."Milosevic is not part of the solution, he's not part of the problem, he is the problem. We've made that quite clear, and we think that the sooner that the people of Serbia take the necessary steps to democratize, to push for real democratic change and not have a dictatorial regime in charge pursuing these ruinous policies, the better off the people of Serbia will be. But that is for them to decide. It is a homegrown democracy that is the only kind of democracy that will succeed there." US State Department spokesman James Rubin
July 13 « Washington
"I am ashamed to be a Serb in Serbia with this kind of government. We must free Serbia from Milosevic and his cronies." Velimir Ilic, Mayor of Cacak, Serbia
Quoted by Associated Press, July 13 « Jagodina, Serbia
"Through sincere cooperation in the interest of citizens, true solidarity and pan-national unity, we must oppose all those who are trying to destabilize our country with lies and manipulations... No one has the right to be a passive observer of attempts from outside to use local traitors to cause what they had failed to do with the strongest military force in the world. JUL is certain that Yugoslav citizens are aware of this and that all patriots feel this. Statement by Yugoslav United Left (JUL), ruling coalition party Quoted by state press agency Tanjug, July 12 « Belgrade
"We finally have a Greater Serbia and the police from Bosnia, Krajina and now also from Kosovo who have a ten-year experience in perpetrating violence against civilians. We also have various paramilitaries from various parts of the former Yugoslavia who fought on the Yugoslav side. The mechanism of repression has never been bigger and we have never had more reason to ask ourselves what will happen now that almost everyone can have his or her own policeman."
Natasa Kandic, Director, Humanitarian Law Center, Belgrade Interview with Danas weekly, July 3-4 - Belgrade
"After the referendum, knowing the mood here, Montenegro will certainly become an independent state. If Milosevic wants war, which we don't want, Montenegro has the force to emerge victorious. He will lose the war in Montenegro just as he lost all the wars he has fought."
Miodrag Vukovic, advisor to Montenegro's President Milo Djukanovic
Quoted by Associated Press, July 10 « Podgorica
"The West has to keep applying pressure. Now that Milosevic has been indicted as a war criminal, all contact with the West has to be cut off from Serbia as long as he is in power. The Serb people have to understand that they will never have a normal life and normal relations with the international community while Milosevic is in power. Only this will cause them to get rid of him."
Unnamed Serbian film maker
Quoted by The Ottowa Citizen, July 9 « Belgrade
"Milosevic thought he could keep me out of Kosovo, but I believe that he can't keep himself out of The Hague."
Louise Arbour, Chief Prosecutor, International Criminal Tribunal
Quoted by Agence France Presse, July 13 « Pristina
"Many of Milosevic's associates are gripped by fear, especially since The Hague war crimes tribunal indicted five of them and the EU blacklisted several hundred and froze their assets abroad. They would now like to leave government without at the same time incurring his wrath and possible revenge. Milosevic no longer appears to have much confidence in Serbian President Milan Milutinovic, who offered his resignation during the NATO air campaign but apparently lacked courage to withdraw. Milosevic is deeply concerned at the strict implementation of EU measures which have prevented his son Marko from travelling to Greece where he has a house and a new yacht. Marko was denied a visa by the Greek embassy in Belgrade some 10 days ago. All local analysts agree that Milosevic's problems will mount in the months to come. They are wondering how long the crisis will last and what price the Serbs will have to pay for his downfall, which will most probably come as the result of strong spontaneous outbursts of popular dis
content."
