.--------------------------------------------
"If in 15 days, we wake up and they are still there, Serbia will come out onto
the streets in 50 towns with the message: 'We are staying on until you go.' "
Zoran Djindjic, Democratic Party leader
Agence France Presse, August 20 -- Belgrade
"The problem [for the opposition] is that there is no clear plan, and the old
foxes of the regime know that... Talking about the history of democracy in
Serbia is like talking about a vegetarian crocodile. It sounds nice, but does
not exist."
Nenad Canak, Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians leader
Quoted by the Christian Science Monitor, August 20 - Belgrade
"There is only one way through democratic early elections held by the end of
October or beginning of November. Otherwise we will face the hell of civil
war."
Vuk Draskovic, Serbian Renewal Movement leader
Quoted by Reuters, August 21 - Belgrade
"Our intention is to cause a split in the ruling parties, while Draskovic is
offering salvation for the regime."
Mladjan Dinkic, leader of the G-17 independent group of economists
Quoted by BETA news agency, August 24 - Belgrade
"If the regime does not change, the sovereignty of Yugoslavia over Kosovo will
be more and more contested... Conversely, the installation of a democratic
regime boosts the chances of a combination of Yugoslav sovereignty and Kosovo
autonomy... We [also] want to be able to ease [sanctions] and then lift them.
But at this stage nothing should be done that could be exploited by the current
regime. The Serb opposition to Milosevic understands this."
France's Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine
Quoted by Le Figaro (Paris), August 28 - Paris
"There can be no stability between Serbia and Montenegro as long as Milosevic
stays in power."
Dragan Soc, Montenegro's Minister of Justice
Interviewed in Vienna Der Standard, August 18 - Podgorica
"We do believe that Milosevic's efforts to consolidate power have led to
repeated violations of the Yugoslav federal constitution, in particular the
rights and privileges of Montenegro. In particular, Belgrade has sought to
strip Montenegro's constitutional rights and powers and has prevented
Montenegro from playing its constitutional role in the federal government. We
continue to believe that Montenegro's leaders have demonstrated a measured and
rational approach to political and economic reform, which we support. We
commend their efforts to work within the FRY for reforms that would bring
democracy and a better life to all Yugoslav citizens."
US State Department spokesman James Rubin
August 5 - Washington
------------------------------------------------
I. FURTHER CRACKS REPORTED IN REGIME
* The Financial Times reported August 25 that "sources said Mr Milosevic was
also concerned at the low morale within the SPS [ruling Socialist Party] and
signs of disintegration. Boguljub Karic, one of the richest Serbs and head of
the Brothers Karic business empire, has tendered his resignation from the
Serbian government, as has Mirko Marjanovic, the prime minister, on health
grounds. Rumors are also sweeping Belgrade about the loyalty of Milan
Milutinovic, Serbia's president, and Zoran Lilic, recently removed as federal
Yugoslav deputy prime minister."
* Agence France Presse reported August 23 that Vladan Batic, coordinator of the
coalition Alliance for Change and head of the Christian Democrat Party, told
reporters: " 'The regime has nowhere to go, since it has been surrounded from
all sides. The cracks in the system are increasing day by day,' He did not
state exactly which members of the Milosevic regime had had these contacts, and
the report could not be independently confirmed. But Batic said that 'several
top officials' of Milosevic's regime 'went to see [US Balkan Envoy Robert]
Gelbard' who had a series of meetings with the Alliance and other opposition
figures in early August in Serbia's partner republic Montenegro. 'Several
people from the top of the regime are trying to pull out, looking for a retreat
for themselves,' said Batic, a coordinator of the Alliance. 'They are sending
different messages everywhere. There are sways and hesitations and his
(Milosevic's) hierarchy is not as firm as it has been so far,' Batic said....
Among those seeking to distance themselves from the regime, according to Batic,
are the Serbian minister for privatisation, the wealthy Bogoljub Karic,
vice-premier Ratko Markovic, in charge of Kosovo, Zoran Lilic, the Yugoslav
deputy premier who was dismissed earlier this month, and Vukasin Jokanovic,
Yugoslav state prosecutor."
* A report on Karic entitled "Lots of Promises No Results," published August
20 in state-run weekly Politika, alleged that Karic had "did more harm than
good" to the state in his business dealings, citing as "an illustrative
example... the credit arrangement between the Karic Bank and the Belgrade
Thermo Power Plants for paying of imported gas... which Karic is now canceling.
