The New York Times

Wednesday, February 24, 1999

PEACE ON HOLD IN KOSOVO

The negotiation over a peace plan for Kosovo did not follow the advance script, and have now adjourned for three weeks in a state of great uncertainty. Whether the talks can be brought to a successful conclusion depends on whether the two sides are prepared to make compromises they have resisted and whether they refrain from violence during this delicate interval.

Ethnic Albanian negotiators did their part yesterday to make peace possible by softening their unexpected demand that a political settlement include a referendum on independence in Kosovo in three years. If the ethnic Albanian delegation returns to France ready to sign the peace deal proposed by the United States its European allies and Russian Serbia will be isolated in its opposition to the plan. In that circumstance, NATO would be free to initiate air strikes against Serbian military targets to force Slobodan Milosevic, the Serbian leaders to accept the proposed deal. Serbia has balked at allowing NATO peacekeepers into Kosovo as part of an agreement.

But there is much chance for both sides to undermine the peace plan over the next three weeks. Having declared the need to return home to test public opinion in reality to try to persuade hardline guerrilla leaders the ethnic Albanians could shift course by the time the talks resume next month, and once again insist on a referendum. This would scuttle the chance for self-government and the NATO protection that Kosovo's Albanian population deserves and needs.

More ominously, the negotiating break is an invitation to more violence in Kosovo. If ethnic Albanian guerrillas score some victories, they may hope to persuade supporters that independence can be won without a peace deal. Mr. Milosevic may decide to escalate Serbian military attacks to try to defeat the guerrillas or anger the ethnic Albanians and drive them away from any agreement. If he can provoke the guerrillas to reject the plan, he will probably avoid NATO air strikes.

The West must do everything possible to keep the parties on track to a workable accord. It must keep alive the bombing threat against Mr. Milosevic and not allow him to dictate conditions that will eventually undermine peace. If there is new violence or more attacks on members of the international verification mission now in Kosovo, NATO may have to use its air power in the days ahead to prevent greater bloodshed. The prospects for peace are not good. But they have not yet perished.