VIP Newsletter, July 8 « Belgrade
I. DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE AS OPPOSITION SQUABBLES
Valjevo crowd storms city hall, reservists' protests continue, anti-Milosevic petitions spreading in Belgrade
* The Times (London) reported today that "an angry crowd tried to storm the town hall in the Serbian town of Valjevo last night. Shots and breaking glass echoed through the streets as the protesters, demanding Slobodan Milosevic's resignation, surged forward. Their attempts to force their way into the building were rebuffed by scores of armed police. Bogoljub Arsenijevic, a local artist, had mobilised a crowd of several thousand in
the town. Some 700 signaled their willingness to try to force their way inside the seat of local government, which is dominated by Mr Milosevic's Socialist Party. Scuffles broke out between police and protesters but the militia seemed to be using the minimum force necessary to prevent an invasion of the town hall. That is likely to be seen by protesters throughout Serbia as unwillingness by the police to enter into a civil war at this stage. Valjevo was sealed off about an hour before the protest began and tension at the start was palpable on the streets. Hundreds of shaven-headed youths gathered round a makeshift stage near the town hall and plainclothes and uniformed special police arrived in large numbers. A CNN reporter was reportedly arrested as he tried to enter the town. Mr Arsenijevic said yesterday that his family was intimidated by police who called at his home and told his wife he would be killed if he went ahead with the protest."
* The Times report quoted Arsenijevic: " 'The opposition parties are not ready for change -- we are. I would support the man who uses brutality against Milosevic because he is brutal and we have to behave in the samem way.' He said that he was planning protests in the Milosevic family's home town of Pozarevac. Most of the protests in the past two weeks have been organised by the Alliance for Change, led largely by the Democratic Party.
The other main opposition group, the Serbian Renewal Movement, led by Vuk Draskovic, says it plans to call a number of protests in the next few weeks. Mr Arsenijevic was scornful of these protests. 'I am not a member of a political party, but the time for change has come.' "
* Associated Press reports today that "in cities across Serbia, thousands of demonstrators demanded Tuesday that Milosevic step down. Zoran Djindjic, head of the Democratic Party, told a crowd of about 4,000 in the central Serbian town of Jagodina that Milosevic "has to go before winter" and announced more protests in the coming days in the capital, Belgrade, and other major cities. Thousands of protesters also demonstrated for the second consecutive day in the western Serbian town of Valjevo, under close police watch. In Vranje, about 300 army reservists protested for a fourth consecutive day Tuesday, demanding longoverdue pay from the state for their service in Kosovo. About 2,000 people held a protest march in the southern town of Leskovac, demanding the release of those arrested in the first antigovernment protest last week, the private Beta news agency reported. A separate protest of 2,500 was held in the northeastern town of Zenin."
* BETA news agency (Belgrade) reported yesterday that "in Vranje on July 13, at least 300 reservists protested for the fourth consecutive day demanding the payment of wages for the time they were engaged in Kosovo. While the reservists were protesting in the southern Serbian city, maintaining a half-hour blockade of a section of the Belgrade-Skopje highway on the outskirts of Vranje, the city's municipal leaders met with the Yugoslav Third Army commander, General Nebojsa Pavkovic. After the protest rally, the reservists met with General Pavkovic at the Yugoslav Army center. Following the talks Pavkovic said that wages would be paid in 15 days at the latest. The reservists agreed to wait and ended their four-day protest at 5 p.m. The talks between General Pavkovic and the reservists were also attended by the Yugoslav Army's Pristina and Nis corps commanders. The Yugoslav Army is to pay each reservist from Vranje outstanding wages amounting to between 3,000 and 21,000 dinars."
* Associated Press reported today that "Belgraders swarmed to sign a petition organized by the Alliance for Change at about two dozen places in the capital, demanding the Yugoslav president's resignation. Some 12,000 signed within a few hours, organizers said. Despite an earlier ban on the action, police did not intervene." BETA news agency reported today that "Alliance for Change coordinator and Serbian Democratic Christian Party president Vladan Batic said on July 12 that so far 150,000 citizens of Serbia have signed a petition asking from Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to step down. At a press conference he added that the Alliance for Change, which initiated the petition, expects that by July 25, that is until the date the petition will be available for signing, some two million citizens will place their signatures on it, and thus support the demand for Milosevic's resignation. The signing of the petition is being conducted in all larger Serbian towns, despite the pressures of the police who are
trying to stop this action, mainly by banning the action verbally. The Democratic Party said that the signing of the petition started in Belgrade on July 12, and that it will be continued on July 13, despite the police ban. Representatives of 13 political parties active in Subotica agreed on July 12 to coordinate their actions in collecting signatures, which should become effective as of July 14."
