Note: Place namesrendered primarily in Serbian spelling
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"Milosevic does not have a veto [over the entry of NATO troops into Kosovo]. We are not going to hang around in Macedonia until there is a grand signing ceremony in front of the flags and the cameras." Britain's Foreign Minister Robin Cook Quoted by Agence France Presse, May 17 - Brussels
"We use a level of rhetoric that... rightfully condemns everything Milosevic is doing and describes him as Hitler, it describes this in Holocaustlike terms. But at the same time that political rhetoric is matched by a political objective that says we want to convince him to enter into an agreement with us so that we can send troops in permissively. And then the military means to achieve that is air power only... We have not broken their political will. And we have not damaged the center of strategic gravity of all of this, the armed forces of Yugoslavia, Serbia, in a way that has caused them to break and run... And so far in almost two months of air power action that point has not been reached with Mr.
Milosevic... but only Mr. Milosevic can tell us where that point is and when it might be reached, and that is the difficulty with a single dimension campaign."
Former Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell May 17 - Washington
"The inner circle believes that Milosevic will accept a compromise solution, but it must be a negotiation and not a capitulation to terms...He must be seen as a respected negotiator." Belgrade political commentator Bratislav Grubacic Quoted by the New York Times, May 19 - Belgrade
"What we need to do in order to solve this problem is to put an end to this conflict - we must focus on resolving the problem of Kosovo. I think it must remain clear what the central problem is. Once a solution is found, the rest will follow, and the rest is what we are interested in on this mission." UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Sergio Vieira de Mello, leader of UN humanitarian mission, after viewing a bombed automobile/arms plant in Serbia Quoted by Reuters, May 19 - Aleksinac, Serbia
"Oh, these guys. They're the ones who are going to give us the money." Anonymous Serb, watching UN humanitarian assessment mission pass through his town Quoted by Reuters, May 19 - Aleksinac, Serbia
"Kosovo is a fight between, as I see it, good and evil. It is the international community coming together to rewrite the rules to set a certain standard that we expect of countries and of peoples. If the situation in Kosovo is not seen through to the end and hopefully there will be a diplomatic solution, a political solution if not, if the Kosovars are not returned to their homeland, then you are giving strength to those who feel that people can be taken advantage of, that there can be a second set of rules." Jordan's King Abdullah Bin Alhussein May 19 -- Washington
I. OUTLINES OF POSSIBLE NATO-MILOSEVIC DEAL FORMING
Milosevic, inner circle ready "to cut a deal" but attempts to split alliance feared
* The New York Times reported today that "on Tuesday, Yugoslav Foreign Ministry spokesman Nebojsa Vujovic said Belgrade was ready 'to cut a deal.' But he did not explicitly say Belgrade was ready to let an armed force
including NATO troops enter the southern Serb province of Kosovo to police the deal a key stumbling block to any agreemment...The independent analys Bratislav Grubacic said the difficulty in resolving the crisis would be to
find a solution that saves face for all sides involved. For Mr. Milosevic, a senior Yugoslav official said, the key will be to underline the sovereignty of Serbia over Kosovo." The Chicago Tribune reported today that "for Milosevic, the bottom line to any deal is that he must be part of it. His primary goal is to remain in power. The fact that the Yugoslav army has stood up to NATO for eight weeks, and that public support is still behind Milosevic, has given him some room to maneuver, according to analysts in Belgrade. Whatever is finally agreed upon in terms of international troop deployments, refugee returns and Kosovo's political status can probably be sold in Yugoslavia as "peace with honor," so long as
Milosevic can present himself as the one who brokered the deal."
* The Wall Street Journal May 13 quoted a senior US official: " 'We haven't ruled out talking to him'... [But the official] quickly added that NATO has no intention of getting involved in wide-ranging negotiations on its five
demands for a peace settlement. But if Mr. Milosevic is looking for a face-saving way out, the official added, a meeting might be possible."
* The Independent (London) noted today that Vujovic's comments "were being weighed last night by NATO diplomats, some of whom were skeptical that they
amounted to anything more than another effort to split the alliance just as some of its members - most notably Germany - were ever more uneasy about a continuation of the air strikes... According to Italian officials,
[Serbia's Prime Minister Milan] Milutinovic insisted [yesterday] that the problem had to be handed over to the UN, in effect placing a solution at the mercy of a Russian or Chinese veto in the Security Council."
