The New York Times

Thursday, October 22, 1999

Bombings in Chechnya

The gruesome bombing of a marketplace and maternity hospital yesterday in Grozny is the latest tragedy in what is becoming Russia's second full-blown war with Chechnya since the end of the Soviet era. The first war, which began five years ago, was a disaster for both tiny Chechnya and gigantic Russia, with Chechnya left charred and angry while the Russian military was humiliated by its own incompetence.

The second war will not only devastate Chechnya. It will also paint a portrait of the new Russia that looks ominously like the old.

Although the Russians have denied that their bombs caused more than 100 deaths and 400 injuries in Grozny yesterday, planes believed to be Russian were spotted overhead, and Russian troops have been moving steadily closer to Chechnya's war-torn capital city.

A few weeks ago Russia explained the assaults on Chechnya as an effort to rout Islamic militants who were blamed for apartment-house bombings in Moscow and elsewhere that had killed 300 people. Russian ground troops have now gone far beyond the "security zone" in Chechnya that generals described as necessary to contain Islamic militants. Instead, the generals now seem determined to win a war with the small Caucasian republic.

One major difference is that because of the apartment bombings, today's Chechen conflict is far more popular in Russia than the previous one. Russia's prime minister, Vladimir Putin, flew triumphantly over Chechnya this week, examining the effects of the bombing campaign on the rebellious republic's territory below.

It was a scene that played particularly well back home, where Russians are preparing for parliamentary elections in December and a presidential vote six months later. Mr. Putin, undoubtedly in the running to replace Boris Yeltsin, is riding this popular war, but his support could evaporate quickly if Russian troops once again start returning home in body bags.

Even if Russians fare better on their second try, the greater damage could be to Russia's international reputation.