The New York Times

Thursday, June 3, 1999

Kosovo Crossroad

Bill Clinton and Slobodan Milosevic face critical decisions this week about the war in Yugoslavia. If intensifying diplomatic efforts produce a political settlement, military operations could end quickly, followed by the rebuilding of Kosovo and the return of ethnic Albanian refugees this fall. If Mr. Milosevic refuses to make peace, months of additional bombing are likely and Mr. Clinton and his NATO allies will have to decide soon whether to prepare for an invasion later this year.

The latest peace plan proposed by the United States and Russia is reasonable but fragile. Mr. Milosevic accepts many of the ideas in principle, including the presence after the war of an international security force in Kosovo and restoration of considerable autonomy for the province. But the plan will collapse if he is unwilling to accept crucial elements, including the use of well-armed NATO troops as peacekeepers and the removal of Serbian army, police and paramilitary forces from Kosovo. A few hundred border guards may be allowed to return once Kosovo is at peace. Mr. Milosevic must also begin a substantial and verifiable withdrawal of forces before NATO suspends bombing.

Russian forces should play a leading role in making Kosovo secure for the return of the refugees, along with troops from Greece and other NATO members that Mr. Milosevic may abide. But hundreds of thousands of displaced ethnic Albanians, shaken by the brutal Serbian assault on Kosovo, will not return home unless their safety is guaranteed by a substantial number of soldiers from the United States, Britain and France. NATO has drafted a sound plan that calls for some 50,000 alliance peacekeepers, including 7,000 Americans. Coordination and command issues must be sorted out with Moscow, which seems to think Russian forces can operate independently in Kosovo.

The NATO peacekeepers will gather in the Balkans in the days ahead, and many of the same units can be used if an invasion is warranted. But making a land war more than an empty threat requires assembling at least 100,000 combat troops, and a much higher proportion of Americans than planned for peacekeeping alone. Tanks, artillery and other heavy weapons must also be brought to the region, along with ammunition, fuel and other supplies, a complex logistical exercise that would take several months to complete. If Mr. Clinton wishes to preserve the invasion option, which he should, the United States and NATO must start assembling the forces now.

His meeting today with the nation's top military commanders should give Mr. Clinton a chance to review the risks involved in an invasion. They are considerable, and Congress and the American people are wary of an invasion. If Mr. Milosevic balks at peace, there will be time this summer for the nation and NATO to decide whether ground forces should be used. But unless the soldiers and weapons are in place by early September, there will be no invasion option until next spring.