Subject: Somalia News Update, No 17
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In this issue:
* REGION FIVE: ELECTIONS DELAYED
* SOUTHERN SOMALIA: TALKING ABOUT PEACE - PREPARING FOR WAR
* SECURITY COUNCIL: "NO TIME FOR BUSINESS AS USUAL"
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S O M A L I A N E W S U P D A T E
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Vol 3, No 17 June 7, 1994. ISSN 1103-1999
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Somalia News Update is published irregularly via electronic mail and
fax. Questions can be directed to Bernhard.Helander@antro.uu.se or
to fax number +46-18-151160. All SNU marked material is free to
quote as long as the source is clearly stated.
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REGION FIVE: ELECTIONS DELAYED
(SNU, Addis Ababa, June 5) - Ethiopia goes to the polls today,
Sunday - except Region Five, dominated by ethnic Somalis, and the
area in and around Dire Dawa. A statement from the National Electoral
Board yesterday announced the postponement and set a new date for
constituent assembly elections in the region on July 17.
Region Five's elections have been delayed, according to the
Electoral Board's "Elections Update" because of a "lack of sufficient
manpower" that resulted in a situation that was "insufficient for
free and fair elections." Additional staff and resources will be
allocated and voter and candidate registration will be continued for
an extra month. The BBC World Service also quoted an Electoral Board
official as saying that "inter-clan fighting and insecurity" were
also problems.
Ethiopia's constituent assembly will consider the draft
constitution and ratify a final version. The new constitution will
serve as the basis for national parliamentary elections early in
1995. The two key issues for the assembly to discuss will be the
proposed right of ethnic self-determination up to secession and the
ownership of land.
Despite the extra time allowed, the success of the elections in
the region is doubtful. Political upheavals and continuing clashes
between Transitional Government forces and the Islamic fundamentalist
group Itihad have not provided an ideal environment for the planned
elections.
The region's former president, Hassan Jire, was arrested with
his deputy the night before Abdulrahman Ugaz Mohammed Qani, the new
president, finally arrived in Gode on May 13 by military aircraft. An
EPRDF soldier was killed and another injured in an unexplained
incident in Gode market on 25 May. Since then, sources in the region
report a series of security swoops that have led to the arrest of up
to 30 more people, and well-informed sources allege that at least one
man, Mirad Sheikh Yusuf, has been shot dead by EPRDF forces in Gode.
Despite the Ethiopian Minister of Defence's assurances to the
contrary, clashes with Itihad continue. The ONLF's representative in
Addis Ababa, Dr Ibrahim Aden Dollal, said at an opposition forum on
Friday that his party is "completely against" Itihad, and that it is
the Ogaden people who are "guiding" the EPRDF in their sorties. "It
is the people fighting against Itihad," he continued.
The ONLF's participation in the postponed constituent assembly
elections is in doubt. Dr Ibrahim said "If they [the Transitional
Government] stop ignoring us, there may be a possibility of
participating in the coming election." As for the draft constitution,
the ONLF representative in Addis Ababa said on Friday that his party
had not even seen the draft document.
SOUTHERN SOMALIA: TALKING ABOUT PEACE - PREPARING FOR WAR
(SNU, Mogadishu, June 5) - While UNOSOM's hurried preparations to
get the Southern militia leaders to sign yet another paper agreement
has failed one more time (the official reason given this time is
"logistical difficulties"), the militias appear to be geared in
another direction than the talk of peace conferences would have one
believe. Throughout last week the thick smoke from burning tires
clouded the skies of central Mogadishu and machine-gunfire echoed
around the war-torn city. The direct reason for the fighting this
time was an attempt to introduce a new system of port-tariffs to
finance the port - a proposal that met heavy resistance from the
truck owners. But Mogadishu, and Southern Somalia at large, bubbles
over with unresolved conflicts and few of the militias need more than
a tiny reason to resume combat.
The cracks within the UNOSOM-backed SNA militia also became very
open last week when its leader Mohamed Farah Aideed tried to regain
control over one of the militias most valuable assets: loot in the
form of metal scrap. A decree issued by Aideed that prohibited the
export of metal scrap, charcoal and she-goats from the areas
nominally under his control, met with heavy resistance from the metal
scrap dealers that have made fortunes in dealing with such items
throughout the civil war.
