The New York Times

Thursday, December 9, 1999

ESSAY / By WILLIAM SAFIRE

Great Game's Victims

The newly emboldened Russian military has now embarked on a modern version of what Rudyard Kipling in 1901 called "the Great Game" -- that struggle against the West for economic and political power in the Caucasus and Middle East.

A war on terrorism out of Chechnya is its excuse. Next week's elections to the Russian Parliament are the immediate cause of the systematic massacre of the dark-skinned Muslim troublemakers. The blood-thirstiest of the Russian politicians are getting the most support, if we can believe the easily rigged polls.

But there is another, longer-range game afoot. That is the old imperialist urge by Moscow to dominate the sources and lines of supply of Caspian Basin and Iranian oil and gas, and thereby to gain a stranglehold on the economic life of its adversaries.

A map tells the story. Chechnya lies astride one of the key pipelines into Russia and out to a Black Sea port through Turkey's Bosporus to the Mediterranean. That's why Moscow says it must be denied independence, no matter how many die.

The U.S., aware of Russia's ambitions, is encouraging an alternative to supply lines through Iran, Iraq and Russia. We support a proposed energy trail through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. Although it has not happened, President Clinton said yesterday it would be seen as "one of the most important things that happened this year."

Russia is putting great pressure on Georgia, independent after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Adjacent to Chechnya, Georgia has been resisting occupation by Russian troops who want to take charge of its border; that would undermine the West's proposed pipeline. Georgia's reformist president, Eduard Shevardnadze, has survived three assassination attempts that many think were K.G.B.-inspired.

Moscow recently entertained Tariq Aziz, Saddam Hussein's man. In return for Russia's support in resisting U.N. inspection of its nuclear weapon development, Iraq has cut its permitted production of oil. That has helped keep up the price of oil -- it has doubled this year -- and has given Russia the money it needs to support 100,000 troops in Chechnya.

Those are the undercurrent events. On the surface, residents of besieged Grozny, the Chechen capital, have been ordered to get out of town lest they be pulverized by bombs -- but no cease-fire was offered to let them get out safely. Thousands will die along with relatively few terrorists.

One Baltic leader said this was like answering the terrorist hijacking of an aircraft by shooting down the plane. Clinton sternly warned that such slaughter of civilians would mean "Russia will pay a heavy price for those actions."

What price? Only that its threatened atrocity "will further alienate the global community from Russia." What a weak-kneed response. The time to list the consequences is before the massacre. Such as:

1. Disinvite the Russians from next week's scheduled meeting of the Group of 8 foreign ministers.

2. Dispatch a trade-and-aid delegation to Georgia immediately.

3. Describe the suspension of the next I.M.F. loan to Russia for what it is -- retaliation for atrocity, and not for economic inaction that saves Russia's face.

4. Withdraw our scheduled Export-Import Bank guarantees.

5. Point out how Arab oil producers, now paying lip service to their Muslim brethren in Chechnya, are financing Russia's attack with their OPEC-induced shortages and inflated oil prices.

6. Begin drawing down oil from our brimming strategic reserve, replenishing the reserve when world prices drop.

7. Move quickly to bring the Baltic states into NATO. Russian imperialism is still alive and growling.

Russia has a way of responding to credible threats. What happened when John McCain and George W. Bush made plain they would withdraw from the ABM treaty if the Russians refused necessary modifications to allow limited missile defense? Russia's Duma, after four years, decided to take up ratification of Start II.

Cluck-clucking and hand-wringing have no effect. Mass killing is no game, great or otherwise. Diplomatic and economic pressure can save lives.