The New York Times

September 1, 1999

Complacency Amid the AIDS Epidemic

Disturbing new evidence suggests that the impact of powerful new AIDS drugs in reducing death rates has begun to wane at the same time that efforts to block the spread of the AIDS virus have reached a plateau. The task of bringing the AIDS epidemic under control will clearly require renewed vigor and new approaches to prevention.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced at a meeting in Atlanta this week that the death rate from AIDS in the United States, which had dropped a startling 42 percent from 1996 to 1997, fell only 20 percent from 1997 to 1998. That was still a substantial decline but also a worrisome indication that further declines may be harder to achieve. Indeed, data from New York City suggest that the death rate for the first half of 1999 will be the same as in the first half of 1998.

That leaves prevention as the best tool for curing the epidemic. But health experts report that the rate of H.I.V. infection has leveled off at 40,000 new cases a year, a disturbing indication that prevention programs have stalled, especially in reaching minorities and young gay men. The death rate and incidence of AIDS among African-Americans is 10 times higher than among whites, and infection rates are soaring in some groups of gay males. It is an ironic twist that the very success of the new drug cocktails in warding off death from AIDS has bred complacency in some Americans who are returning to risky sexual behaviors.