Central European Economic Review

Wall Street Journal Europe

www.wsj.com/ceer

November 29, 1999

Why West Should Worry

Chechnya paves way for authoritarianism

By SERGEI KOVALYOV

--A well-known human rights campaigner, Mr. Kovalyov is a deputy in the

Russian Federation State Duma.

Once again, Russia has stumbled into the Chechen trap.

Was the trap fashioned in the headquarters of Chechen field commanders? Or

was it hammered out in the secret labs of the notorious international

terrorist Osama Bin Laden? Or did it take shape in the Russian Defense

Ministry building on Moscow's Arbat Square? Or did it come to life behind

the Kremlin walls, where the entourage of the rapidly degenerating

president is weaving a web of intrigue in an attempt to block from power

the dangerous and energetic contenders: Yury Luzhkov and Yevgeny Primakov.

Unfortunately, we don't have answers to these questions, and I'm afraid we

never will. When it comes to conspiracy, Kremlin courtiers are at least as

good as international terrorists.

How did it all start this time around? First, [the Chechen fighters]

Shamil Basayev and Khattab staged a mad raid, and Russia again turned its

attention to the rebellious republic. By August, the federal army was

fighting furiously with Chechen bands in Dagestan. Then explosions came

thundering in Moscow and Volgodonsk. The country was gripped by a mystical

terror. In the meantime, Russian troops were advancing toward the borders

of the Chechen republic.

Then, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced an "antiterrorist operation"

against Chechnya. The Russian government refused to negotiate with Chechen

President Aslan Maskhadov. Next came massive air and missile attacks aimed

at towns and villages of the breakaway republic. Russian divisions

advanced slowly into the Chechen heartland, and meticulously destroyed

everything that moved along the way. And all of this was taking place with

the loud approval of public opinion.

Now, troops are advancing ever closer to the Chechen mountains, and with

them Russia is moving towards its historical fate. What mask will the demon

of Russian history wear this time? Will it be the mask of another

disastrous defeat that could lead to turmoil, riots and the loss of

government control over the country? Or will it be the mask of a military

victory that could bring to power a man with a hysterical ringing voice and

the white eyes of a transient madman?

A military victory [in Chechnya] is still possible. All that's needed is

the physical elimination of all Chechens capable of carrying arms.

Reportedly, our military top brass proposed just such a "final solution of

the Chechen question" in the summer of 1996, just after Mr. Maskhadov's

troops recaptured the capital Grozny. But to his credit, [Krasnoyarsk

governor] Alexander Lebed -- who at the time was the secretary of

[President Boris Yeltsin's policy making] Security Council -- rejected

these cannibalistic proposals and began peace talks. The talks were met

with nearly universal public approval.

These days, the atmosphere is different. When a popular television anchor

speaks about Chechnya, his words are preceded by the opening chords of

"Rise up, great country ... " -- the Soviet people's unofficial anthem in

the war against the Nazis in 1941-1945. Regional newspapers are teeming

with headlines such as the following one from Nizhny Novgorod's Delo:

"Chechnya must die if Russia wants to survive."

In any case, if the second Caucasus war continues, all that's left of

freedom in Russia will disappear. This is already happening now.

Newspapers, magazines, radio and television are bending over backwards to

prove their loyalty to the government and support the official lies about

the events in the Northern Caucasus. Some officials have threatened to

prosecute civilian organizations that circulate petitions calling for an

end to military conscription. And human-rights activists in the provinces

are being labeled CIA agents. For the first time since August 1991, some

Russian leaders are openly saying the military-industrial complex should be

restored to its former status.

This is our likely future. It will be up to us to deal with it. But how

will the rest of the world -- which considers itself civilized -- coexist

with an authoritarian Russia? How will Europe reconcile its conscience with

the destruction of an entire people? It simply won't. People in Europe are

tired of Russia. They'll just stop giving it credits, and that will be it.

They will be relieved not to have to think about it for a while. Just a

few years ago, American political scientists routinely referred to Russia

as an odd country that belonged in Asia, not Europe. In Asia, as everyone

knows, human blood is cheaper than in Germany or in the Netherlands.

For a while, Europe might forget about Russia, but when a bellicose

monster again towers like a terrifying ghost on the edge of the Continent,

it will be forced to remember. Whether angered by defeat or inspired by

victory, this monster will no doubt have done away with the "fifth column"

of the country's democrats.

Today, Europe can still influence the course of events. It can still help

both Russia and the Chechens. We need active and persistent help. We can't

cope with the situation on our own. To my delight, I've noticed that the

West is responding more actively to the Caucasus bloodletting than it did

during the previous war there. Is this the result of the Kosovo experience?

It even seems that public opinion in Europe has gone too far, in some

ways. Many Europeans still don't recognize the importance of containing

terrorism. It's obvious that one can't fight terrorism the way Mr. Putin

and the generals are doing it, but one has to fight it somehow. Even if the

Russian security services do turn out to have invented the claim that

Chechen terrorists planted the bombs in Moscow, the criminal raid of Mr.

Basayev and Mr. Khattab into Dagestan was a very real event that called for

decisive actions.

The West must demand that the Russian government stop the war. It is

inflicting more suffering on peaceful civilians than on Chechen fighters.

The Russian army must stop its advance into the depth of Chechen territory,

and the Russian air force and artillery -- which are shelling populated

areas -- must cease fire. Mr. Putin must begin direct talks with Mr.

Maskhadov immediately. At the same time, the West must demand that Mr.

Maskhadov extradite the masterminds of the assault on Dagestan -- Mr.

Basayev and Mr. Khattab -- to face Russian (or perhaps international)

prosecution.

Once they are extradited, Chechnya will have every right to demand that

Russian troops withdraw from its territory. The West must also demand that

Chechnya's leaders commit to cooperating with Russia (or maybe Interpol) in

the search for the terrorists who set off the blasts in Russian apartment

buildings. If these terrorists don't turn up in Chechnya, then, well, so

much the better for Chechnya. But if they are really hiding in the

republic, Grozny will have to do its utmost to arrest and extradite them.

Finally, the Chechen government must be confronted with a forceful

ultimatum; it must do everything possible to put an end to the disgusting

business of hostage taking. You might ask, what's the wisdom of talking

with a weak government that poorly controls the situation in the country?

My response: the West is already negotiating with Mr. Yeltsin.

Chechnya is dying, and it needs international help. I'm thoroughly

convinced that in dying, Chechnya is dragging Russia into the abyss along

with it. And that means Russia needs international help as well. Today,

there's only one way to provide this help, and that is to apply forceful --

even ruthless -- pressure on both sides of the conflict. I will not repeat

what I've already written and said many times, but the most important

point is this: by helping Russia, Europe is investing in its own future.