EARLY-WARNING, PREVENTIVE DEPLOYMENT AND HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION:

Events

21 Oct. 1969 - Military coup, 1 week after first democratic

elections; Maj. Gen. Barre leads 25 strong

revolutionary council. Somali Revolutionary

Socialist Party (SRSP).

April 1978 - Attempted military coup fails.

Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF) formed.

1981 - Somali National Movement (SNM) formed.

May 1988 - Civil war erupts in Somalia.

Jan 8 1990 - Barre dismisses Cabinet.

Jan 20 1991 - Barre flees country.

Jan 29 1991 - Ali Mahti Mohammed - new president.

Nov 1991 - Fighting breaks out in Mogadishu.

- Civil war intensifies.

Jan 3-5 1992 - UN Asst. Secretary General Jonah (ORCI) peace

mission fails.

Jan 23 1992 - UN Security Council votes arms embargo on

Somalia.

Jan 26 1992 - Farah Aydid welcomed a truce but reiterated his

opposition to the idea of an international

peacekeeping force.

March 3 1992 - Cease-fire agreed upon after 4 months of

fighting.

Mar 17 - UN resolution 746 agrees to the urgent dispatch

of a technical team to Mogadishu.

Mar 23 - UN technical team arrives in Mogadishu to monitor

cease-fire.

May 3 - 4.5-6 million Somalians estimated to be starving.

Questions:

How can an effective early-warning system for the UN be established in which a close link exists between UN monitoring of an emerging disaster and humanitarian and, if necessary, millitary response?

Might the "enforcement units" suggested in Agenda for Peace be able to ensure the safety of relief supplies into Somalia, given that such units, although more heavily armed than peacekeeping units would not have full military enforcement capacity?

If not, is it desirable that the Security Council be prepared to declare a humanitarian disaster a "threat to the peace" to accord itself enforcement powers to ensure the safety of relief supplies?