Caucasus region could recover peace, security, political stability and economic prosperity thanks to implementation of "Stability Pact for Caucausus", states CEPs report

05/07/2000 (Agence Europe)

The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) has published a working paper (A Stability Pact for the Caucasus", drafted under Michael Emerson) in which it proposes an approach and a scenario which, in its view, would allow political decision-makers in Caucasian countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia), with support from EU, US and Russian officials, to draw up a "Stability Pact for the Caucasus". The idea of preparing a Stability Pact to put an end to the permanent instability of this region which is constantly torn apart by local conflicts, and to promote economic, political and interregional development of the Caucasus comes from the countries directly concerned. Over the past few months, the Heads of State and Government of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey made separate appeals in favour of concerted multilateral action in order to tackle, together, the fundamental problems of the Caucasus.

The existence of this common determination, this political consensus among the countries of the Caucasus to cooperate to achieve a better future, must encourage the "major players" on the international scene to take the initiative, stresses the CEPS. The EU, Russia and the United States "have now a window of opportunity and duty to use it". The authors of the report calls on the three major world powers to agree on a basic structure for the Stability Pact, and to establish a Caucasus Contact Group, which should include representatives of the three Caucasian countries, the United States, Russia and the EU, as well as two countries bordering on the Caucasus region, Turkey and Iran. This Contact Group could then draw up the main lines of the Stability Pact as follows:

Resolution of existing conflicts, mainly in Nagorny-Karabakh and Abkhazia (the report draftees propose concrete elements in order to put an end to these conflicts).

Regional integration. It is mainly proposed that Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia should create a South Caucasus Community (SCC), which would first of all organise a regional security cooperation. The second SCC priority would be to reestablish the former trade flows, develop regional infrastructure networks and create an effective crossborder administration. The aim should be a free trade area between the three countries. The SCC should also set in place common institutions including a Council of Ministers and a parliamentary assembly.

Ensuring security of the region with a key role by the OSCE, mainly in the field of peace-keeping activities in the areas earlier at war. The OSCE should also negotiate the reduction of armaments and ensure border security.

Cooperation between the EU, Russia and South Caucasus. In the context of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA), the EU and Russia should develop the "Northern Dimension" of their cooperation, similar to the "Northern Dimension" that the EU has set in place for the region around the Baltic Sea. The short term priority would be to ensure emergency aid to the population in Chechnya and in Northern Caucasus. At longer term, technical and financial assistance could be considered.

Strengthening of Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) and its transformation into "Black Sea-Caucasus Cooperation" (BSC), in which the EU is expected to become a full member.

Development of oil and gas resources. The Stability Pact will fundamentally reform the economic climate by reducing the political risk and attracting new foreign investment. This new contribution of capital and know-how could allow the Caucasus countries to use to best advantage the substantial existing oil and gas resources to ensure the region's overall development. The new stability would also considerably facilitate energy transit towards the markets of Eastern Europe through gas and oil pipelines.

The study "A Stability Pact for the Caucasus" is available from the CEPs, Place du Congrès 1, B-1000 Brussels (Tel.: +32.2/229.39.11, Fax: 219.41.51).