It look that to the national-socialist Serbian scenery, this time, it belong to the small Republic of Montenegro, which one, was the smallest of Formers Yugoslav Republics but, extremely important on the strategic issues for Serbia. So, whether Montenegro is the only exit on the Adriatic Sea, already of the Yugoslav Federation and it make difficult the division with Serbia, Montenegrin people, who has resisted with stoicism the ottoman occupation from the 1459 instituting the only independent people of the region during that historic period, today, as it looks, is trying to repeat the history with the same stoicism but to a moderate way

After the independence of the other former Republics of ex Yugoslavia, as Slovenia, Croatia and Macedonia, this smaller Montenegrin Republic organized, to those periods of wars in Ex Yugoslavia, a referendum which set for the first time of the last century the "interrogative" of the Montenegrin dependence to the Federation. 23 of the voters (most of them Serbian residents) have been declared pro the dependence under Federation! Later on, when Bosnia & Erzegovina claimed the independence, Serbia & Montenegro founded the Federative Republic of Yugoslavia! In the mean time, the International Community refused to know this new State and further the UNO asked for reapplying for membership to the Nations Community and also European Union accepted this Federative Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia & Montenegro) on 1996.

Breaking of the normal relation between Serbia and Montenegro has been visible during 1992 - 1994, when, one of the most important factors of such new approaching has been the United Nations Organization economic sanction against ex Yugoslavia. As result of these economic sanctions Montenegro has been damaged surely a lot, and this to this small republic have been attributed to the typical nationalism of Belgrade.

An element on these instigating has been also the Muslim Community of this present Republic of Yugoslavia, element that surely has stimulated Belgrade to control the foreign policy of Podgoritza in Federal level. In the mean while should be said that the Muslim community is already and strangely considered as an ethnicity! We surely know the religion is not ethnicity, and we surely can say, according to the most of their tradition they must be Albanians orthodox that has been converted in a very precise historical period in Muslim.

Whether, (according to the Britain Encyclopaedia) the population in Montenegro is composed by 60 % Montenegrins, 15% Muslims! 9 % Serbs, 9 % Albanians and 2% different minorities and, constant declaration of reformed minded Montenegrin President, Millo DJUKANOVIC, say that the problems between the two Republics found a dynamic difference which goes beyond the Miloscevician phenomenon and that the one possible successor of this last one can be worse, many of the Serbian politics or annalists, of Montenegro or Serbia, basing on the last century coexistence, say that the conflict of interests will be annulated with the getting out of Miloscevic from the politics!

While, Momir BULATOVIC, Federal Premier and ex Montenegrin President, the strongest rival of DJUKANOVIC, some month ago has developed a public survey in Montenegrin capital, Podgorica, by which according to the data published, by BULATOVIC himself, has resulted that the majority capital's citizens are in favour of coexistence between two Republics! But, in the mean time, we should be reminded that there are not all of the BULATOVIC's party who think, as he believes. For instance, at a reunion of Popular Socialist Party, when the President BULATOVIC criticised severely the policy developed by Montenegrin present power personalised by GJUKANOVIC and called for restoring of relation with Belgrade, his vice President, Pregrad BULATOVIC, opposed the opinions of Party's president calling for more space on dialogue with Djukanovic. Pregrad BULATOVIC has continuously encouraged reforming propositions within Montenegro. Also, generally, small Serbian political Parties, within or out Montenegro, have opposed, fu

r sure not to the same way, the DJUKANOVIC reforms, and his Government which he represents, for changing of the relation within Federation. For example, Dragoljub MICUNOVIC, President of Democratic Centre, has declared that the platform of DJUKANOVIC for changing of relation within Federation is coming out in a wrong time, because, according him, these political steps should develop after the getting out from politics of MIILOSEVIC.

