Serbia Watch, a bulletin reporting civil society, political and economic

developments on Serbia, is issued by the Open Society Institute (Washington

office-John Fox, director). Please communicate any questions, comments or

requests to receive Serbia Watch to:

Kristine Powers (researcher) at 202-496-2401 or kpowers@osi-dc.org

SPECIAL ISSUE: MILOSEVIC'S CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS

"It is evident that Yugoslavia no longer exists. Instead of the two equal

states, Montenegro and Serbia, we have a one-state model...Milosevic's

dilemma was Yugoslavia or The Hague...he chose destroying Yugoslavia."

Milo Djukanovic, President of Montenegro

Quoted by Associated Press, July 10 -- Podgorica

Q: "What do you think about Montenegro taking more steps towards

independence as a result of this? Is that something that the U.S. would

support, or are you still imbued with the idea that the Federal Republic of

Yugoslavia should remain both Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo?"

U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher: "We think that people

should be able to freely decide on their own destiny. I'll leave it at that

for the moment."

U.S. State Department press briefing

July 6 -- Washington

"Apart from political options, there are alternatives, which consist of a

demonstration of force. The international community (previously) looked on

events (in former Yugoslavia) with surprise and abhorrence and reacted too

late. It should not be repeated a fifth time."

Vaclav Havel, President of Czech Republic

Quoted by RFE/RL Newsline, July 11 -- Dubrovnik

Q: "Does the U.S. support independence for Montenegro?"

A: "No. We support a democratic Montenegro within a democratic Yugoslavia.

This requires a restructured relationship. The Belgrade regime has taken

steps that have major effects on Montenegro without consulting the

Montenegrin government. This reinforces the need for a new relationship

between the two republics. In responding to the regime's moves to restrict

Montenegro's rights, we have urged President Djukanovic and his government

to avoid any precipitous, unilateral moves toward independence, which would

provoke Belgrade to respond and could lead to a conflict. We have always

said that the solution for both Serbia and Montenegro is democracy. The

government of Montenegro has taken significant steps down that path. Sadly,

as yesterday's actions demonstrate, the government of Serbia has

demonstrated a manifest unwillingness to allow its citizens - or those of

its sister republic - to participate in a fully democratic process. We have

urged Montenegro and Serbia to seek a political agreement that addresses

Belgrade's continuing violation of Montenegro's rights under the federal

constitution."

Prepared statement in response to a "taken question" July 6

U.S. State. Dept., Office of the Spokesman, July 7 -- Washington

IN THIS SPECIAL ISSUE:

-- Full Text of Amendments and Montenegro's Resolution

-- Serbia unilaterally rewrites constitution

-- Fed gov't sends FRY election laws to parliament

-- Montenegro parliament rejects amendments -- and referendum

-- Djukanovic: no more FRY, no federal elections

-- "Ever closer to independence referendum"

-- PM: Referendum up to "success of Serbian opposition"

-- SPO: New federal election laws "dramatically deepen FRY crisis"

-- VJ "full combat readiness" amid coup preparations?

-- Seselj: Protect constitution "with all means"

-- Serbian NGOs: changes "undermining FRY constitutional order"

-- Constitutional changes deepen opposition split

-- Washington: "Grotesque effort to stifle democratic change"

-- U.S. pledges more cash

-- Robertson to Milosevic: don't underestimate NATO determination

-- G-8 foreign ministers urge restraint

-- Havel, Kucan, Mesic for referendum, security guarantee

POLITICAL PARTIES, LEADERS:

Montenegro's Ruling Coalition

DPS-Democratic Party of Socialists (Milo Djukanovic, President)

NS - People's Party of Montenegro (Dragan Soc, President)

SDP - Social Democratic Party of Montenegro (Zarko Rakcevic, president)

Montenegro's Opposition

SNP- Socialist People's Party of Montenegro (Momir Bulatovic, president)

LSCG - Liberal Alliance of Montenegro (Miodrag Zivkovic, leader)

Serbia's Ruling Coalition

SPS -Serbian Socialist Party (Slobodan Milosevic, FRY President)

SRS - Serbian Radical Party (Vojislav Seselj, Serbia's Deputy PM)

JUL - Yugoslav United Left (Mira Markovic, president)

Other

VJ - Yugoslav National Army

FRY - Federal Republic of Yugoslavia

T I M E L I N E

July 6

Extraordinary session of FRY Parliament convened with a single agenda:

amending the FRY Constitution.