* Reuters reported Sunday that "opposition parties held a rally in the northern province of Vojvodina against President Slobodan Milosevic. Around 1,500 people gathered in a central square in the town of Kikinda near Yugoslavia's border with Romania shouting 'Down with Milosevic!' and 'Resign!.' One placard held by a member of the crowd read 'Long live Milosevic!' but had 'April Fool!' emblazoned on the back. 'We are in jail with Slobo who is a war criminal,' said Nenad Canak, head of the league of Social Democrats of Vojvodina."
Independent unions call general strike; pensioners, farmers plan protests
* BETA reports today that "the independent trade unions association called on July 13 all unions in Serbia to jointly organize a general strike to last until Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic resigns. In its announcement the association said that the situation that the Serbian people is currently in, 'is mainly Slobodan Milosevic's responsibility. He lost the confidence of the citizens a long time ago and is holding on to power only thanks to wars, police repression and election thefts.' "
* The Times (London) reports today that "hundred of thousands of elderly people in Serbia are facing starvation because state pension funds have been siphoned off by the Milosevic regime, according to the leader of the main pensioners' body. 'The Government has spent the pension funds for years,' Milan Duric, president of the Independent Union of Pensioners, said. 'Now they do not have the money to pay us.' There are 1.25 million pensioners in Serbia and the last time they were paid was to cover the first half of February. Many receive a paltry amount that does not begin to
cover the cost of even basic food, Mr Duric said... Tomorrow Mr Duric plans to lead thousands of pensioners on a march through central Belgrade. The demonstrators will hold a rally calling for the resignation of Mr Milosevic and the payment of longoverdue pensions. Similar protests are planned simultaneously in Kragujevac, Nis, Krusevac, Uzice and Cacak. The marches are significant because, traditionally, many older people have been stalwart supporters of Mr Milosevic's Socialist Party. After experiencing the horrors of fascism during the Second World War, many saw communism as the antidote."
* Agence France Presse noted today that "in the northern town of Zrenjanin, Vojvodina, 2,500 attended another anti- Milosevic demonstration, organised by an alliance of local opposition parties. Independent union leader Branislav Canak attended the rally. In Zabalj, 80 kilometres (50 miles) north of the capital, the leader of the independent farmers' union threatened to join with other unions in a general strike next week to force Milosevic's resignation. Djordje Garabandic said his members would blockade roads, bridges and industrial sites as part of the action."
Draskovic announces demonstrations
* Reuters reported today that "Vuk Draskovic... said on Tuesday the Serbian Renewal Movement will launch huge meetings and people's gatherings. We are starting on Saturday, 17th of July in Kragujevac,' Draskovic, a former opposition leader who joined the government briefly this year, told a news conference. Draskovic... said last week the time was not ripe for protests.
He did not make clear what had made him change his mind, but was at pains to emphasise that his protests would be separate from those called by his rivals, the smaller but more clearcut opposition grouping Alliance for
Change... Some of his party members on a local level have already joined the Alliance protests. The Alliance has accused Draskovic of using the guise of opposition to rejuvenate Milosevic's rule. Draskovic says their more radical approach is dangerous and counterproductive. Draskovic's party had in fact announced last week it was taking over a daily protest which started spontaneously in the southern city of Leskovac but when his representatives set up a formal platform for the protest, which had previously been a spontaneous and sometimes violent gathering, few turned up."
* Reuters also noted that Draskovic had "moved from arguing that Milosevic should be given a chance to reform his government to saying on Tuesday the Yugoslav leader should resign. But his plan involves calling for political change first rather than urging Milosevic to step aside as an initial step. 'We need the resignation of Milosevic, we demand the resignation of Milosevic right now, but resignation is not quite enough,' he said. 'We are preparing the programme of the reforms of elections which would be the water eliminating not only Milosevic but the system he created... I'm promoting a programme which avoids civil war.' He said that nine years of calling on Milosevic to resign had not borne fruit and there was no point in just forcing Milosevic to step aside, saying that unless the system was changed he could just appoint a puppet in his place. Pressed by the assembled reporters as to whether he would actually call for Milosevic's resignation at his rallies, Draskovic said: 'There's nothing left for m
e now except to leave this press conference, go straight to Milosevic, grab him and tell him 'resign'!' "
* The Guardian (London) quoted Draskovic speaking Monday: "I think Serbia must go to the future, and the condition for that is that Mr. Milosevic, politically, must go to the past. And the moment the regime realizes 80% of the people of Serbia are supporting this program, demanding the program, the regime must capitulate... the regime will not be brave [enough] to provoke civil war because the regime will be the victim of that war."
