismal performance of the main pro-China party was another factor suggesting a new era of confrontation. Had more pro-China candidates won seats, the theory goes, China may have felt more comfortable about the idea of direct elections in Hong Kong, and may have been less inclined to abolish the entire legislature when it takes over the colony in mid-1997.

But many of those candidates openly aligned with China were roundly shellacked by the pro-democracy politicians, further adding to Beijing's humiliation here. The main pro-China party, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong,

could manage no more than six seats out of the 60.

To add insult to the embarrassment, the pro-China party's

three most senior officers, the chairman, the vice-chairman,

and the secretary-general, all were crushed. All together, the

pro-China candidates only managed to average about 30 percent of the popular vote, compared with an overall average of more than 60 percent for the Democratic Party politicians.

Looking at the makeup of the next legislature in percentage terms, the main pro-China party's rout looks even more total.

The Democratic Party, alone without its allies, is guaranteed

31 percent of the seats in the next legislature; the pro-China

alliance will have just 10 percent of the seats.

In Beijing, the Xinhua press agency quoted an official of the

Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office repeating yet again Chi-

na's vow to dismantle the legislature.