July 6

All amendments passed and entered into force.

[See attachment for text]

July 8

Parliament of the Republic of Montenegro holds an emergency session and

passes: "The Resolution on the Protection of Rights and Interests of the

Republic of Montenegro and its Citizens." [See full text in section II

below]

July 8

Yugoslav Army reportedly in a state of "full combat readiness" awaiting an

order to intervene in the event of a declaration of independence by

Montenegro.

July 10

President Milo Djukanovic at a press conference states: "The Federal

Republic of Yugoslavia, constituted in 1992, has ceased to exist"; Announces

refusal to participate in federal elections. (Deutsche Press Agentur, July

10)

July 11

President Djukanovic meets with President Stipe Mesic, President Milan Kucan

and President Vaclav Havel in Dubrovnik. All 4 presidents state support for

independence referendum, and security guarantees.

July 13

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright speaks with Djukanovic by

telephone and pledges $16.5 million in additional assistance.

I. AMENDMENTS

BELGRADE UNILATERALLY REWRITES CONSTITUTION

***"At today's meeting, chaired by Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic, the

Federal Government agreed with federal deputies' proposal of changes in the

Constitution and concluded that proposed solutions will contribute to

further democratization, development and strengthening of the Federal

Republic of Yugoslavia." (statement, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia

Government-Belgrade, July 6)

Text of Amendments followed by excerpted 1992 FRY Constitution:

Source and translation: FRY Ministry of Foreign Affairs web site

AMENDMENT II

1. The Federal Assembly: shall elect and replace: the President [Prime

Minister] and members of the Federal Government, judges of the Federal

Constitutional Court, judges of the Federal Court, the Federal State

Prosecutor, Governor of the Yugoslav National Bank and other federal

officials as designated by the federal law. 2. This Amendment shall replace

Article 78, paragraph 7 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of

Yugoslavia.

1992 CONSTITUTION

SECTION V: ORGANS OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA Federal Assembly

Article 78: The Federal Assembly shall: 7) appoint and dismiss: the

President of the Republic; the federal prime minister; justices of the

Federal Constitutional Court: justices of the Federal Court; the governor of

the National Bank of Yugoslavia, and other federal officials stipulated by

federal statute

***

AMENDMENT III

1. The Chamber of Republics shall be comprised of 20 federal deputies each

from each constituent Republic, elected at direct elections. Election and

end of the term of office of a federal deputy to the Chamber of Citizens and

the Chamber of Republics of the Federal Assembly shall be regulated by the

federal law. A federal deputy shall decide and vote at his own discretion

and may not be recalled. 2. . This Amendment shall replace Article 80,

paragraph 3, and Article 81, paragraph 2, and shall supplement Article 86 of

the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

1992 CONSTITUTION

Article 80: (paragraph 3) The Chamber of Republics shall be made up of 20

federal deputies from each member republic. Article 81: (paragraph 2) The

election and termination of the mandates of federal deputies in the Chamber

of Citizens of the Federal Assembly shall be regulated by federal law, while

the election and termination of the mandates of federal deputies in the

Chamber of Republics of the Federal Assembly shall be regulated by the laws

of each member republic. Article 86: Federal deputies to the Chamber of

Citizens of the Federal Assembly shall represent the citizens of the Federal

Republic of Yugoslavia, while federal deputies to the Chamber of Republics

of the Federal Assembly shall represent the member republic from which they

were elected. A federal deputy to the Chamber of Citizens shall take

positions and vote according to his conscience. A federal deputy to the

Chamber of Citizens may not be recalled.

****

AMENDMENT IV

1. Federal laws on the flag, coat of arms and the national anthem shall be

passed by the Federal Assembly by a two-thirds majority of all federal

deputies voting in each of the two parliamentary Chambers. 2. This Amendment

shall replace Article 90, paragraph 2 of the Constitution of the Federal

Republic of Yugoslavia.

1992 CONSTITUTION

Article 90: Federal statutes regulating: the flag, coat-of-arms or national

anthem; election of federal deputies for the Chamber of Citizens; election

of the President of the Republic; the Federal Court; the Federal Public

Prosecutor; organization of the Federal Constitutional Court, the

proceedings before this court and the legal effect of its decisions shall be

adopted in the Federal Assembly by a two-third majority of votes of all the

federal deputies in each of the two chambers.