Djindjic calls for demonstrations in Belgrade, transitional government
* Agence France Presse reported today that "opposition leader Zoran Djindjic called Tuesday for a march on Belgrade against Slobodan Milosevic as anti-regime demonstrations continued and one union leader threatened a general strike. Djindjic, head of the opposition Democratic Party and former Belgrade mayor, told journalists a march on the capital would be organised in two weeks. 'In 15 days after 15 demonstrations 1,000 people will leave 15 towns to rally in Belgrade,' he said after a 3,000-strong demonstration in Jagodina, 110 kilometres (70 miles) south of Belgrade. Organisers read out a message of support from Yugoslav Crown Prince Alexander Karadjordjevic. Djindjic predicted that Milosevic would be out of power by September. 'We will start daily demonstrations throughout Serbia and expect the work to be accomplished by August or September,' he said."
* Reuters reported July 10 that Djindjic "called for a transitional government to be set up after that to lead the country to elections: 'We have to look for a transitional solution, such as an experts' government or a technical government staffed with people who have international credibility, like the former governor of the Central Bank Dragoslav Avramovic and others.' He said the Serbian Orthodox Church would be asked to oversee the process to ensure it was fair and apolitical. 'It can be a solution even for supporters of Milosevic. It would be a government of national unity, we have to build real unity on economic issues,' he said. He said people should be chosen who were not directly involved in politics. 'We are ready to support these people. That might be the solution and we are going to work on it.' "
Two opposition coalitions agree to merge efforts
* BETA news agency (Belgrade) reported Monday that "the Alliance for Changes (SZP) and the Alliance of Democratic Parties (SDP) are to sign by the end of the week a codex of cooperation, Vladan Batic, coordinator of the SZP and chairman of the Democratic Christian Party of Serbia (DHSS), has stated today. He told a news conference that the SZP and SDP had one and the same goal, namely to change the authorities in Serbia and Yugoslavia, and announced that the leaders of the SZP would address rallies organized by the SDP and vice versa."
II. MILOSEVIC MARSHALS RESOURCES
Election maneuver being prepared?
* BETA news agency reports today that "Serbian Renewal Movement leader Vuk Draskovic said on July 13 that a local self-rule draft was secretly prepared in the night between July 12 and July 13, proposing urgent local elections in Serbia based on a majority one-round-only system. At a press conference he said that Renewal Movement representatives in the legislature will not attend the coming session, at which this draft should be adopted, along with 16 war-time decrees, which are to be adopted as legislation [see below]. He said that according to Renewal's information the Serbian Socialist Party, Yugoslav Left and the Serb Radical Party will run together in these elections."
* BETA reported today that "the party whips of the Serbian Renewal Movement, the New Democracy and of the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians in the Serbian legislature did not respond to Serbian vice-premier Ratko Markovic's invitation to July 13 consultations on the draft law on local self-rule, reports TV Studio B. As this TV station learned, party whips of the Socialist Party of Serbia and of the Serbian Radical Party, Gorica Gajevic and Stevo Dragisic, were also invited to the consultations. It is not known if they were held. New Democracy stated that its party whip in the Serbian legislature, Zarko Jokanovic, received the invitation in the morning of July 13, and replied to Markovic in a letter saying he will not come because such a serious draft law cannot be discussed at an improvised meeting. Jokanovic told Studio B that the draft law on self-rule has 77 pages, and that its essence is the single-round majority system for electing deputies to local assemblies. According to the draft, the elections woul
d be organized by republican and federal election committees, if local elections were to be scheduled at the same time with the republic general elections, said Jokanovic. State television in its main news program reported that the executive board of the Socialist Party of Serbia supported, within preparations for the forthcoming session of the Serbian legislature, the proposed draft laws, 'to be accepted with an aim to alleviate the consequences of the aggression, and to help the country's renewal and development,' but did not say what those draft laws were."
