The New York Times

Monday, March 20, 2000

Political Earthquake in Taiwan

By ending more than five decades of Nationalist Party rule and electing the opposition candidate, Chen Shui-ban, as its next president, Taiwan has taken an important new step in its democratic evolution. But it may also have inaugurated a period of potentially dangerous uncertainty in its relations with mainland China. Beijing's recent military threats toward Taiwan were aimed primarily at defeating Mr. Chen, who first entered politics as an advocate of Taiwanese independence.

As a presidential candidate, Mr. Chen wisely toned down his pro-independence views. He should now move quickly to affirm that he does not seek any change in Taiwan's existing political status. Beijing should respond by ending its military threats and opening a dialogue with Mr. Chen after he takes office in May.

China's initial reaction over the weekend to Taiwan's election was relatively measured, with Beijing saying that it will judge the new leader by his words and actions rather than by his past positions. That suggests that a heightening of tensions across the Taiwan Strait is not inevitable. But if a new crisis is to be avoided, leaders in both Taipei and Beijing will need to behave responsibly in the weeks ahead. Washington, which risks getting drawn into any new conflict, needs to play a calming role. The Clinton administration is right to press both sides to soften their rhetoric.

Nationalist rule in Taiwan dates back to the military dictatorship of Chiang Kai-shek. After the Chinese Communists seized control of the mainland in 1949, Chiang's defeated forces fled to Taiwan. They imposed decades of harshly repressive martial law. But beginning in the late 1980's, Taiwan's political system began opening up. Most of the changes were instituted by Lee Teng-hui, a native-born Taiwanese who won the island's first democratic presidential election four years ago.

But Mr. Lee's new policies, and his efforts to give Taiwan a more independent diplomatic profile, badly split the Nationalists and contributed to the defeat of his chosen successor, Vice President Lien Chan. The Nationalist vote was further diluted by the independent race run by James Soong, a former party stalwart. Demonstrations by angry Nationalists forced Mr. Lee to agree yesterday to step down as party chairman in September.

During the campaign, Mr. Chen sensibly promised that he would take no steps to declare Taiwan's independence unless the island came under military attack. But unfortunately he went further, arguing that a declaration of independence was unnecessary since Taiwan was already fully sovereign. Such clever wordplay may have paid electoral dividends for Mr. Chen, but it needlessly plays into the hands of mainland militarists. Beijing is already looking for reasons to declare that Taiwan has broken with the notion that there is only one China.

Preserving the one-China formula remains the surest basis for maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait, and with it Taiwan's democratic and capitalist way of life. Beijing should recognize that its goal of reunifying China should be pursued exclusively by peaceful means.