***

AMENDMENT V

1. The President of Republic shall be elected at direct elections by a

secret ballot. The term of office of the President shall be four years. The

same person may be elected as President of Republic twice at the most. The

President of Republic and the President [Prime Minister] of the Federal

Government, as a rule, may not be from the same constituent Republic. The

President of Republic shall enjoy the same immunities as the federal deputy.

Immunities enjoyed by the President of Republic shall be decided by the

Federal Assembly. 2. This Amendment shall replace Article 97 of the

Constitution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

1992 CONSTITUTION

Article 97: The President of the Republic shall be elected by the Federal

Assembly for a four-year term of office, by secret ballot. The same

individual may not be reelected President of the Republic for a second term.

As a rule, the President of the Republic and the federal prime minister may

not be from the same member republic. The President of the Republic may not

hold other public office or engage in professional activities. The President

of the Republic shall enjoy the same immunity as a federal deputy. The

Federal Assembly shall determine the immunity of the President of the

Republic. The President of the Republic may only be dismissed it the Federal

Assembly ascertains that he has violated the Constitution.

***

AMENDMENT VI

1. The term of the President of the Republic shall end before the expiry of

the period for which he has been elected, if he is removed from office or if

he resigns. The term of the President of Republic shall end on the date of

his resignation or removal from office. 2. This Amendment shall replace the

provisions of Article 98, paragraphs 1 and 2 of the Constitution of the

Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

1992 CONSTITUTION

Article 98: The President of the Republic may resign from his office. The

mandate of the President of the Republic shall be terminated on the day he

submits his resignation or is dismissed.

***

AMENDMENT VII

1. The Federal Assembly may remove from office the President of Republic if

the Federal Constitutional Court finds that he has violated the present

Constitution. Procedure for removal from office of the President of Republic

may be initiated at least by half the federal deputies in both Chambers of

the Federal Assembly. Removal of the President of Republic from office may

not be put to a vote before 15 days have expired from the date on which the

Federal Constitutional Court has forwarded its decision to the Federal

Assembly referred to in paragraph 1 above. The President of Republic shall

be deemed removed from office if both Chambers of the Federal Assembly have

accepted the motion by a two-thirds majority of the federal deputies. If the

Federal Assembly declines the motion, it may not be voted on again before

the expiry of six months. This Amendment shall replace [editor's note:

original text uses "dopunjuje" which is accurately translated as "shall

complement"] section V, paragraph 2 of the Constitution of the Federal

Republic of Yugoslavia.

1992 CONSTITUTION

2. Article 96: The President of the Republic shall: 1) represent the Federal

Republic of Yugoslavia at home and abroad; 2) promulgate federal laws by

decree; issue instruments of rectification of international treaties; 3)

nominate a candidate for prime minister of the federal government, after

having heard the opinions of spokesmen for the parliamentary groups in the

Federal Assembly; 4) recommend to the Federal Assembly candidates for

appointment as justices of the Federal Constitutional Court, justices of the

National Bank of Yugoslavia, after having obtained the opinion of the

presidents of the member republics; 5) call elections for the Federal

Assembly; 6) appoint and recall by decree ambassadors of the Federal

Republic of Yugoslavia, pursuant to the recommendations of the federal

government; receive the letters of credence of foreign diplomatic envoys; 7)

confer decorations and hones of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, as

provided for by federal statute; 8) grant pardons for federal statutory

criminal offences; 9) perform other functions as envisaged by the present

Constitution.

***

AMENDMENT VIII

1. The Federal Government shall be deemed elected if the majority of all

federal deputies in both Chambers have voted for it by a secret ballot. The

Federal Government shall be accountable to the Federal Assembly. The Federal

Assembly may vote a no confidence motion to the Federal Government. The

President of the Federal Government may propose replacement of some Federal

Government members. No confidence motion may be voted on at least three days

after the motion was moved. The no-confidence motion shall be voted down if

the majority of all federal deputies in each of the Chambers have gone along

with it. The Federal Government and each of its members may hand in their

resignations to the Federal Assembly.

***

AMENDMENT IX

The Constitutional Law shall be adopted to implement Amendments II to VIII

above.

***

CONSTITUTIONAL LAW ON THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AMENDMENTS II TO VIII

TO THE CONSTITUTION

Article 1

Within 60 days from the date of entry into force of Amendments II to VIII to

the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, federal laws shall

be passed on the election and end of term of office for the deputies to the

Chamber of Republic of the Federal Assembly and on the election and removal

from office of the President of Republic.