* State news agency Tanjug (Belgrade) reported Monday a statement by the ruling Serbian Socialist Party (SPS): "Marginal politician and parties, who claim to wish to 'set fire to Serbia' and who are acting upon dictates from foreign mentors, continue their policy of high treason in the service of foreign interests, and they are trying to realize objectives which NATO failed to achieve with its aggression... The SPS is certain that the future of Serbia will be determined by its citizens and only those political forces which genuinely represent real popular and state interests can rely on their support."
Milosevic securing police loyalty; Seselj positioned for crackdown?
* The Sunday Telegraph (London) reported July 11 that "Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic last week consolidated his grip on the police, military and inner circle of loyal aides in an attempt to counter the unprecedented revolt in his traditional Serbian stronghold, the so-called 'Red South.'. The Yugoslav president has been shoring up his traditional power bases in the police and army as he braces for clashes this summer. Senior officers whose loyalty was not deemed to be absolute have been shifted to less influential posts in recent days in a mini-purge. Mr Milosevic also handed out more than 1,000 medals last week to boost morale. Among those decorated was Lt Col Sretan Lukic, an architect of Operation Horseshoe -- the Serbian military cover for the brutal campaign of ethnic cleansing in Kosovo."
* The Sunday Times (London) cited July 10 Vojislav Seselj's position in a possible reshuffling of the Federal government: "If, as expected, he is given the job of co-ordinating the work of the powerful security service (RDB), there is likely to be a crackdown against any opposition or criticism of Belgrade. Milosevic would be able to distance himself from any unpleasant repercussions."
Regime harassing opponents
* BETA news agency (Belgrade) reported Monday that "the Democratic Party said that it had learned from 'friends in the Yugoslav Army' that a party official and a representative in the Belgrade city assembly, Goran Vesic, was 'secretly sentenced to two years in prison for draft dodging and treason.' Vesic was sentenced in June at a secret trial about which neither Vesic nor anyone who could have defended him was informed, the Democrats said on July 11. The party termed the sentence as 'politically motivated,' and said that it was meant to prevent Vesic from taking part in the anti-regime activities performed by the Alliance for Change."
* BETA news agency reports today that an anti-Milosevic petition drive started in Cacak, "organized by the Alliance for Change, but the police gave an oral statement about the gathering being banned, removed the stands for signing the petition, and brought several citizens in for questioning. All of them were released after 20 minutes, except for the reporter of Radio Free Europe, Zoran Culafic, because he recorded the conversation between the officers and the chief of Cacak police. The tape was later returned to him and he was released, but was threatened not to broadcast the recording."
Wartime decrees to become law?
* Reuters reported Monday that "Serbia's parliament will meet on Thursday to vote on whether to turn some of the draconian rules introduced during NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia into laws. The official news agency Tanjug said Serbian President Milan Milutinovic would ask parliament to review and endorse the decrees he was authorised to introduce during the air strikes, which ended on June 12 after 11 weeks... [The decrees] include a ban on public gatherings, regulations requiring people to report any change of residence and the requirement for everyone over the age of 14 to have an identity document. The previous minimum age was 18. Police also gained extra powers under the state of war proclaimed during the conflict over Kosovo province, court proceedings were accelerated and limits on trade and financial flows were introduced... 'The president is obliged to submit the regulations to the parliament for review and endorsement as soon as the legislature is able to meet,' Tanjug said. Its report did not make
clear whether Milutinovic would ask the legislature to confirm all the regulations independent media have said some of the decrees, such as the one banning public gatherings, were automatically lifted with the ending of the State of War on June 26. But state media have not commented on their reports, leaving ordinary people in the dark over whether
demonstrations organised by opposition politicians, trade unions and sometimes individuals are illegal or not. Police have not intervened to prevent rallies so far but have detained several opposition activists and stopped people organising petitions calling for Milosevic's resignation."
