HONG KONG: NEW WRENCH IN THE U.S.-SINO WORKS

by George Hicks

The International Herald Tribune

Wednesday 30 April, 1997

Of the many Factors that have strained relations between the United States and China, the Taiwan issue has been the most persistent and dangerous. The handover of Hong Kong to China could well change this; as June 30 draws closer, Hong Kong appears set to become the main spoiler in Sino-U.S. relations. In recognizing Beijing as the sole legitimate government of China, including Taiwan, the United States Made a major concession to the Chinese communists. It also agreed that the supply of U.S. military equipment to Taiwan would eventually be phased out. But Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires the U.S. government to retain all past treaties with Taiwan, ensure that the island can resist any Chinese military aggression and encourage Beijing and Taipei to resolve their differences peacefully. Less well known is that in 1992 the Bush administration and Congress agreed to a similar law empowering the U.S. government to make sure existing freedoms and institutions in Hong Kong are preserved afte

r China takes over. The act, which was reconfirmed in September, is quite specific, cannot legally be ignored by an administration and was confirmed in essence when President Bill Clinton met Martin Lee, the leader of the Hong Kong Democratic Party, in the White House on April 18. The act's crucial paragraphs are unambiguous: "Support for democratization is a fundamental principle of U.S. foreign policy. As such, it naturally applies to U.S. policy toward Hong Kong. This will remain equally true after June 30, 1997. The human rights of the people of Hong Kong are of great importance to the United States and are directly relevant to U.S. interests in Hong Kong. A fully successful transition in the exercise of sovereignty over Hong Kong must safeguard human rights in and of themselves. Human rights also serve as a basis for Hong Kong's continued eco-nomic prosperity." According to his spokesman, Mr. Clinton assured Mr. Lee that "support for the rule of law, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and the libert

ies which have been associated with the people of Hong Kong should and must continue. China should not only uphold the economic freedoms that have been so important to the people of Hong Kong but should also continue to extend their civil and political freedoms." Mr. Clinton said that there would be "consequences " if China broke the terms of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which enshrines these freedoms. But when pushed to say what exactly the United States could do, he refused to answer on the grounds that the question was "hypothetical." Yet the question is not hypothetical China has already broken the Joint Declaration in many ways. The most immediately pressing case is Beijing's determination to dissolve Hong Kong's legally elected Legislative Council on July I and replace it with its own handpicked body. Washington and Beijing seem to be on a collision course. But despite Mr. Clinton's rhetorical support for Hong Kong's civil liberties and human rights, he may prefer to allow China to dissolve the

Legislative Council, with little more than U.S. hand-wringing. That would suit those powerful American business interests that see China as a huge potential market for their exports, even though the mainland currently accounts for less than 2 percent of total U.S. trade. They would prefer the United States retreat from Hong Kong and draw the line in the Taiwan Strait where a couple of American aircraft carriers have been shown to be sufficient to defend democracy on Taiwan. Congress, however, may not agree to such a soft approach. The Hong Kong democrats, if they want to avoid being marginalized, must make a stand on the issue of preserving a democratically elected legislature and persuade others to support them. Mr. Lee's recent trip to the United States has given momentum to this cause. There is also a rising tide of anti-China feeling in America. Any capitulation by the Clinton administration on human rights m Hong Kong would have a heavy domestic cost. Moreover, Washington has obvious leverage on the Hon

g Kong issue. The U.S. market is vital to the survival of a modernizing China. Even if the United States does not side strongly with Hong Kong's democrats, it will have to juggle its important interest in preserving a workable relationship with Beijing and its legal commitment to support Hong Kong's struggle for democracy and human rights. Such juggling will always be extremely difficult and controversial. The Taiwan issue, as intractable as it is, may come to be seen in hindsight, and thanks to the Taiwan Strait, as relatively containable. The writer, an economist and author of a number of books on Asia, contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.