Vremya MN

December 7, 1999

[translation for personal use only from RIA Novosti)

LET OTHERS FIGHT

Russians not unanimous on the Chechen war

By Yelena BOLDYREVA

According to the National Public Opinion Research Centre

(VTsIOM), over a half of respondents think the hostilities in

Chechnya must be carried on, which is a slide from 61% in late

November. And "this mobilisation is not as steadfast and

unanimous as it seems," VTsIOM director Yuri Levada said at a

press conference on December 6. On the other hand, election blocs

and parties speak up in support of the counter-terrorist

operation because they rely on the general mood of the voters.

Judging by the VTsIOM poll on November 26-29, four parties

will surely get into the new Duma: the KPRF (25%), Unity (18%),

the OVR (12%), and Yabloko (9%). The Union of the Right Forces

(SPS) is in "the risk zone," as Levada put it, with 5% ready to

vote for it, but this figure can change either way. The number of

Zhirinovsky supporters is still below 5%, and Our Home now holds

less than 1% of the electorate.

The people's attitude to the second Chechen war differs

dramatically from their view of the first war. VTsIOM regularly

polled the people during it, and most respondents spoke up

against that war. Yuri Levada thinks the difference between the

people's attitudes to the first and the second Chechen wars can

be explained by two factors. The first was the direct Chechen

aggression against Dagestan and the explosions of houses

attributed to Chechen terrorists. And the second is the

appearance of a new person meeting public expectations on the

political scene.

This person (which was at first surprising) is Premier

Vladimir Putin, who is demonstrating the elements of the "iron

hand," which so many of our compatriots love. Over 40% of the

respondents think he can restore order in the country (only 1%

believe Yeltsin can do it), and the notion of order includes the

suppression of rebellious Chechnya.

Besides, most people regard the Chechen campaign abstractly,

thinking that it has no personal relation to them. The VTsIOM

sociologists asked: "If only volunteers were sent to the hot

spots, would you go (or send your husband, son, brother, friend)

to Chechnya, to fight bandits and terrorists there?" The answer

was predictable. As many as 63% of the respondents said a

resolute "No," and another 12% referred to bad health. In a word,

let them fight, but it won't be us.

And yet, although the bulk of the respondents support the

military solution of the problem, nearly a half think that if the

bloodshed can be stopped through negotiations, we should talk

with Chechens. And it does not matter who would suggest the idea,

Putin or Yeltsin. The idea of talks, if advanced by Yeltsin,

would be supported by 45% of the respondents, and 48% would

support it if it were voiced by Putin.

This is probably why Yuri Levada thinks that "deep fissures

can appear in the monolith of support for the war, which society

is demonstrating now."