Article 2 Both Chambers of the Federal Assembly shall sit until the expiry

of the term of office of the federal deputies to the Chambers of Citizens,

in accordance with Article 81, paragraph 1 of the Constitution of the

Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, whereupon elections will be held for federal

deputies to both Chambers of the Federal Assembly.

Article 3

The provisions of paragraph 3, subparagraph 1 of Amendment V to the

Constitution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia deal only with the

persons elected as President of Republic in accordance with this Amendment.

Article 4

The present Law shall enter into force on the date on which it is proclaimed

by both Chambers of the Federal Assembly.

****************************************************

FEDERAL GOV'T SENDS FRY ELECTION LAWS TO PARLIAMENT

***"The chairmen of the Federal Parliament's Chamber of Citizens and the

Chamber of the Republics, Milomir Minic and Srdja Bozovic, convened for July

24 a special session of the Yugoslav parliament to discuss several draft

laws, proposed by the Yugoslav government on July 18, as the result of the

recent amendments to the Yugoslav Constitution. The federal government has

submitted to Parliament for adoption a Bill regulating the election of the

Yugoslav president, Bills on the elections of the MPs in both houses of

Parliament, and a Bill on defining constituencies for electing MPs for the

lower house." (BETA news agency, July 19)

II. PODGORICA'S RESPONSE

MONTENEGRO PARLIAMENT REJECTS AMENDMENTS -- AND REFERENDUM

***"Montenegro's parliament rejected early Saturday the constitutional

changes adopted in Belgrade that could extend Yugoslav President Slobodan

Milosevic's hold on power, but refused to call a referendum on independence.

The assembly adopted, by 36 votes to 18, a resolution proposed by the

government of Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic declaring 'illegal'

the measures voted by Milosevic's allies in the Yugoslav parliament. The

resolution, rejecting the authority of federal institutions controlled by

Milosevic, was opposed by the Yugoslav President's allies in Montenegro; the

Socialist People's party of Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic. However

the Montenegrin assembly members rejected a proposal by the pro-independence

Social Democratic Party, allies of reformist President Milo Djukanovic's

Democratic Socialists, to immediately call a referendum on independence from

Belgrade. The agreed draft resolution said Montenegro would neither

recognise nor accept 'any legal and political act adopted without the

participation of legitimate and legal representatives' of the republic. The

resolution said the changes mooted by Belgrade annul the principle of

equality between Serbia and Montenegro, laid down by the 1992....Many of

Djukanovic's allies have increased calls for outright independence from

Belgrade, but the reformist president has so far been reluctant to approve

the final step, fearing armed clashes with Milosevic's supporters in the

army and in Montenegro itself." (Agence France Presse, July 8) [See text of

resolution below]

*********************************************

Resolution on the Protection of Rights and Interests of the Republic of

Montenegro and its Citizens [Full text]

"Aware of the responsibility that we have, on the basis of the Constitution

of the Republic of Montenegro, to protect constitutional order and position

of Montenegro, its state dignity and development of democracy in Montenegro;

Confirming our earlier stated attitude regarding illegitimacy and illegality

of the federal authorities that were constituted against the provisions of

the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, constitution of the

Republic of Montenegro, laws and will of the Montenegrin citizens;

Concluding that there is a constant violation of the Constitution of FRY at

the expense of Montenegro and its constitutional position stipulated in

articles 1 and 6 of the Constitution, and that the latest amendments of the

Constitution led to a classic constitutional destruction; Decided to comply

with its constitutional responsibility and will of the citizens of

Montenegro expressed at the elections held in 1998; The Parliament of the

Republic of Montenegro, at the second meeting of the first regular session

in 2000, held on July 8, 2000, promulgated:

1. The Parliament shall not recognize and accept any legal or political act

whatsoever passed by the legislative, executive and judicial authorities of

the federal state without participation of lawful and legal representatives

of Montenegro.

2. The Parliament shall not recognize and accept amendments of the

Constitution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, as the amendments were

adopted by the illegal and illegitimate Federal Parliament, against the

majority will of the citizens of Montenegro and flagrantly violating the

constitutional right of the Republic of Montenegro as an equal constituent

of the federal state.

3. The Parliament calls upon all the state authorities to act, within the

framework of their constitutional and legal powers, in accordance with this

resolution and not to implement any decisions whatsoever adopted by the

illegitimate and illegal federal authorities and to undertake all the

normative and other measures necessary for the protection of interests of

the citizens and the Republic of Montenegro and unhindered functioning of

its legal system.