According to information we obtained in this [Yugoslav Energy] ministry, the
Belgrade Power Plants signed a contract with Karic Bank on 14 January 1999,
arranging for a loan of 240 million dinars... So far Karic Bank paid the Power
Plants 59,286,526 dinars, and as called for by the contract, prepaid another
2,331,852 German Marks. Even though the Karic Bank did not pay the Power Plants
the entire sum of approved loans and paid only one seventh of the agreed sum,
Karic Bank charged interest on the entire agreed sum. So, it turns out that the
Karic Bank is charging 25.35 dinars for one German Mark. Since Karic's original
condition was that the calculated value of the mark should be 12.6 dinars and
this was at a time when the mark was 7 dinars on the black market it turns
out, on the basis of the agreed exchange rate, that the Bank owes 2,128,602
marks, in other words, that the Belgrade Power Plants paid 26,820,280 dinars
more than the Karic Bank had exchanged into hard currency."
* Independent Radio B2-92 (Belgrade) reported on August 19: "The spokesman for
the Yugoslav United Left [JUL--ruling coalition party] in Novi Sad, Roman
Vehovec, today resigned from his post and renounced his JUL membership in
disgust over the party's policy. In a letter distributed to the media, Vehovec
called on all honorable members of JUL to publicly distance themselves from the
party's activities as soon as possible and contribute to the halting of the
general state of decline. He said that the JUL was unscrupulously participating
in the deepening of dramatic social differences and in the preservation of an
unproductive and backward authority."
* Radio B2-92 reported August 25 that "a number of officials have been to see
[US Balkan envoy Robert] Gelbard. It is not only people from the Alliance for
Change who have been to see him. In an attempt to secure a retreat for
themselves, several officials from the very top of the regime have been trying
to pull out. They have been sending messages all over the place asking for the
embargo on those 300 people [regime officials and leading supporters under visa
ban in Europe and North America] to be lifted. They will renounce Slobo
[Yugoslavia's President Slobodan Milosevic] and Milo [Serbia's President Milan
Milutinovic] for ever in order to be allowed by the EU to leave the country.
Their hierarchy is no longer as monolithic as it has been so far. There are
pressures, cracks, there is [wealthy ex-minister Bogoljub] Karic, [Deputy Prime
Minister] Ratko Markovic, [Yugoslav State Prosecutor] Vukasin Jokanovic and
[former deputy Prime Minister Zoran] Lilic - two, three, five - their number is
growing and we will soon see other sensations. Statements of different nature
and different tenor will start coming from within the General Staff soon. At
the same press conference Batic said that no representative of the present
regime had tried to make contacts with the Alliance of Change."
* In an August 24 broadcast, Radio B2-92 noted: "Several generals of the
Yugoslav Army's 3rd Army have issued a statement saying that the Yugoslav Army
will prevent a fratricidal war. They said that the Yugoslav Army was no longer
a political institution and that it would not play a role on the political
stage, but would unreservedly respect the political will displayed by the
people of Yugoslavia at elections. In a letter published by [the Belgrade-based
daily] 'Blic'today, Generals Ljubisa Stojimirovic, Vladimir Lazarevic, Negoslav
Nikolic, Tomislav Mladenovic and Milan Djakovic warned against the dangerous
claims, in circulation for some time now, that the Yugoslav Army and Gen
[Nebojsa] Pavkovic [Third Army commander] were angry with the opposition and
that Pavkovic had threatened some members of the opposition."
II. SPLITS IN OPPOSITION, REGIME AMID PUBLIC DEMONSTRATIONS
Big Belgrade demonstration showcases public discontent, opposition divisions
* The Daily Telegraph (London) reported August 20 that "more than "100,000
people demanded the resignation of Slobodan Milosevic in Belgrade last night...
In the biggest demonstration in Serbia for three years, protesters carried
banners outside the National Assembly building saying 'Slobo, please just
go'... and chanted 'Red Bandits.' " Reuters noted August 20 that "the campaign
to oust President Slobodan Milosevic has got a shot in the arm with a mass
protest rally in Belgrade but the demonstration barely papered over the cracks
between his bitterly divided opponents. More than 100,000 people turned out to
hear opposition leaders tell them it was high time that Milosevic stepped
down. Thereafter the messages were mixed, with one giving him just 15 days to
step down, another setting a deadline of September 21 and a third calling for
elections in November."
* The New York Times noted August 20 that "the opposition's rivalries and
clashing strategies were... on display Thursday, with the drama of the night
being the effort of Vuk Draskovic, leader of the Serbian Renewal Movement, the
largest party in the opposition, to hijack a rally he had sworn he would not
attend.... In a clumsy bit of political fakery booed by many in the crowd, Mr.
Draskovic, who had withdrawn his name from the list of speakers, essentially
crashed the rally, coming on stage surrounded by bodyguards, in response, he
said, to the demands of his supporters in the crowd. His ploy was an almost
exact re-creation of a sudden appearance by Mr. Milosevic at a rally on the
spot 10 years ago. While Mr. Draskovic was almost forced by the size of the
turnout to attend, he also criticized many of the ideas of other opposition
leaders, saying that early elections under fair conditions were the only
sensible way to change Serbia and finally overthrow Mr. Milosevic." Independent
news agency BETA (Belgrade) reported August 20 that "Vuk Draskovic, the leader
of the largest parliamentary opposition party, the Serbian Renewal Movement,
put in an unexpected appearance at the podium, although he was not on the
announced list of speakers, and in a long speech called for the scheduling of
early elections in Serbia and peaceful changes, telling the assembled people
that transitional governments cannot be formed in the streets. Draskovic's
speech was interrupted with whistling and shouts 'Vuk, go away!' Immediately
after his speech, Draskovic left the rally."