* The Guardian (London) noted today that "ever alive to the fissures in NATO, key Serbian figures tried to widen them... Borgoljub Karic... a close [Milosevic] associate... made overtures to [Germany's Foreign Minister Joschka] Fischer, describing the German foreign minister as 'an upright fighter for peace' and inviting him to Belgrade to prepare a peace summit of US, Russian, German and Yugoslav leaders. His brother Dragomir has met
Mr. Fischer twice privately to assess mediation prospects."
Discussions on Kosovo force resolution, composition, arms continue
* Agence France Presse reported today that "Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and Russian envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin backed a settlement of the Kosovo conflict within the framework of the United Nations, and a role for Belgrade in working out a G8 peace plan, a communique issued here Wednesday said. The two men "had a detailed discussion on the whole of the Kosovo problem and the ways to resolve it," the communique published by Tanjug
news agency said at the end of Chernomyrdin's visit. They "consider that the solution can only be political and in the framework of the United Nations with direct and active participation of Yugoslavia in formulating
options based on the G8 principles," it added. Talks would continue in Belgrade Monday and Tuesday next week, the statement added."
* Agence France Presse reported today following the announcement that " The UN secretary general's special envoy on Yugoslavia, Eduard Kukan, will arrive in the Russian capital along with Carl Bildt, also now appointed a UN special representative on Kosovo, it said. The two are scheduled separately for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, the news agency reported, citing ministry sources. Also expected in Moscow on Thursday is US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, who has planned trilateral talks with Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari and Chernomyrdin. Reuters reported yesterday that Ahtisaari would travel to Belgrade with
Chernomyrdin "only if Russia and the West reach a deal, paving the way to a UN Security Council endorsement of any peace enforcement. 'He won't be on the plane until everyone else is on board,' one diplomat said."
*Associated Press reported today that "envoys from seven Western powers and Russia met at a government guest house overlooking the Rhine River to discuss the Kosovo crisis today after Yugoslavia indicated it was open to their peace initiative. The Group of Eight foreign ministry officials are drafting a U.N. Security Council resolution backing NATO terms for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic that could also be passed by Russia and China,
both of which oppose the allied bombing campaign. The officials were briefed by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, who arrived from two days of talks with Russian and Finnish officials in Helsinki, Finland.
'The more accent there is on issues where we agree, the more likely it is that one person who is not in on these meetings, Mr. Milosevic, will get the right message,' Talbott said. 'The cardinal question is whether
Milosevic is ready to agree to the five conditions contained in the G8 statement,' he said. Talbott declined to be specific about the negotiations. But Italian officials at the meeting, speaking on condition
of anonymity, said one possibility on the table would allow Milosevic to keep some forces in Kosovo in order to get a peace plan under way. Russia delegate Boris Mayorsky said the G-8 was discussing both the U.N.
resolution and 'accompanying issues'-- meaning a timetable for putting it into practice."
* Reuters today quoted US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott: "There is really no fundamental difference among any of the parties that were
discussing this issue here today... We have now a basic agreement on the contours of peace and what is required now is an agreement by the Belgrade leadership of what it takes to get to that peace... the main point is the
similarities." Associated Press reported today that "a U.S. official said Tuesday that Russian and other G-8 powers are divided on whether to bring a Kosovo peace to the Security Council before or after Yugoslavia agrees to
end the nearly 2-month-old conflict." The New York Times reported today that "the G8 plan put forward two weeks ago calls for an international security presence in Kosovo. Western powers interpret the security presence
as a wellarmed NATOled force, though the wording has been left vague to accommodate Russia, which has cultural and religious ties to Serbia. However, a breakthrough seemed less likely after a U.S. official at the United Nations said there were disagreements even among NATO members in the G8 about the timing of the resolution. Germany and Italy are pressing for diplomatic moves to end the crisis, including in the U.N. Security Council.
The U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the United States, Britain and France are more cautious because they not only have to get Russia to agree to a resolution but also China, which wants a bombing halt before discussing a peace plan at the United Nations."