In similar circumstances, some months ago, Vukasin MARAS, number one of Montenegrin Interior Ministry, has declared that "Momir BULATOVIC is preparing a very hot winter for Montenegro" and continuing he has said that "the Interior Ministry is prepared to be defended even for a civil war within this small Republic"! Certainly, the winter to which Mr. MARAS has mentioned has already passed and the war scenery prepared by MILOSEVIC was against Kosova, but this declaration of devoted follower of DJUKANOVIC show the determination of whom that wont to go ahead with democratic reforms in Montenegro. But, also who is really working for an Independent Montenegro knows, for sure, that the final step will bring facing with Yugoslav Federal Army, thing, which if not happens in the right time, can be in disfavour of the final aim.

In the mean while, progressive political voices of small republic are speaking frankly and openly for different relation with Federation or Serbia and their intentions go closely to e referendum for independence. This political issue has gone closed to a public plat-form which aim to give to the smaller Republic the right for having it's own Army, it's own Foreign policy and it's own monetary cuts. This last already has been substituted with German mark. The severe Serbian reaction against these intentions have made the partisans of such policy to declare that "in case of refusal Serbian approach" Montenegro should ask a referendum for full Independence. As it is simple to be understand that this public political plat-form to the "de Jure" point of view do not represents the foundation of Independent Montenegrin Institutions, but for the other side of the same point of view "de facto" it goes beyond the limits of one perfect Independence into limit of the possible. This tell that the progressive Monten

egrin politics determinates the way of independence, whether, to be realistic, must be said that the Independence option of Montenegro is not openly supported by the majority of all politics in Montenegro it self, and this till now look to be a tactic for obtaining time and for not giving needless chance to military intervention of Belgrade in Montenegro.

Inner political situation in Montenegro look to be in favour of this public plat-form, and may be, for full independence, whether, this Montenegrin strategy is very visible, you cannot see any hurry political step. The partisan of Independence of Montenegro, President of Liberal Alliance Party, Miograd ZIVKOVIC, has declared that independence must be achieved by democratic means, so by democratic referendum. While, Pregrad DRECUN, Vice President of Popular Party, has declared that His Party do not oppose the coexistence with Serbia, but if Montenegro decide to obtain that, there will be no regret to this Party.

Certainly, Belgrade politics, either that of Miloscévic, have never been to the parts of "great political ingenuous" and that will never permit such democratic space, but this look to be well organized and rational managed by Montenegrin politics in power, which no how cannot stand up, lonely, the big military attacks, so, they have preferred more, till present days, status quo.

Millo DJUKANOVIC, Him self, has not yet used frankly the independence carts. Because, according to some analyses, in relation with a rational good strategy, He no how cannot goes against that part of International Community who desire that Montenegro can be a possibility for influencing in democratic developing in Belgrade and for an integral Balkans. But, at the same time it looks that the strategy of DHUKANOVIC has influenced all these analysing to conclude on that that, Montenegrin President cannot scarifies in no way His Country and making that victim of national socialist dictatorship of Miloscévic. DJUKANOVIC has declared that the Serbia have a lot of inner possibilities to achieve that and Montenegro can only help on that. Montenegrin President aiming to achieve the positive moral and obtaining, in front of that International Community parts that think differently, supports, He needs to instigate the independence too, probably in near future.

It is really known that the independence, which the Montenegrin progressive politics wont cannot be realised with the political will of Belgrade. Certainly, if the independence will be institutionally claimed this should provoke the military intervention of Belgrade, which DJUKANOVIC and his police forces cannot face for long. DJUKANOVIC in relation with this evident military risk has declared that, He "will demand help by International Community, even military ones". Certainly, to assume such responsibility he needs the entire needed moral, no one opponent argument, and especially unique approach of International Community. To achieve this DJUKANOVIC also is based to American policies, which has no double for following this right way for destroying the Dictatorship of Miloscévic.

DJUKANOVIC has already understood that for obtaining what He wants to obtain must sacrifices, so, seeing that, Serbian military intervention is not avoidable, He needs that happens after Montenegrin referendum for independence and before the institutional independence claim of Montenegro.

In base of the law of probability, Montenegro, or some others parts of Ex Yugoslavia, are going to face a military intervention and it must happens when it really should be needed. With time we will confirm if this opinion is right or not. Let's see