The Ayr subsection of Aideed's Habar Gedir clan appear to be on
the verge of a formal break with the rest of the SNA militia and
instead join the opposed camp, headed by Aideed's arch-rival Ali
Mahdi. Mahdi has for a long time been supported by the General Galaal
of the Ayr clan. Mahdi's alliance is based within his own Abgaal clan
and solidly linked with the Murosadde and Hawaadle clans. These clans
appear to be ready to launch an offensive against the SNA at any
moment.
Ali Mahdi's camp have been angered by the recent attempts to
gather the southern militias in Kenya's capital Nairobi. To cement
Aideed's control of his own camp, and to ensure his cooperation in
the talks, UNOSOM helped Aideed to set up a meeting between himself
and the former chairman of the northern SNM militia in Addis Ababa.
Following the meeting the former chairman of the SNM, Abdirahman
"Tuur," denounced the secession of the northern Somaliland Republic,
which he himself announced. The attempt was supposed to provide
Aideed with a strong card and saintly image as the person who united
Somalia but it appears now to have back-fired on both Aideed and
UNOSOM. "Tuur's" denunciation exists only on a plain piece of paper
without SNM's letterhead. It is not signed and it is written in a
mixture of English and Somali by someone who appears not to be fully
literate in either language. It has been opposed by all the key-
persons of the SNM militia including the chairman of the central
committee, Ibrahim Megag Samater, who cautiously points out that his
own term of office, like that of Abdirahman "Tuur," expired well over
a year ago. The democratically elected president of Somaliland,
Mohamed Ibrahim Egal, had already agreed to participate in the
forthcoming talks - like he did in the Addis Ababa agreement in March
93 - when UNOSOM decided to instead reinstate "Tuur." These
manoeuvres cast doubt not only on the legitimacy of the other would-
be attendants of the forthcoming Nairobi talks, but also on the
qualifications of UNOSOM's leadership.
Aideed has been seeking yet other ways to counter the mounting
opposition against his return to Somalia, by attempting to cement his
ties with his personal friend Abdullahi Yusuf of the Majerteen clans'
SSDF militia in the Northeast. Aideed is reported to have handed over
large sums of money to Abdullahi Yusuf.
Meanwhile, the much publicised Lower Juba conference appears to
have come to a stand-still due to the Ogaden clans' hesitance to
accept the UNOSOM formula for peace in the region. The formula -
described by one critic as an "Owen-Vance" type of approach -
allegedly sought to divide the areas in an around Kismayo into
arbitrary clan-sectors of interest. The Ogaden, however, were
dissatisfied with being cut off from the lucrative port and appear to
be reconsidering the whole concept underlying the meeting.
The rising instability in the south implies further setbacks for
the already strained humanitarian programmes in the country. The
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said today that it had
halted work on a water supply for the Somali capital because of
threats to its staff. They said the availability of a reliable water
supply had helped to minimize a recent outbreak of cholera in
Mogadishu. There would now be fears of a new outbreak, they added.
SECURITY COUNCIL: "NO TIME FOR BUSINESS AS USUAL"
(SNU, Uppsala, June 4) - "This is not a time for routinely
conducting business as usual," the US delegate to the Security
Council, Edward W. Gnehm, Jr. , told the council members when passing
Resolution 923 last Tuesday. Several of the council members expressed
far-reaching criticism of UNOSOM's achievements and the council's
Nigerian president, Ibrahim A. Gambari, was extremely pessimistic.
Gambari said he found little grounds for optimism in the
secretary-general's report. The parties and factions in Somalia
seemed as far apart as ever. The impression was that there was a lack
of seriousness on their part for a political solution, and the
situation in the country had deteriorated. The level of insecurity
was unpredictable, and it might not be long before the Mission was
compelled to leave Somalia. It appeared that, during the past few
weeks, the parties had been replenishing the stockpiles of armaments.
Only Rwanda's delegate, Jean Damascene Bizimana, appeared
impressed by UNOSOM's attempts to achieve peace in Somalia. He said
that since the last security council resolution on Somalia, the peace
process had gained new impetus. The majority of council members,
however, appeared to be more on the line of Pakistan's
representative, Sher Afghan Khan, who pointed out that a point could
be reached where scepticism replaced hope.
The council decided to renew UNOSOM's mandate for a four-month
period, thereby contradicting the secretary-general's request for a
six-month extension.
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SNU is an entirely independent newsletter devoted to critical
analysis of the political and humanitarian developments in Somalia
and Somaliland. SNU is edited and published by Dr. Bernhard Helander,
Uppsala University, Sweden. SNU is produced with support from the
Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, Sweden.
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