III. MONTENEGRO EDGING TOWARD INDEPENDENCE
Federal negotiations set to fail?
* Reuters reported yesterday that "Montenegro's bid to gain equal powers with Serbia in Yugoslavia faced its first challenge on Tuesday when a junior partner in the ruling coalition rejected the proposal on the eve of talks in Belgrade. 'The proposal is unacceptable,' Montenegrin Deputy Prime Minister Dragisa Burzan told Reuters. 'It is unclear, imprecise and does not show what we want. It lacks a clear political profile,' he said by telephone. Burzan is a member of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which seeks independence from Serb-dominated Yugoslavia. It holds three ministerial posts in the cabinet and five of the coalition's 42 seats in the 78 seats republican parliament. 'If the document becomes the official government platform, SDP would have to leave the government,' Burzan said. He said the proposal amounted to an attempt to use Montenegro as a vehicle for political change in Serbia, something he said the West was pushing for but that he considered dangerous. Lower ranking officials of the ruling
parties of the two republics the Socialist Party of Serbia and the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro are set to meet on Wednesday in Belgrade for exploratory talks on the document."
* Associated Press July 10 quoted Predrage Drecun, an Montenegro government official: " 'This will be a take-it-or-leave-it offer to Serbia'. Anticipating Milosevic's rejection, Montenegrin leaders are already talking about independence."
The Financial Times noted Monday that "the agenda is so ambitious - seeking to establish full equality between the two republics and to reduce drastically the size and influence of Yugoslavia's federal institutions - that it appears designed to be rejected by Belgrade. If the talks fail, Montenegro could opt for independence. In this case, federal Yugoslavia would cease to exist and the job of federal president, the current position of Slobodan Milosevic, would become redundant. Whatever constitutional model is finally implemented, the package of economic reforms planned by Montenegro would virtually guarantee the republic economic independence.
Prof. Vukotic and leading local bankers such as Slavko Drljevic, general manager of Hipotekarna Banka, insist Montenegro must introduce its own currency, the convertible dinar, which would be backed by a currency board. The independent monetary policy is designed to protect Montenegro from the hyperinflation expected to develop in Serbia as Belgrade prints money to pay for the war and to pay off soldiers newly returned from Kosovo."
Belgrade charges 14,000 Montenegrins with avoiding draft; Djukanovic snubs
Milosevic
* Agence France Presse reported July 9 that "Yugoslav military judicial authorities have filed charges against 14,000 Montenegrins for draft-dodging, the newspaper Danas reported Friday, citing the Montenegrin branch of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights. 'This is a major violation of the freedom of opinion and conscience,' committee chief Slobodan Franovic said, according to the independent paper. Many journalists were targeted, Franovic said in his report, adding that the armed forces 'regularly intimidate Montenegrin citizens, especially in the northern part of the country.' "
* Associated Press reported yesterday that Montenegro's President Milo Djukanovic became "the first Montenegrin head of state since World War II to lay a wreath on the tomb of the unknown soldier without the Yugoslav army saluting during the ceremony. The army laid its own wreath about an hour before Djukanovic. In a statement issued later, it said its presence at the ceremony was part of the rules of service. On Monday, Milosevic sent a letter congratulating Montenegro on the anniversary of the Montenegrin uprising. Milosevic's letter was not carried by the state-run media in Montenegro."
Cook threatens "grave consequences" if Yugoslav troops used against Montenegro
* Associated Press reported yesterday thaat Britain's Foreign Secretary Robin Cook, "speaking about Montenegro said any attempt to use Yugoslav troops against the elected government would be met by 'grave consequences. We have deliberately left Milosevic guessing as to what those grave consequences might be.' "
IV. MILOSEVIC ISOLATION CONTINUES
Arbour calls genocide indictment "an open question"
* Agence France Presse reported yesterday that "international war-crimes prosecutor Louise Arbour voiced confidence here Tuesday that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic will be tried for crimes in Kosovo. Arbour told a press conference in the Kosovo capital that an indictment against Milosevic for the deportation, persecution, and murder of Kosovars was being backed up by corroborative evidence on the ground, and that the process was 'irreversible.' Arbour, chief prosecutor for the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), added that efforts to cover up war crimes were compelling evidence that they had been committed, and that it was almost impossible to eradicate all proof. In Kosovo, the tribunal's findings 'are corroborating the already very detailed supporting materials that we have tendered but not yet made public in support of the Milosevic indictment,' the prosecutor said. The court has not yet brought charges of genocide or crimes against humanity (exterminations) against t
he Yugoslav president, but Arbour did not rule out the possibility. 'I believe that this is going to remain an open question, and that there will come a point where we will have to review what has been revealed to us on site to determine whether additional charges of that nature are appropriate,' she said."