* The Washington Post noted today that "while White House officials said they consider Chernomyrdin's involvement constructive, they said Russia has yet to accept Clinton's bottom line on two essential parts of an agreement. One point is the security force that would go to Kosovo after a settlement. Clinton insists the force must be NATO-led. The other point is whether all
Yugoslav military and special police forces must withdraw from Kosovo, as Clinton says, or whether some would get to stay behind." The New York Times Monday cited a senior Yugoslav official saying "[that] it will be important
for Mr. Milosevic to keep at least some token Yugoslav Army and police forces along the borders with Albania and Macedonia, even if they are ''shadowed'' by international forces, one senior Yugoslav official said."
* The Daily Telegraph (London) noted today that "for the Russians... it remains unacceptable that America and Britain should be allowed to occupy Kosovo. The danger for Britain and America is that the other NATO countries
are much more willing to compromise than they are. Neither Italy nor Germany, which have been working on a peace plan of their own, feel it necessary to be dogmatic about NATO's role in the force."
* The Los Angeles Times reported Tuesday that "NATO's top U.S. military commander has decided that he will need at least 40,000 troops--an increase of more than 40% over earlier estimates--to keep peace in Kosovo once the
fighting ends, alliance sources said Monday. The revised peacekeeping plan, drafted by Gen. Wesley K. Clark, is based on the assumption that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic will ultimately accept NATO's conditions for a truce, allowing the troops to enter the province
unopposed...The new NATO force would probably have, for example, more military engineers to advise on how to rebuild Kosovo's battered infrastructure; units to sweep mines from roads, bridges and fields; and "civil affairs" specialists to give advice on rebuilding the province's
government and court system, one officer said. NATO realizes, this officer said, that any new plan for a peacekeeping force would probably have to be modified later, once NATO works out a peace treaty with Milosevic.
Officials also said the total force would have to be substantially larger than the originally anticipated 28,000 to accommodate troops from Russia and other countries that might wish to participate. Although U.S. and allied officials say the force must have a NATO command structure, they say they now expect the force to contain a number of troops from outside the alliance." US Defense Department spokesman Kenneth Bacon today confirmed the estimate of 40,000. Associated Press noted today that "Pentagon officials said they expect Americans will make up [10-15%] of the larger force, or 4,500-7,500."
US official rules out war crimes immunity for Milosevic, who reportedly seeks it
* US Ambassador-at-large for War Crimes David Scheffer said yesterday "there is no immunity deal to be cut with the Yugoslav War Crimes Tribunal, it is not part of their mandate. We created the Tribunal to go wherever the
evidence takes it, it is up to the Tribunal to determine who is investigated and who is indicted and it is not up to either the United States government or, I would argue, NATO to dictate to the Yugoslav Tribunal any particular formulations that it should use in determining how
to investigate and how to bring indictments."
* The Washington Post noted today that "some diplomats [in Brussels] have cautioned that NATO's drumbeat on atrocities could backfire and make it more difficult to negotiate a ceasefire with Milosevic without some promise
of immunity from prosecution." The New York Times reported Monday that a senior Yugoslav official "[said] it will also be important...that Mr. Milosevic feels that a deal protects himself and his family."
II. URGENCY GROWS OVER MILITARY CAMPAIGN
Splits in NATO over use of ground troops, continued bombing
* The Financial Times reported today that Britain's Foreign Secretary Robin Cook "is expected to use his trip to the US tomorrow to press the case for the deployment of ground troops in Kosovo. UK officials acknowledge Britain is the only country in the NATO alliance willing to countenance the use of troops while Serb forces, albeit in a depleted form, remain inside Kosovo.
'We are the only country facing up to the hard choices on Kosovo. The Americans have not reached a crunch decision one way or another. We have not won the argument yet,' an official said... UK officials believe the US administration has not yet been forced to focus on a decision while Serb forces remain inside Kosovo. They acknowledge the US would entertain deploying troops only if Serb forces had withdrawn or Yugoslavia had agreed
to a withdrawal. The UK is keen to persuade other NATO countries to back its hawkish position now because of the calculation that the build-up of the necessary 50,000 ground troops in the Balkans will take at least two
months."
