Subject: Somalia News Update, No 18
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In this issue:
* NEW FIGHTING IN MOGADISHU
* TRADE BOOM IN HARGEISA
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S O M A L I A N E W S U P D A T E
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Vol 3, No 18 June 26, 1994. ISSN 1103-1999
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Somalia News Update is published irregularly via electronic mail and
fax. Questions can be directed to Bernhard.Helander@antro.uu.se or
to fax number +46-18-151160. All SNU marked material is free to
quote as long as the source is clearly stated.
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NEW FIGHTING IN MOGADISHU
(SNU, Uppsala, June 26) - Fierce gun and mortar battles has been
raging in and around Mogadishu since Thursday when "technicals"
containing loyals to the SNA/USC leader Mohamed Farah Aideed were
attacked south of the airport. The attackers were members of the pro-
Ali Mahdi militia. The estimates of the number of wounded ranges in
between 68 (Reuters) and 300 (AP). Reports of the number of killed
vary between 6 (news agencies) and 10 (Somali sources).
UNOSOM's military spokesman Chris Budge on Saturday morning
described the fighting as an internal Somali affair: "At no time has
there been any small arms fire directed towards UNOSOM troops or
facilities." Budge explained that the Zimbabwean UN soldier who was
shot dead on Thursday was the victim of bandits seeking to rob UN
personnel.
Later on during Saturday's battle UNOSOM spokesman George
Bennett, according to a Reuters' telegramme, admitted that the
fighting had disrupted routines inside the fortified UNOSOM compound.
Staff had been asked to take shelter and wear flak jackets and
helmets after what he called "substantial stray rounds" overshot the
compound.
COMMENTARY:
This latest outburst of fighting in the Somali capital comes after a
period of increased tension within and between the Somali militias.
The prices on weapons and ammunition in Mogadishu have been on the
rise for some time, indicating an increase in demand.
UNOSOM reported last week that a peace treaty in the Lower Juba
area had been concluded. However, sources in Nairobi describe the
treaty as "extremely shaky" since it does not include one of the
major elements of the conflict and the single largest population
element in the Lower Jubba region, the Ogaden clan. In addition, a
source close to one of the parties has told Somalia News Update that
the treaty has yet to be formally signed, the current deal is only
verbal.
Aideed's SNA-militia has been rocked severely by growing
dissatisfaction among several of his Habar Gedir clan's sub-branches.
The Ayr and Suleyman sub-clans in particular have repeatedly been
said to be on the verge of breaking out of the SNA to instead join
the opposed camp headed by Ali Mahdi. In addition, the Hawaadle clan
two weeks ago issued an ultimatum to Aideed to withdraw his ban on
export of metal scrap and other items that are vital in economy of
the militias. This ultimatum is said to have been viewed extremely
favourably by the dissident wings of the SNA.
It is clear that the so-called Somali Salvation Alliance headed
by Ali Mahdi sees the current developments as a window of
opportunity. A spokesman for Ali Mahdi yesterday declared a "full
scale civil war" and in a radio broadcast the Somali people was
called on to back the "Somali National Army". Meanwhile, Aideed has
been seeking to strengthen his own ranks by incorporating the Somali
National Union into the SNA.
In the North-eastern regions the SSDF militia began their long-
awaited congress in Gardho this week. The 165 official delegates from
all around the world are facing a number of crucial decisions, among
them the question of leadership. Some observers believe that the
congress will remove Mohamed Abshir and instead install Colonel
Abduhallahi Yusuf as the leader. Such a development would be favoured
by Aideed who is an old friend of Abdullahi Yusuf since they once
shared the same cell. Last year Abdullahi Yusuf and Aideed
successfully concluded a treaty which brought a noticeable measure of
stability to the central region of Mudug. Mohamed Abshir, in turn,
is a known supporter of Ali Mahdi's "presidency".
In another current congress taking place in Beled Weyn, the
Hawaadle clan are believed to have reconsolidated their forces
following their victory over the SNA in the Galgaduud region last
month.
It appears extremely unlikely that UNOSOM will be able to meet
the July 29 deadline when the security council expects a new progress
report from the Secretary-General. The Nairobi peace talks have been
rescheduled indefinitely and the recent developments have shown that
even with high-level militia negotiations taking place, the war on
the ground will continue. Ambassador Gbeho, the new SRSG, due to
arrive in Mogadishu within a week, would be wise to reconsider the
nature and scope of the approach to peace adopted by UNOSOM so far.
TRADE BOOM IN HARGEISA
(DHA, Geneva, June 22) Hargeisa is experiencing a boom in trade with
Ethiopia. Most imported goods came though Djibouti port and were
trucked to Hargeisa until the Djibouti government closed the road to
the Northwest to keep out potential troublemakers. Traders now
tranship to Berbera port. Many commercial imports through Berbera are
trucked to the Ethiopia market. The Somali shilling is used as far as
the Ethiopian regional city of Dire Dawa. Livestock exports are high.
Hargeisa's population is returning and the central commercial and
market area is as crowded as it was ten years ago.
Following the closure of the borders between Djibouti and the
Northwest of Somali, there were reports that the port of Berbera is
benefiting from increased shipping traffic and that the larger
traders are opening offices in town.
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* Advertisement: *
* Michael Maren, Africa correspondent for The Village Voice, is writ- *
* ing a book on the years leading up to the collapse of Somalia and is *
* interested in hearing from people who worked or lived there between *
* 1977 and December 1992. He would like to correspond with former aid *
* workers, business people, officials of the Barre government, victims *
* of the Barre government, opposition activists, and anyone else who *
* has first hand experience in Somalia during those years. Contact him *
* directly at <71131.3444@CompuServe.COM> or send mail to 425 East *
* Ninth Street, #3A, New York, NY 10009, USA. *
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SNU is an entirely independent newsletter devoted to critical
analysis of the political and humanitarian developments in Somalia
and Somaliland. SNU is edited and published by Dr. Bernhard Helander,
Uppsala University, Sweden. SNU is produced with support from the
Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, Sweden.
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