* Associated Press reported July 9: "The United States opposes a move among Serb opposition forces to find political sanctuary for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, Defense Secretary William Cohen said yesterday. Predicting increasing internal pressure to oust Milosevic, Cohen said the Serb leader's only place of asylum will be a war crimes tribunal in the Netherlands. 'He is an indicted war criminal,' Cohen said. 'If there is any place where he seeks sanctuary, perhaps I would recommend The Hague.' The comments came as senior Clinton administration officials were analyzing reports from Yugoslavia that opposition groups are considering options for finding political asylum for Milosevic in Belarus or Iraq as a quick path to the Serb leader's removal from power. There were no immediate indications today that Milosevic is prepared to seek asylum. Indeed, Cohen predicted Milosevic would launch a crackdown on opposition forces before considering yielding power... 'We are aware of reports of Serb opposition
efforts to find a political sanctuary for Milosevic and we're following those reports closely,' Pentagon spokesman Kenneth Bacon said. A senior U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity said any nation that offered Milosevic asylum would be risking the anger of the international community, which is lined up behind the war crimes indictment issued earlier this year against Milosevic in connection with killings in Kosovo."
Arkan to The Hague?
* The New York Times reports today that "the Serbian paramilitary leader Arkan has made inquiries about whether he would be safe from arrest if he moved to Belgium, a spokesman for the chief Belgian prosecutor said Tuesday. The spokesman, Jos Colpin, said Belgium's response was that if Arkan were found in Belgium, he would be detained and extradited to Germany, where there is a warrant for his arrest on criminal charges. An international arrest warrant was also issued in March, when the International War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague announced that it had indicted him in connection with war crimes in the Balkans in 1997. His inquiry suggests that he may no longer feel safe in Serbia, where there are growing signs of discontent with President Slobodan Milosevic. Arkan is often seen in Belgrade, where he spends much of his time. It is not known if he still has contacts with Milosevic, with whom he cooperated closely in the fighting during the breakup of Yugoslavia. While Arkan is protected at the moment by t
he Milosevic government, that could change. Milosevic has also been indicted by the tribunal in The Hague. The two men know a great deal about each other. If Arkan moved to Belgium, he would also be subject to extradition to the Netherlands, the seat of the tribunal. Officials in The Hague said the militia leader had not tried to contact the court or to seek a deal for himself. In Brussels Colpin said a lawyer there, Pierre Chome, contacted the office of the chief prosecutor in late June to ask what the chances were for Arkan to be allowed to live in Belgium. 'He was told there was no chance,' Colpin said, 'that if Arkan was found, he would be arrested. Perhaps he was just testing the water. Perhaps he wants to turn himself in to avoid being shot somewhere. We just don't know. We haven't heard anything since.' "
* A report posted July 13 on the MSNBC web site, citing "officials interviewed by MSNBC," said that on June 25 "according to a Belgian official, [a well-known Brussels lawyer]. told Benoit Dejemeppe [a Belgian state prosecutor] that Arkan wanted to turn himself in to Belgian authorities. Dejemeppe's office, which wanted to move quickly searched Interpol's database, but didn't find any warrant for his arrest for crimes against humanity. Interpol serves as a worldwide law enforcement clearinghouse on criminal activity. Officials at The Hague scrambled, eventually confirming that they did want Arkan. But the tribunal's original arrest warrant was served on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, possibly in an attempt to see if the government of President Slobodan Milosevic would detain and hand over Arkan. Tribunal officials at The Hague were contacted, but most ranking officials had left for the weekend. One official told MSNBC that it was 'jeans day,' or casual day, and there was simply no one around."