* The New York Times reported August 20 "there was no immediate response from
the Milosevic government to the opposition demands or to the protest Thursday,
but government-controlled news media on Friday sought to play down the size of
the demonstration, paint its organizers as pawns of the United States and the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization and emphasize splits in opposition ranks.
The newspaper Politika, considered a Milosevic mouthpiece, called the gathering
a ''NATO rally,'' said it had been a ''failure'' and published a photo of
protesters fleeing a tear-gas grenade that exploded in the crowd shortly after
the event started."
* The Daily Telegraph (London) reported August 20: "Milosevic's unpopularity
was underlined on Wednesday night when more than 50,000 football fans chanted
anti-regime slogans after a power cut interrupted the Yugoslavia v Croatia
European championship tie. The state-controlled broadcaster switched to a
studio discussion rather than allow the chants to be heard by viewers. The
power cut is likely to be the first of many following the 11-week NATO
bombardment and some observers believe Milosevic could call a snap election
before winter." The New York Times reported August 19 that when the lights went
out, "suddenly chants aimed at Mr. Milosevic echoed around the stadium, with
many of the 60,000 people there yelling, 'Slobo leave!' and a chant that goes
in part, 'Slobo, you've sold out Kosovo!' "
* Independent news agency BETA (Belgrade) reported August 24 that
"approximately 6,000 people demonstrated against Yugoslav President Slobodan
Milosevic and backed the opposition Alliance for Change at a rally in the town
of Smederevo on Aug. 23. The rally, organized by the Alliance, turned out to
be the largest ever held in Smederevo. It was opened by Vuk Obradovic,
president of the Social Democracy party, who said Serbia was a poor country
with rich government officials. Alliance for Change coordinator Vladan Batic
and author Svetislav Basara reiterated demands for Milosevic's resignation and
stressed the importance of forming a transitional government headed by former
Yugoslav central bank governor Dragoslav Avramovic. In Kragujevac, several
hundred people were present at the 30th protest rally in a row organized by the
Alliance for Change and Alliance of Democratic Parties. Here, too,
demonstrators demanded that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic step down and
that his regime leave power.
* Reuters reported August 18 that "Serbian opposition leaders attracted a
record 25,000 people to a protest rally in Nis, on the eve of a major
demonstration in Belgrade against Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. ...
Police kept a low profile at the rally, as at previous demonstrations, most
which have only attracted only around four or five thousand people each. But
official concern about the protest movement was visible in the sudden
reappearance, after a month of shortages, of cheap edible oil, sugar, flour and
gasoline in the town, around 170 miles southwest of Belgrade."
American officials meet with opposition
* BETA news agency reported August 24 that "representatives of the Serbian
opposition have been holding talks today in Budva with James Dobbins, the new
US envoy for the Balkans, Vladan Batic, coordinator of the Alliance for Change,
confirmed for Beta. In a telephone conversation, Batic said that, in addition
to himself, the talks had been attended by Zoran Djindjic, leader of the
Democratic Party; Vuk Obradovic of Social Democracy; Velimir Ilic of New
Serbia; Nebojsa Covic of the Democratic Alternative; Miodrag Isakov of the
Reformist Democratic Party of Vojvodina; Branislav Kovacevic of the Sumadija
Coalition; and Maja Tasic, member of the presidency of the Civic Alliance of
Serbia. Batic said that the representatives of the opposition had asked the US
diplomat to 'help find a mechanism to protect' the Serbs in Kosovo and secure
the return of the Serbian refugees...leaders of the Alliance for Change, Batic
added, conveyed to James Dobbins the alliance's views of Serbia's
democratization, that is, that it is necessary to have Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia President Slobodan Milosevic step down and then to have a
transitional government formed and elections organized at all levels. The
participants in the talks agreed that 'only a democratic Serbia and Yugoslavia'
could count on being reintegrated into the European and world institutions,
Batic said."
Regime reported moving to early elections
* Reuters said August 27 that "Serbia's leftwing ruling coalition has decided
to organise early local elections on November 7 and hold a general election on
the same day if the opposition agrees, a Serbian newspaper said on Wednesday.
The report in the independent Blic daily, which cited a highly placed source in
the coalition, follows government hints it might call an early poll to try to
defuse an opposition campaign to oust Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.