* The New York Times reported yesterday that " Prime Minister Tony Blair is coming under increasing pressure to use his close friendship with President Clinton to challenge him on the issue of using ground troops in Kosovo. The conviction is taking hold in Britain that the war against President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia cannot be won on NATO's terms without troops the ground. Mr. Blair is being urged to persuade Mr. Clinton to confront Congressional and public misgivings over committing American soldiers to such an effort. Reflecting widespread public doubts about the American President's stance, the lead editorial of The Financial Times said today, 'Mr. Clinton's prevarication about offering the U.S. troops that are vital to a successful outcome has left time on Mr. Milosevic's side.' The Times of London said today that one of those moments that makes for what Winston Churchill called the British-American 'special relationship' was at hand and that it was up to Mr. Blair 'to convince the President t
hat his reputation and NATO's future credibility rest upon a willingness to use the tools at his disposal.' A former Defense Minister, Michael Portillo, said on Sunday, 'If the Government wants to achieve what it says it wants to achieve, you can only do that by ground forces.' And Paddy Ashdown, leader of the Liberal Democrats and himself a former Royal Marine commando officer, said he had never heard of anyone 'surrendering to an aircraft.' "
* Reuters reported today that "German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said Wednesday he did not believe combat troops would be deployed in Yugoslavia and there would be no majority in the German parliament for using ground
forces...Schroeder said in an interview with ZDF television after a meeting in Brussels with NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana that NATO had no
reason to change its strategy. 'It is also my view that we will not deploy ground troops in Yugoslavia,' Schroeder said, according to an advance text of the interview to be broadcast later Wednesday. 'The development of a joint strategy is after all a joint development and can only be changed jointly.' Schroeder said, pointedly using the word 'joint' three times in
one sentence. The chancellor's position seemed to have hardened since late April, when he said Germany would support the use of ground troops in Yugoslavia if that was what NATO decided." The Guardian (London) noted
today that "Italy [yesterday] stressed there was no 'political premise' for NATO ground deployments in the province."
* Britain's Secretary of State for Defense George Robertson said yesterday that "we have ruled out...a wholesale invasion against organized force inside Kosovo. We have also said that we would go in in the benign
circumstances of when there was an agreement... Between these two extremities, clearly there are situations that might well apply. For instance, if Milosevic's troops were in retreat and unable to fight and there was the prospect of largescale deaths through starvation or through cold and exposure taking place inside Kosovo then we would have to look at that situation." The Washington Post reported yesterday that "Robertson was describing a scenario that in U.S. parlance has become known as the
"semipermissive environment." Some State Department officials have urged Clinton to embrace the idea of sending troops in such a situation, but Pentagon officials made plain that, as a matter of military planning, there was no such thing: There are combat troops or peacekeepers, but nothing in between."
* When President Clinton was asked yesterday whether he had given "any more consideration" to a ground war in Kosovo, he responded: " I think the air war has accomplished quite a bit, and there is a lot more that it can accomplish. I and everyone else has always said that we intend to see our objectives achieved, and that we have not and will not take any option off the table. But we are making progress, and I am convinced that we will
achieve our objectives one way or the other." The New York Times noted that "Administration officials insisted that the President's comments did not signal a change of policy... His aides and military officials have insisted
that ground troops are not a viable option." However, the Washington Post noted today that "Clinton's statement on ground troops followed a two hour session he held Monday evening with his senior national security advisers
at which officials said the group confronted in blunt terms the possibility that an invasion might eventually be the only way NATO can impose acceptable terms on Yugoslavia. 'If the diplomatic track does not bear
fruit, we have to be in a position to guarantee success with strictly military means,' said one administration official close to the deliberations, adding that this recognition could lead soon to a reappraisal of combat ground troops. Previously, Clinton has said that he
would put ground troops into Kosovo only as peacekeepers with the consent of Belgrade, following an autonomy agreement. Clinton's latest remarks, one official said, were an effort 'to break out of a rhetorical box that we
never should have gotten into.''It has not been removed permanently from the table, but neither is it adopted,' a senior State Department official said."
