The New York Times

Friday, May 28, 1999

Officials Say Diplomacy Is Victim

By JANE PERLEZ

WASHINGTON -- Publicly, the Clinton Administration has applauded the indictment of Slobodan Milosevic, a move that appears to change the Yugoslav President's status from potential deal maker to pariah.

But in private, Administration officials say the indictment is likely to cripple their efforts to find a diplomatic solution on the current tracks -- through the Russian envoy, Viktor S. Chernomyrdin, and the President of Finland, Martti Ahtisaari.

The indictment has much diminished the hopes of using Ahtisaari as a go-between who could win Milosevic's acquiescence in a settlement. Viewed in recent weeks as the most likely candidate to succeed in final negotiations, Ahtisaari would be very reluctant to go to Belgrade to deal with an indicted war criminal, one colleague said.

And one official described the indictment as a blow to the track with Chernomyrdin, which was already seen as "pretty shaky" by some in the Administration, who noted growing criticism of him at home.

Like others in the Russian Government, Chernomyrdin is opposed to a key NATO plank: that an eventual security force for Kosovo be under the alliance's control. That is an idea that Milosevic has rejected, too.

Perhaps more troubling for the White House, the indictment enhances the arguments for NATO's use of ground troops. Washington has been trying to avoid that option, relying on an air war that is dragging on.

In terms of diplomacy, the indictment makes it immensely difficult to cut a deal with Milosevic, because to do so would undermine the authority of the war crimes tribunal, the very body to which the Clinton Administration and the British Government provided intelligence information for use in formulating the indictments.

And from Milosevic's point of view, the most obvious maneuver would be to request immunity from prosecution before making any settlement arrangements. But that is an impossible scenario for the West to consider.

British officials were quick to point out that the indictment makes it unlikely that what they characterized as a shabby deal would be struck with Milosevic. "We think it might be helpful in stiffening their spine," a British official said of the indictment's effect on the Clinton Administration.

At home, Senator Joseph R. Biden, Democrat of Delaware, said that after hearing of the indictment, he called President Clinton in Florida and urged him to act promptly to send in the extra American troops that have been pledged for the peacekeeping force.

Given the choice of sending ground troops into a dangerous "nonpermissive" environment in Kosovo or dealing with Milosevic on the final points of a settlement, the Administration was likely to go for the dealing -- a practical but unsavory choice.

The Administration's initial reaction on Wednesday to word of the pending indictment was that it would not preclude direct negotiations with the Yugoslav leader. But officials acknowledged the awkwardness of negotiating with a man who has been indicted on war crimes charges.

Thursday Administration officials said the White House was not ruling out the possibility that a diplomatic solution could be reached with an intermediary down the line.

The Administration was notified of the indictment on Tuesday by Louise Arbour, the chief war crimes prosecutor at the tribunal in The Hague. Given that advance notice, officials had a chance to figure out what course lay ahead.

But except for the consensus that the indictment complicated diplomacy, there was no cohesive judgment on the future.

One senior Administration official who is familiar with the Serbian leaders said it was conceivable that Milosevic would take his country down with him.

"The No. 1 question is Milosevic's reaction and whether this drives him into a fatalistic mode," the official said.

Another senior Administration official, with less experience in the Balkans, said he believed that the indictment would weaken Milosevic among his people.

This could make Milosevic more susceptible to diplomatic pressure, as well as military pressure, the official said.

The court's decision "deepens his isolation, weakens him, makes him very uncertain about his situation," this official said.

"He has to shore up his strength, and he can't by taking an intransigent position," he said. "If he takes a crazed extremist view, he'll be all alone pretty soon."

With Milosevic growing increasingly isolated among his people, according to this reasoning, NATO's air campaign and the decision to begin to deploy troops for the international security force would have far greater potential for forcing the Yugoslav leader to cave in to NATO demands.

Senator Biden, who met with the national security adviser, Samuel R. Berger, Thursday morning, said the indictment might have the "potential of further isolating Milosevic within Serbia."

But the Senator, who met with Milosevic in Belgrade in 1993 and called him a "war criminal" to his face, said that he "wouldn't bet the farm" on the isolation among Serbs being so extreme that Milosevic would be forced to end the war.

Although the timing of the indictment was awkward, Biden said, it carried the "good news of verifying what NATO is doing.'

The British Government, which since the beginning of the air campaign has been much stronger in painting Milosevic as a man not to be dealt with, seemed to take great pleasure in Ms. Arbour's decision.

The diplomatic track with Chernomyrdin was an unattractive bet, a senior British official explained, because Chernomyrdin seemed uncertain in his approach.

"And Chernomyrdin was trying to do a deal with a man incapable of delivering," he said in reference to Milosevic. "This pushes the equation forward on troops."

The Administration was taken somewhat by surprise that Milosevic's right-hand man, Milan Milutinovic, the President of Serbia, was also indicted.

From a negotiating point of view, this vastly complicated the picture, diplomats said.

The indictment of Milutinovic means that the Administration and NATO have no real replacement with authority with whom to make a final settlement.

One factor being considered by some Administration officials is the effect the indictment may have on Milosevic's wealthy inner circle.

Among those who have criticized Milosevic publicly is Bogoljub Karic, who runs television stations and owns a bank.

There may be some ways to persuade people like Karic that it would not be helpful to them to stick with the regime, one official said.

" Karic could be reminded of the Nuremberg example -- where industrialists were considered Class A war criminals," the official said.