The New York Times

Friday, April 21, 2000

The Next Balkan Crisis

Throughout the war in Kosovo last year, there was a sharp contrast between the behavior of Montenegro and Serbia. Although is it part of a Yugoslavia led by Slobodan Milosevic, Montenegro has a Western-oriented, democratic leader, Milo Djukanovic. Montenegro took in Albanian refugees, sheltered Serbia's dissenters and parried attempts by Mr. Milosevic to take control of the republic.

Now, however, Mr. Milosevic is trying again. To hold him off, Montenegro needs more financial and political help from the West. Although the republic has only 650,000 people, it is strategically important. A democratic and prosperous Montenegro would show Serbia's residents that life in Yugoslavia does not have to be miserable. If Mr. Milosevic takes over a region that was the focus of so much Western attention and rhetorical support during the war, he will gain a significant symbolic victory and further destabilize the Balkans.

In a recent interview with The Times, the normally restrained Mr. Djukanovic accused Belgrade of trying to overthrow him by creating a 1,000-member paramilitary unit and stationing it in Montenegro. Mr. Milosevic already has the Serb-led Yugoslav Second Army, with more than 10,000 members, stationed there -- enough men to give Mr. Djukanovic's loyal police a fight. During the war, these soldiers tried to impose a form of martial law. They are at it again. They have taken over airports temporarily, installed television transmitters on military bases -- useful for broadcasting Mr. Milosevic's propaganda -- and muscled their way into border patrols.

Mr. Milosevic would have trouble garnering public support for a war with Montenegro, a republic ethnically similar to Serbia.

He seems to be trying to provoke Mr. Djukanovic into overreacting, which could offer a pretext for a coup.

Mr. Milosevic is also undermining the economy in hopes that Mr. Djukanovic will lose public support to Mr. Milosevic's allies.

Belgrade is blockading Montenegro, which is heavily dependent on Serbia for trade. And Belgrade's threats have killed Montenegro's possibilities for foreign investment and resumption of tourism.

The West essentially needs to subsidize Montenegro until Mr. Milosevic leaves power.

Given the republic's size, this is not that difficult. The United States gave $55 million last year, and will supply the same amount this year. European nations have also been generous.

But because Montenegro is not a country, it has not gotten desperately needed money to rebuild infrastructure or restructure industry from the World Bank and other lending institutions. They should make an exception for Montenegro, as they have done for Kosovo.

The international community opposes formal independence for Montenegro, because it could provoke Serbia and encourage further turmoil in the Balkans. But Western leaders should visit, speak about Montenegro's importance and open trade and cultural offices there.

The world should begin using Montenegro's port of Bar to help supply aid to Kosovo.

Unless America and its allies make clear that they still care about Montenegro, Mr. Milosevic will move to gain control of the republic.