By Martin Nesirky

MOSCOW, July 18 (Reuter) - Moscow's declared aim of joining the European Union is politically laudable but economically unrealistic, at least for many years to come, Russia analysts said on Friday.

Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, just two days after the executive European Commission opened the historic process of enlarging to countries behind the former Iron Curtain, said in Brussels that Russia, too, was set on entering the club.

``We take it as a good omen showing Russia is looking very seriously towards the West,'' said a Commission diplomat in Moscow who asked not to be identified.

``We are certainly going to be asking the Foreign Ministry what kind of interpretation we should attach to this.''

Analysts who track Russian foreign and economic policy said they saw Chernomyrdin's remark as having symbolic value, even if the prospect of giant Russia joining an enlarged EU was distant or even unrealistic.

``Chernomyrdin's announcement is laudable because it shows the desire and commitment of the government to integrate with the West on trade and with the world economic and financial system,'' said Daniel McGovern of Merrill Lynch in London.

Moscow has already been embraced as a virtually full member of the Group of Seven most industrialised nations and is keen to join the World Trade Organisation and the Paris Club of government creditors.

``Who would have imagined five years ago that Russia would be a member of the G8?'' said McGovern. ``So who is to say where Russia will be in 10 years? I would not rule (membership) out but the change in Russia and the change in the EU structure would have to be enormous.''

He noted that Estonia, a tiny former Soviet republic which was among the six countries invited to start membership negotiations with the wealthy 15-nation EU, was unlikely to join before 2002.

The EU would have its work cut out, particularly in agriculture and poorer regions, in coping with expansion to 21 members, he said.

Chernomyrdin, speaking to reporters after meeting European Commission President Jacques Santer, was essentially restating ambitions already voiced by President Boris Yeltsin.

``In the near future, I think that Russia should be in the EU with all the implications and consequences, not all of which will be easy for us,'' he said through a translator.

The Commission diplomat said it was not yet clear whether Chernomyrdin was taking things a stage further than Yeltsin who said in March in Helsinki that Russia was ``prepared to join.''

``We were told after the president's comments, which were slightly bewildering, that we should interpret them as meaning Russia really wanted ever closer cooperation,'' he said. ``We are not sure yet whether Chernomyrdin means more than this.''

Certainly, EU officials at the time assumed that Yeltsin's Russia, which stretches from the Baltic to the Pacific, would be in no position to join for years, if ever.

Experts and officials see the remarks by both Yeltsin and Chernomyrdin as part of Russia's attempt to come in from the cold of post-communist Europe and to compensate for the NATO defence alliance's eastward expansion.

Moscow has sought closer ties with China, India and some Middle East states as it casts around for its new role.

Nonetheless Russia's government is for now in the firm grip of westernising reformers who are tackling everything from wage arrears, a yawning budget deficit and better protection for foreign investors -- all noises the West would like to hear.

``This shows the Westernisers are winning out,'' said Russia analyst John-Paul Smith of Morgan Stanley in London. ``But there are still massive structural imbalances in Russia, not least in agriculture.''

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Johnson's Russia List

#1063

18 July 1997

djohnson@cdi.org