The opposition Democratic Party responded by saying Serbia had never had fully
free and fair elections and there was no reason to think the government would
change its spots now. 'Popular protests throughout Serbia have scared the
regime, which is now trying to keep them at bay by announcing some kind of
early elections,' it said in a statement... Blic said 30 seats from Kosovo,
which went to the government in the last election, would remain empty, and be
filled only after the expiry of the U.N. mission there. It said the ruling
parties expected the opposition to take 90 seats in the 250member Serbian
parliament, leaving the parties run by Milosevic and his wife with a majority
in coalition with the ultranationalist Radicals."
*The Washington Times noted August 19 that "President Slobodan Milosevic's
party offered yesterday to hold early elections - a last-minute concession
aimed at defusing Yugoslavia's political crisis... 'We believe that there are
more important things on the nations's agenda than the elections, but if the
opposition wants that, so be it, Ivica Dacic, a spokesman for Milosevic's
ruling Socialist party, told the Associated Press." The Guardian (London)
reported August 20 that "in reality, President Milosevic could be well-advised
to call elections this autumn. His position is stronger now than it was
directly after NATO's bombing campaign. His advisers may be calculating that
the president's fortunes cannot get much better, but can certainly get worse."
The Washington Post reported August 20: "The move appeared to reflect a
calculation that the opposition parties may be too deeply divided to win -- and
that the situation can only get worse for Milosevic the longer he waits to take
action. The government especially dreads the onset of winter, when the country
is expected to face a heating crisis because of a shortage of electricity.
Political analysts also see the offer of early elections as a ploy to buy time
so Milosevic can further undermine the opposition and defuse pressure on him to
resign. Opposition parties are split on conditions for new elections, with some
insisting that they should be held only after Milosevic steps down and once
changes are made to election and media laws that favor his government."
*State-run Radio Belgrade August 26 noted that Serbia's Vice Premier and leader
of the Serbian Radical Party "[Vojislav] Seselj... replying to journalists'
questions... denied that the Radicals had agreed with coalition partners about
calling local elections for November. Nobody is going to prevent early
elections, Seselj said, and pointed out that the Radicals are advocating that
local elections be held by end of the year, federal elections in the spring,
and republican elections about the end of next year. The Radicals are also
ready for elections at all levels to be held on the same day, Seselj said."
* Reuters reported August 23 that "opposition leaders are particularly
concerned over possible early local polls, fearing Milosevic may try to take
over the local power bases that they are using to organise the protests, which
they plan to accelerate next month. Blic said the government would ask the
opposition to agree to hold a general election alongside the local poll on
November 7, adding that it might be ready to meet two opposition demands. These
are the abolition of a restrictive information law and the presence of a
mission from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to
monitor the election process." Reuters noted August 19 that Serbian Radical
Party Leader and deputy Prime Minister of Serbia Vojislav Seselj "fueled fears
among the opposition by saying local elections should be held before
parliamentary and presidential polls." BETA news agency reported "the Belgrade
daily Blic on Aug. 25 carried a statement from a source close to the ruling
establishment, saying that the elections...would only be at the local level,
with general elections possibly being held later."
Draskovic agrees to early elections, favors negotiations with Milosevic
* BETA news agency reported August 23 that "speaking on Studio B television,
Serbian Renewal Movement [SPO] president Vuk Draskovic repeated on Aug. 22 his
previous stand that the concept of forming transitional governments for Serbia
and Yugoslavia was 'destroyed in the Belgrade rally,' again backing the holding
of early elections before the year is out as a way of overcoming the political
crisis. However, he added that his party rejects the idea of Serbia being a
single voting district, instead supporting having numerous voting districts and
a proportional electoral system at all levels of government. As preconditions
for elections, Draskovic named amendments to the Serbian Information Law and
changes in the editorial policy of state television." State news agency Tanjug
reported August 22: "Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) chairman Vuk Draskovic
voiced his determined opposition this evening to those on the opposition
political scene who are promoting civil war and violence, saying that he and
his party would not let blood flow in Serbia. In an interview with TV Studio
B....the SPO leader gave his support to 'real change, without violence,' adding
that 'a government elected in democratic elections would not be isolated from
the world.' "
* Reuters reported August 21 that "Draskovic Friday ruled out further contacts
with other members of the opposition, who he blamed for the unfriendly
reception he got at a mass protest rally in Belgrade.... He said the idea of
interim governments had been buried Thursday night [August 19] and reiterated
that the only way to change the current regime was through early elections that
should be held by the last quarter of this year... Draskovic said street
protests were not excluded as a means of forcing the government into accepting
international rules for the polls, but said direct negotiations should be tried
first."
* BETA news agency noted August 23 that "the start of Renewal's election
campaign was also marked by firmly placing the operations of TV station Studio
B to work for the interests of the party. Studio B, which is controlled by
Renewal as the ruling party in Belgrade, on several occasions on the day
following the rally broadcast an edited report from the rally, sans the
whistles against Draskovic. Vuk Draskovic was presented as the keynote speaker
at the rally, while supporters of other opposition parties were described as
"so-called democrats" and the like. At the start of this week the Renewal
Movement additionally intensified the campaign, indirectly suggesting that a
clear enemy tie exists between the Alliance for Changes and NATO, that is to
say those who had bombed the country. This was an effort to bring the
opposition party closer to the ruling coalition, which bases its campaign
against the opposition on the stand that they are "traitorous" and that they
wish to allow NATO countries to occupy Serbia."