* Reuters noted today that when US Army Chief of Staff General Dennis Reimer was asked today by the Senate Armed Services about Clinton's remark, he replied: " 'What he said is that ground forces are still an option on the table, under the right set of conditions,' although he did not say what 'the right set of conditions' might be."
* The Sunday Times (London) reported May 16 that Prime Minister Blair "feels 'a deep sense of frustration' with Bill Clinton after failing to persuade him to commit ground troops to Kosovo, according to a senior government source. The prime minister telephoned Clinton last week about the Balkans war and their aides spoke repeatedly. Robin Cook, the foreign secretary, was also in daily contact with Madeleine Albright, the American secretary of state. But no agreement was reached on the use of American land forces. Blair believes a build-up of ground troops and credible threats to use them are needed to convince Slobodan Milosevic, the Yugoslav president, to withdraw his forces from Kosovo. Blair favors a land
invasion if such threats fail and air strikes do not achieve NATO's objectives. Clinton is unwilling to put American lives at risk on the ground."
* Newsweek's May 24 issue reports it "has learned that a few weeks ago the Joint Chiefs of Staff sent a letter to Defense Secretary William Cohen saying that only ground troops would guarantee fulfillment of the
administration's political objectives... But there is a growing sense in the military that time is running out. Pentagon sources estimate that there are 600,000 people living out in the open in Kosovo, and another 200,000
under shelter but displaced from their homes. Those Kosovars must be helped before the snows of winter; and bombs won't do the job. A ground war would have to commence by the beginning of August, and the forces required must start assembling by the beginning of June...His humanitarian instincts are surely genuine. But it is still unclear that he has drawn the obvious
conclusion of the Kosovo war: you can't stop a humanitarian outrage from 15,000 feet in the air."
* The Washington Post reported yesterday that "German Foreign Ministry sources said that the pacifist Greens party, the junior partner in [Germany's Prime Minister] Shroeder's ruling coalition, is placing enormous
pressure on the government to give [a] bombing halt a try. A similar political situation faces [Italian Prime Minister] D'Alema, who also presides over a shaky coalition that includes Greens and Communists opposed to NATO's air campaign. On Sunday, D'Alema floated the idea of a temporary NATO bombing halt once the UN security council passes a resolution calling for the withdrawal of government security forces from Kosovo and authorizes insertion of an international military contingent of
returning refugees. But D'Alema went on to say that if Milosevic refuses to accept the terms of the UN resolution, NATO would have no choice but to launch a ground offensive - one to which Italy would contribute."
West looks to Balkan winter
* The Financial Times reported May 14 that "outside Kosovo, relief agencies are drawing up contingency plans to 'winterize' about 750,000 refugees who may not be able to return before the first snows fall in October."
Assistant Secretary of State Julia Taft said yesterday of the refugee population in Macedonia and Albania that "if we can make our relocation program work and continue to work on the camps, and then, of course, be prepared, if necessary, to winterize these camps, we believe we can handle the problem."
* The Guardian (London) noted today that Britain "is hoping that the continuing air campaign will lead to an alliance agreement to send in ground troops by late summer - in time tto prepare the resettlement or ethnic Albanians before winter - with or without a diplomatic agreement with the Serbian president."
* During a question-and-answer session in Britain's House of Commons May 12, Conservative Party leader William Hague noted comments by British General Michael Jackson that "I see a very, very miserable and hard winter if we
have refugees in tents over that period," and asked: "Given that assessment, does the Prime Minister agree that it is vital that NATO's objectives are not just achieved, but achieved before the first snows of the Balkan winter in October?" Prime Minister Blair responded: "I can assure the Right Hon. Gentleman that it is our constant preoccupation that everything we do, including the planning that we undertake, bears in mind
when winter in the Balkans comes." Liberal Democratic Party leader Paddy Ashdown then noted: "Time is beginning to press hard on the Kosovo situation. The coming heat of the summer months will create a breeding ground for despair, if not disease, in the refugee camps and, if we are required to use troops to get the refugees back home before the winter, a decision on deployment must probably be made within a fortnight or so. President Milosevic may not be limiting our options, but does the Prime Minister realize that delay could close off our options for us?" Blair responded: "I am acutely aware of the issue of time, the issue of the winter and the need to plan for all contingencies."