* The MSNBC report also noted: "In the past week, there's been a marked change in Arkan's routine in Belgrade. Arkan used to list his official job as 'counsel to the president' of the Obilic soccer club, which he owns. The 'president' was his wife, Ceca, a famous Serb folk singer. This week, Arkan and Ceca left their jobs at the soccer club. Arkan's cellular phone, once a direct line to him, is now answered by his secretary, who told MSNBC that he and his wife were on a 'business trip' in Yugoslavia and unreachable by phone. In Belgium, those allegedly connected to Arkan are lying low as well. Through his secretary, Brussels lawyer Chome would not comment on whether he was acting on Arkan's behalf on June 25. 'Monsieur Chome has no comment. I spoke to him. He is on vacation. You can call him next week.' " In a separate report posted on its web site hours earlier, MSNBC noted that "given what Arkan might know about the involvement of Milosevic and other top Yugoslav officials in a decade of war crimes, U.S.
government officials told MSNBC they were not surprised he would deny seeking a deal. The officials, who asked to remain anonymous, noted that mounting domestic and international pressure on Milosevic to step down has turned men like Arkan, once Milosevic allies, into potentially devastating enemies. 'He may feel he may get killed. He may feel that he can beat the charges,' one official said. Arkan has stuff on Milosevic. There is panic in the Milosevic group.' "
Milosevic allies reported "restless"
* The New York Times reported Monday that "about 300 of Mr. Milosevic's cronies, most of whom hold sizable bank accounts and property holdings abroad, are on a visa ban list created by the European Union before the NATO air strikes. Some of these people, including Bogoljub Karic, the owner of Serbian banks and a television station that toes the Milosevic political line, are getting restless. Mr. Karic is reported to have been turned back at the Serbian border with Hungary and is known to be complaining around Belgrade that he is unable to tend to his investments in London." BETA nedws agency (Belgrade) reported July 8 that "the savers of the Karic Banka [owned by Bogoljub Karic] branch in Cacak will protest in front of the headquarters of this bank in Novi Beograd tomorrow. They are dissatisfied with the delay in the payment of capital and interest on their savings' deposits. The Cacak savers will arrive in Belgrade as a group aboard a bus that will leave from Cacak branch of Karic Banka... tomorrow. Sevent
y savers of Karic Banka had pressed charges against Karic Banka before the
municipal court in Cacak, seeking the payment of their savings."
G-7 announces no reconstruction aid to Serbia; US agrees to aid opposition-controlled cities
* When asked yesterday whether "the Serbian towns who are supporting the ouster of Milosevic will be getting financial aid," US State Department spokesman James Rubin said: "We've made quite clear that we are not going to participate in the reconstruction of Serbia so long as Milosevic continues to lead that fundamentally undemocratic regime, and so long as he and his regime refuse to pursue the necessary democratic policies. We are and have said that we are going to provide humanitarian relief, as appropriate. Defining that relief is a challenge, and we're continuing to work on that challenge. And it would be our intent to channel humanitarian aid as a priority to those municipalities and localities where democratic change is most vibrant and successful." The New York Times reported Monday that "one way to make humanitarian aid set an example against Mr. Milosevic would be to organize the restoration of power at a hospital in a municipality where the opposition is in control, [Clinton administration] offici
als said."
* Deutsche Presse Agentur reported Monday that "international aid donors working to rebuild Kosovo said Tuesday that war-wrecked Serbia would be getting only humanitarian assistance but no reconstruction aid. 'The people of the former republic of Yugoslavia deserve a responsible, peaceful, democratic government,' said a high-level steering group on Kosovo composed of finance ministers from the world's seven richest industrial nations along with representatives from the European Commission and the World Bank. 'Until these conditions are met, ministers are resolved that no assistance will be provided to Yugoslavia other than humanitarian aid which addresses the most urgent, essential human needs,' the Group of Seven said."