* A report in today's New York Times, based on an interview with Serbia's
Democracy Party leader Zoran Djindjic, said: "Djindjic says free elections will
not be possible while Milosevic is President. Still, in the interview
Djindjic said clearly for the first time that his party and the larger
opposition coalition, the Alliance for Change, would have to take part in early
elections, even with Milosevic in power that they could not credibly boycott
the vote, as they did in 1997. But he said they would try to organize the
election as 'a referendum on Milosevic,' running slates of candidates that did
not include party leaders but would be headed by respected nonpoliticians like
Dragoslav Avramovic, the former Central Bank head who brought down
Yugoslavia's hyperinflation in 1994, and Momcilo Perisic, who was fired by
Milosevic in November as army chief of staff. After meeting with American
officials, Djindjic said he had assurances that these men would agree to lead
such a slate. 'We'd say O.K. to elections, but have two million in the streets
to wait for the results as a kind of electoral control,' he said. He would hope
that street pressure and the imploding of the Government would cause Milosevic
to step down, so that 'truly free elections' could then take place with all
party leaders running."
* Agence France Presse August 26 quoted Djindjic:" 'We don't want these
elections... Elections with Milosevic in power will be manipulated. We are
seeking other means - by democratic protest. There must be changes first of
all.' Djindjic, head of the Democratic Party (DS) which dominates the
opposition Alliance for Change in Serbia, reiterated his view that a temporary
government of technocrats in Yugoslavia must first of all demolish Milosevic's
monopoly of power before elections can be held. Associated Press noted August
23 that "Djindjic and the Alliance are saying there could be no free and fair
vote with Milosevic in power. ''The precondition is that Milosevic goes,''
Batic told reporters Monday."
* Independent news service BETA (Belgrade) reported August 24 that "Mladjan
Dinkic, one of the authors of the Serbian Stability Pact, expressed on Aug. 23
the hope that a transitional government of experts would be formed if the
Serbian Renewal Movement were willing to sign a political agreement to that
effect and abandon its plans to call for the holding of early elections under
existing conditions. If Renewal runs in early elections at this time, that
will be a sign that this party 'has definitely made an alliance with the
regime,' Dinkic said in a statement to BETA. Dinkic, who is also coordinator
of the G-17 group of independent economists, said early elections should not be
held now because conditions are 'irregular,' because of possible power outages
during polling and return processing, and because there is a 'blockade of the
media.' "
* Reuters reported August 26 that the "Democratic Party and its allies are
trying to force Milosevic to step aside before a poll, fearing he might
manipulate the results. They also fear Draskovic. 'The realistic possibility
that some opposition parties might come to Milosevic's rescue after elections
by forming a government with him is an additional danger to that posed by the
alltoofamiliar rigging ways,' the party said on Wednesday."
* BETA news agency reported August 20 that "sources close to the ruling
coalition told BETA that Draskovic had met with the Yugoslav President,
Slobodan Milosevic, two days ago, with whom he discussed the holding of
elections, among other matters. The holding of extraordinary elections will
follow changes in the Serbian government, which will be announced later this
week."
* The New York Times reported August 22 that "last week, Mr. Milosevic's party
leaked a story that he had met Mr. Draskovic secretly to work out a deal on
early elections. While Mr. Draskovic vehemently denied any meeting, he does
favor early elections, and his aides blame the leak on Mr. Djindjic. Whatever
the truth, the leak was a brilliant stroke to widen opposition divisions and
make a bad relationship even worse." The New York Times noted August 23 that
"many disappointed despisers of Mr. Milosevic say the Draskovics have become
afraid of revolutionary disorder, corrupted and co-opted, more interested in
replacing the leader at the top than in destroying his system of crony
capitalism and special favors."
* In an August 22 interview with independent weekly NIN (Belgrade), Ognjen
Pribicevic, advisor to the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) said: " 'Elections.
That is no reserve option, that is the first option for the SPO, because it
feels very strongly and believes it could score a high result. We tasked the
interim government with organizing fair and democratic elections, immediately
after the sanctions are lifted.' In response to being asked if the SPO was in
danger of repeating the mistake it made in 1997 and failing to win a majority,
Pribicevic said: "Circumstances have changed, and the SPO is much stronger than
it was. The SPO will take part in elections that would enable a fair democratic
contest. The way the RTS [State-run Radio-Television Serbia] is established now
makes that impossible, which means we must discuss electoral conditions. But we
also believe the other opposition parties will not boycott elections, if fair
and democratic conditions are secured."
