The New York Times

Friday, July 9, 1999

The Resistance to Mr. Milosevic

Even some of Slobodan Milosevic's strongholds are now the scene of large street rallies calling for him to step down.

While this display of clear thinking by ordinary Serbs is cheering, it is not likely to result in a quick change in leadership. He has faced widespread protests in the past and outwitted his opposition, and he holds the power to do so again.

Mr. Milosevic's term as President of Yugoslavia does not end until 2002.

He also controls Serbia's media. What can happen when this control lapses was dramatically illustrated in normally pro-Milosevic Leskovac. Last Friday a television technician there took control of his station during halftime of a widely watched basketball game. He criticized local and national authorities and called on people to protest. Three days later, 20,000 citizens marched.

In 1996, after the end of the Bosnian war, Serbia erupted in 100 days of street demonstrations.

Mr. Milosevic agreed to restore opposition electoral victories he had annulled in major cities, including Belgrade. But then he divided his opponents by giving a high government job to the most popular -- Vuk Draskovic, an opportunistic nationalist.

Although Mr. Draskovic was fired for criticizing Belgrade's Kosovo policies, he has attacked the opposition and until Leskovac refused to join protests.

Mr. Milosevic is also good at rallying public support. It is highest during a war, one reason he started four of them.

He can do it again, notably in Serbia's sister republic of Montenegro, whose pro-Western leader, Milo Djukanovic, is perhaps the most credible challenger to his rule.

One surprising aspect of the anti-Milosevic rallies is the dearth of attacks on NATO. But this does not mean that his critics oppose nationalism. Many are reservists who fought in Kosovo and are yet unpaid, refugees from Kosovo or people who think Mr. Milosevic sold out Serbs there.

Still, any likely replacement would be better than Mr. Milosevic.

He is a wanted war criminal, and NATO should be ready to arrest him if it can. The West should also be helping the independent media to resume broadcasting, perhaps from Montenegro, and encouraging a united opposition. But democracy in Serbia cannot come from outside. The opposition must learn from its mistakes.