The New York Times

Tuesday, January 18, 2000

The Debilitated Russian Military

Moscow's recent setbacks in Chechnya suggest that the decade-long deterioration of Russia's conventional military forces has not yet been checked. The Chechnya operations have been characterized by command failures, overreliance on crude and obsolete weaponry and sparing use of regular Russian ground forces, whose combat readiness is uncertain and morale unsteady.

Although Americans may feel relieved that Russian conventional forces are now too weak to pose a serious external threat, there is a worrisome side to Russia's military breakdown. Moscow's defense planners have placed greater reliance on nuclear weapons to resist potential attack. Further, there is a risk that battlefield failures in Chechnya during the coming Russian presidential campaign could spur demands for a costly and wasteful military buildup.

Russia needs to repair its armed forces. But it should do so through rational downsizing and modernization, not by a futile attempt to rebuild along cold-war lines. Large-scale remilitarization would draw away resources and energies urgently needed for reviving the economy and reinvigorating government administration.

Moscow has learned some lessons from its first disastrous campaign in Chechnya, from 1994 to '96. In the first phase of the current campaign Russian forces advanced steadily, behind inaccurate but lethal artillery and air strikes, through the lowlands of northern Chechnya. This approach broke down once the war reached its present stage of fighting in the mountains of southern Chechnya and the urban outskirts of Grozny, the Chechen capital. In recent weeks Chechen guerrillas have staged effective counterattacks and even managed to retake some areas from Russian control.

The Kremlin needs to reconfigure Russia's military forces to better fit the country's post-cold-war needs and resources. In the past dozen years, Russian troop strength has shrunk from around five million to about a million and a half. Investment in everything from nuclear weapons maintenance to new aircraft and tanks has dried up. Military salaries are paid erratically, recruits are treated brutally and conscription orders are widely ignored. While Russia's nuclear weapons still appear to be under effective political control, security at nuclear installations has deteriorated and power and communications interruptions are alarmingly frequent.

Nuclear weapons reduction negotiations with the United States must be revitalized. Russia's new Parliament should quickly ratify the long-stalled 1993 treaty with Washington that provides for Russia's present total of some 6,700 nuclear warheads to be cut almost in half. Formal talks should then begin on a new treaty to bring warhead levels well below 2,000. America can encourage Russia to reform its military forces. But the first steps must be taken by Moscow. The place to begin is by disengaging Russian troops from Chechnya at the earliest possible date.