* The Washington Post reported August 20: "According to a recent poll by
Belgrade's Partner agency, opposition groups have been gaining in popularity,
but are still far from receiving majority support. If an election were held
today, the poll of 1,000 citizens in 32 municipalities said, Draskovic's
Serbian Renewal Movement would get 18.1 percent of the vote, and the rival
Alliance for Change would receive 14.8 percent. The three parties in
Milosevic's ruling coalition would get a total of 24 percent, the poll
indicated. Nearly 30 percent of those polled were either undecided or would
boycott the election."
* Belgrade daily Blic August 25 quoted Momcilo Perisic, the ex-General fired by
President Milosevic, on the prospect of early elections: "The leaders of the
Movement [Perisic's recently formed opposition party] must not set the struggle
for power as their chief goal, but struggle for the salvation of the people and
state. This does not mean that in securing conditions for democratic elections,
members of the Movement would not take part in elections. Whoever wins the
confidence of the electorate must be prepared to stay in power for as long as
the results are good and for as long as the people want him to stay, and not
for as long as he wants to usurp power. The way out of the crisis is in early
elections, but only under equal conditions for all that is European and
international electoral conditions."
Transition government proposal not agreed; Alliance sees strikes,
demonstrations
* BETA news agency reported August 26 that "it had been the intention of the
organizers of the [August 19] rally in Belgrade for the opposition parties to
sign a Political Contract accepting to form a transitional government in
Serbia. However, the contract [would] lack enough signatories to be of
significance. The Serbian Renewal Movement does not wish a transitional
government and has rejected all such ideas. The Alliance for changes does not
wish to reject the concept of a transitional government, but believes the idea
has yet to be well founded."
* Radio B2-92 reported August 23: "The Alliance for Change [SZP-Serbian
opposition coalition] has announced it will not sign the political agreement on
forming a transitional government, initiated by Mladjan Dinkic, the G-17 [group
of independent economists] coordinator and organizer of the protest rally on
19th August. Coordinator of the Alliance for Change Vladan Batic tells B2-92
the reasons behind this decision: 'The first reason is that we have not
received any invitation, and it is absolutely incorrect to go to the
Patriarchate [where the agreement was to be signed] without an invitation from
the Patriarch or the Synod. The second reason is that the political agreement
refers primarily to the parliamentary parties. The Alliance for Change is a
coalition of non-parliamentary parties and there is simply no reason for
signing that agreement. The third reason is that the political agreement should
represent an agreement between the parties on all aspects of the Stability Pact
for Serbia and this agreement has not yet been reached. The fourth reason is
that the strategy of the Alliance for Change has been long known. We do not
want to make any pacts or agreements with the current government. Any pact with
the current government would mean prolonging the agony of the people and of the
country. We demand categorically the resignations of Slobodan Milosevic, Milan
Milutinovic and other leaders of the federal and Serbian governments. It is
only then that the transitional government should be formed, and it should then
call free and fair elections. Therefore, anything that departs from our
demands, we cannot accept or sign."
Pensioners, independent trade union restive
* Reuters reported August 24 that "Serbia's independent trade unions threatened
on Tuesday to call for mass worker protests if the Serbian and Yugoslav
presidents did not resign in two weeks. Members of the independent workers'
movement, which like the political opposition is deeply divided, met on Tuesday
to try to overcome their differences and agree on how to help the campaign to
overthrow Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. 'Our declaration proposes a
deadline by which the regime should leave power. If it doesn't we'll meet again
and decide on the date and organisation of a general strike,' the president of
the Association of the Free and Independent Trade Unions, Dragan Milovanovic,
told Reuters. Milovanovic said the participants in the meeting had agreed to
set a deadline of September 10. They would then decide on the form of a
'general strike,' a term which has previously meant short protest actions
rather than an allout stoppage. Milovanovic, whose trade union is a member of
the opposition umbrella grouping Alliance for Change, which has set a slightly
different deadline, said the call was independent of other ultimatums set by
various opposition groups. 'We know the opposition called for general strike,
but though we are members of the Alliance for Change this action is a rather
independent one,' added Milovanovic. The representative of the strongest
nongovernment trade union 'Independence,' Nebojsa Savic, said it would be hard
to organize a general strike in Serbia because the government kept workers
under strict control."
* Reuters reported August 26 that "the Serbian government has decided to pay
off some of its burgeoning debt to pensioners in coupons, a move which
underlined its growing cash crisis and sparked protests by pensioners in
Belgrade. Around 1,000 pensioners staged a protest march in the capital on
Thursday, outraged by the government decision the previous evening. The decree
passed by the Serbian government late on Wednesday promised the country's 1.4
million pensioners coupons for electricity, coal and firewood as a settlement
for pensions that went unpaid in May, June and July this year. 'This will
significantly improve the financial position of the pensioners and protect the
most endangered class of citizens, which is one of the priority economic policy
aims for the second half of 1999 and a strategic direction in the further
implementation of reforms,' the government said in a statement."
Reuters reported August 27 that "Serbia could face economic collapse within a
few months, a leading local economist said on Friday. 'With its latest
policies, the government is abolishing money and introducing coupons. First
it was petrol, and now electricity. I wouldn't be surprised to see more goods
distributed in this way,' Miroljub Labus, chief macroeconomist with Belgrade's
Economics Institute, told a news conference. He was referring to the latest
Serbian government decision to settle part of its debt to pensioners by giving
them coupons for electricity, coal and firewood instead of cash. 'This has
become an isolated war economy, a barter economy. The result is a small and
closed system which is a huge leap back from a market economy,' he said. The
coupons would lead to a hidden printing of money without any backing in hard
currency, he said. 'The real problems will come after the winter when we expect
a severe liquidity crisis,' he said, adding that the state would by then have
more problems funding imports of medicine and fuel."
III. MONTENEGRO-SERBIA TENSIONS GROWING
Belgrade steps up pressure following Podgorica's proposal to "redefine"
relations
* Associated Press reported today that "about two thousand Montenegrin
supporters of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic rallied Saturday against
their tiny republic's leadership, accusing it of trying to break up
Montenegro's already shaky federation with Serbia. The protesters, gathered in
the northern Montenegrin town of Andrijevica, close to the state border with
Serbia, threatened that if the federation splits, they would secede their part
of Montenegro and attach it to Serbia, the independent Beta news agency
reported... Montenegro's deputy premier, Novak Kilibarda, said the protest was
staged by Milosevic' loyalists and was 'an attempt to destabilize Montenegro.'
"
* State-run Radio Montenegro (Podgorica) reported August 19 that: "Montenegro
harbors no illusions that the current Serbian authorities will respond
positively to the Montenegrin government's platform on future relations between
the two republics in the Yugoslav federation, the Montenegrin president's aide,
Miodrag Vukovic, has said. Such illusions were dispersed by the statement by
the Serbian, and now also Yugoslav, deputy prime minister, Tomislav Nikolic,
who described the Montenegrin proposal as nonsense. Nikolic, who advocates a
project of a unitary Yugoslavia, is defending a federal Yugoslavia from us -
sincere federalists who created such a Yugoslavia, Vukovic said. Vukovic added
that Tomislav Nikolic's statement was a warning to Montenegro that this was how
the entire ruling structure in Serbia was reasoning. He said that the
Montenegrin authorities could wait for another month or two for a reply from
the Serbian authorities on the proposal on future relations, and added that
things had to be clarified and resolved by the end of the year."
* The New York Times reported August 21 that "[Tomislav] Nikolic, the deputy
prime minister of Yugoslavia, has said that if Montenegro goes ahead with the
referendum 'the army will have to get involved.'....Andrija Perisic, an
executive member of Montenegro's ruling Democratic Party of Socialists, said he
and other Montenegrin officials are convinced that Belgrade is secretly
preparing 'the same scenario that was used in Kosovo.' The reported also noted:
"The political leadership in Montenegro says that in recent days the generals
and admirals who command some 10,000 Yugoslav soldiers and sailors here have
become antagonistic and uncooperative... 'The Yugoslav Navy abuses its
privileges in the port,' said Mico Orlandic, Bar's Deputy Mayor. 'During the
NATO air strikes the navy fired missiles at NATO planes and blocked entry to
the port. We were powerless to stop them.' 'The navy ships stop freighters
coming into the harbor to carry out inspections and look for arms,' he said.
'The army, when it leaves its barracks, sets up unauthorized roadblocks and
seizes goods. When we try to speak to the high command, they ignore us, as if
this is not our country. If the conflict worsens, we expect Belgrade to try to
seize the port.' "
* State news agency Tanjug (Belgrade) reported that in an August 20 statement,
the Yugoslav United Left Party (JUL), which is headed by Mira Markovic, wife of
Slobodan Milosevic, JUL called the plan "an unconstitutional and separatist
scheme [and urged Montenegrin citizens] to use democratic means to make sure
that the dictatorship is removed from the political scene." State-run news
agency Tanjug reported August 22 that: "Asked about developments in Montenegro,
Draskovic said that preparations were under way in that republic for 'an orgy
and a great evil of tribal and other conflicts.' Draskovic added that he could
not understand why the regime in Montenegro was falling for this strategy."
* BETA independent news agency (Belgrade) reported August 20: ''Serious
attention is being drawn to a whole spider's web that is being woven around
Montenegro by Slobodan Milosevic's regime and his internal forces in
Montenegro,' [Montenegrin Deputy Prime Minister Novak] Kilibarda said. He
assessed the information about federal police forces being formed in Bijelo
Polje as 'quite intimidating....Such intentions by these forces are no
surprise, and if the information about some paramilitary formations being
formed in Bijelo Polje under Dedinje's [Belgrade district where Milosevic
resides] control is true, the Montenegrin Government should react,' Kilibarda
said. He assessed that the Montenegrin platform on redefining relations between
Montenegro and Serbia had been forced and that it was considered as
Montenegro's self-defense.' "
* BETA news agency reported August 20: "The Federal [Yugoslav] Secretariat for
Foreign Affairs has not extended the diplomatic passport of Montenegrin
Economics Minister Vojin Djukanovic over a month after the request was
submitted, Podgorica 'Pobjeda' reports. [Montenegro's President Milo]
Djukanovic assessed that this was 'yet another incomprehensible move' with
which the federal government is trying to harm Montenegro and that they
probably feel bad that more than 300 officials from Belgrade cannot travel
anywhere. 'They are behaving according to the logic that 'the neighbour's cow
should die as well.' Really, one can no longer deal with people like that,'
Djukanovic said."
International community on Montenegro independence moves
* Reuters reported yesterday "the European Union told Montenegro on Friday it
did not believe it was in the interest of the small Yugoslav republic or the
region for it to become independent from Serbia. Finland's Hann Mantyvaar, head
of a threemember EU delegation to Montenegro to discuss the possibility of
lifting some sanctions imposed on Yugoslavia for its Kosovo policy, urged
Belgrade to open a dialogue with its junior partner on future constitutional
arrangements. While saying the will of the people should be respected, the
Finnish diplomat, representing the EU presidency, said: 'But we still want to
believe that it would not be in the interest of the region and not even of
Montenegro herself to move to full independence.' In a statement he said the EU
understood the current situation in Serbia, which has become increasingly
isolated from the rest of Europe during the 10year rule of Yugoslav President
Slobodan Milosevic, but urged Montenegro to be patient."
* Der Standard (Vienna) reported on August 20: "Austria supports Montenegrin
President Milo Djukanovic's policy of reform 'because it could be a model for
the entire Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to embark on the path towards
democracy and the market economy.' Gerhard Jandl, a high-ranking Foreign
Ministry official who is responsible for Yugoslavia, adds that Djukanovic's
efforts to integrate all ethnic groups into the government are another positive
argument. Montenegro's independence efforts are supported neither by Austria
nor by the EU. 'We think that, for stability reasons, it is better for
Montenegro to stay in the Yugoslav federation provided that Yugoslavia becomes
democratic and protects the rights of its minorities. Should President Slobodan
Milosevic remain in power, then the question of Montenegrin independence will
have to be discussed,' Jandl said. Everything will then depend on the
circumstances."
* Independent news agency Montena-Fax(Podgorica) reported August 26 that "the
USA is not directly opposed to the establishment of the full international
subjectivity of Montenegro, considering this to be an internal matter of
Montenegro and its citizens, today's [Podgorica daily] 'Vijesti' reported,
adding that Montenegrin officials had learned this from members of a US State
Department delegation who, together with an OSCE delegation, were meeting
Montenegrin party leaders and prominent public figures. According to the
independent Podgorica daily, the talks are mostly focused on the Montenegrin
government's platform on new relations with Serbia. Sources close to the top
Montenegrin state leadership have quoted their guests as saying that they
'respect Montenegro's right to self-determination, but are asking us to show an
understanding for the problems in the neighborhood.' In this respect, the State
Department officials backed the Badinter Commission's report of 1991, which
noted that the SFRY [Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia] had
disintegrated and that all its former members were equal successors to the
SFRY." When asked about the report yesterday, US State Department spokesman
James Foley said: "That's not true... [There is] no change in our policy."
Montenegro preparing currency pegged to German mark
* TV Crna Gora (Montenegro's state television) reported August 19: "Professor
Steve Hancke of Johns Hopkins University, presidential adviser, has told
Podgorica newspaper 'Monitor' that the monetary system [envisioned in
Podgorica's recent proposal to redefine relations between Montenegro and
Serbia] in Montenegro will be based on dual currency. The German mark will
become a legal method of payment along with the currency set by the monetary
council. Citizens will be able to use other foreign currencies, including the
Yugoslav dinar. Both the Montenegrin mark - the monetary council's currency -
and the German mark will become legal methods of payment. The currencies will
be in circulation equally and their exchange rate will be fixed, Dr Hancke
said. Since the Montenegrin mark would be based 100 per cent on the German mark
foreign currency reserves, the currency of the monetary council will be equal
to the German mark...The majority of other currencies, including the Yugoslav
dinar, will be based on the floating exchange rate in relation to the
Montenegrin mark, that is the currency of the monetary council... Dr Hancke
said that the currency of the monetary council will be printed outside
Montenegro and that it will be based in Switzerland. The monetary council will
include five directors, three nominated by the Bank for International
Settlements from Basel and two appointed by Montenegro - one from a G-7 country
and the other from Montenegro."