4. The Parliament calls upon all the state authorities of the Republic,

especially the Ministry of Internal Affairs, political parties, bodies and

institutions to contribute through their activities to preserve peace, as

well as members of the Yugoslav Army not to allow to be abused against the

citizens, institutions and state authorities of the Republic of Montenegro.

5. The Parliament calls upon the citizens of Montenegro, citizens and

democratic forces of Serbia as well us international community to help

finding peaceful solutions to the problems existing between Montenegro and

the state authorities of Serbia and the Federation, respecting the will of

citizens, since it is in the interest of both Montenegro and Serbia, but

also in the interest of the stabilization of circumstances in the South East

Europe." (text and translation from the Parliament of the Republic of

Montenegro, Montenegro Ministry of Interior website)

DJUKANOVIC: NO MORE FRY, NO FEDERAL ELECTIONS

***"Montenegro's pro-Western president, angry at constitutional changes

passed last week by President Slobodan Milosevic's government, said Monday

that Yugoslavia no longer exists...Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic

said that with the latest federal constitutional changes and Montenegro's

decision to ignore them the republic 'has practically left the

constitutional and legal system of Yugoslavia'...He said Montenegro will not

take part in federal elections envisaged by Milosevic for next autumn...He

blamed Milosevic, saying the Serb leader destroyed the federation to

preserve his own power and avoid war crime charges...Djukanovic said his

government won't provoke the Yugoslav army, but after holding an

independence referendum, 'will form a (Montenegrin) defense ministry and

complete state sovereignty.' " (Associated Press, July 10)

"EVER CLOSER TO INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM"

*** "Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic told CTK that after recent

changes in the Yugoslav constitution, made by the Yugoslav parliament,

Montenegro had come significantly closer to the referendum on its

independence. He made it clear that in the case of a war conflict with which

Belgrade might react to Montenegro's independence, Montenegro would be ready

to defend itself. 'If there is conflict, we shall defend ourselves and we

shall have it our own way - we shall protect our nation and freedom,' said

Djukanovic, voicing the hope that international community would support

him...'We're ever closer to the referendum on independence, our patience has

limits, we don't want to waste time. Montenegro is not ready to sacrifice

its future to the ambitions of the Belgrade dictator to keep power until his

death,' Djukanovic told CTK. 'Now we're closer to Montenegro's national

independence than ever, closer than yesterday, but we shall carefully choose

the time for referendum in which Montenegrins will choose the future of

their nation,' he added. 'Montenegro wants to provide the Yugoslav

leadership with time to reconsider its steps,' Djukanovic said." (CTK news

agency--Prague, July 11)

PM: REFERENDUM UP TO "SUCCESS OF SERBIAN OPPOSITION"

***"Montenegro will not rush into a referendum on secession, said

Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic on Monday, adding that everything

depended on the success or failure of the Serbian opposition in

democratising Serbia. Vujanovic told Czech radio that the Montenegrin

government would follow the development of the situation in Serbia in the

hope that the Serbian opposition would finally unite and defeat Yugoslav

President Slobodan Milosevic at elections. 'At the Sveti Stefan meeting the

Serbian opposition assured us that they wanted to renew the union with

Montenegro on a democratic basis. We are waiting for this and the referendum

depends on it,' said Vujanovic, adding that the Montenegrin government

believed that two thirds of Montenegro's voters would opt for separation

from Serbia." (independent Radio B2-92-Belgrade, July 19) "Prime Minister

Vujanovic said that we would continue with the patient and wise policy of

not falling into Milosevic's trap of causing fresh clashes. There will be no

referendum in Montenegro as long as there is a possibility of conflict,

which could be caused by Milosevic, Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip

Vujanovic said in Durres." (independent Radio Montenegro-Podgorica, July 10)

III. SERBIAN REACTIONS

SPO: NEW FEDERAL ELECTION LAWS "DRAMATICALLY DEEPEN FRY CRISIS"

***"On July 19 the Serbian Renewal Movement announced that the group of new

election laws, which the Yugoslav government has sent to Parliament for

adoption, 'will additionally worsen the overall political situation and

dramatically deepen the crisis in the federal state.' In its statement,

Renewal said that the laws based on the new federal Constitution that was

amended without the participation of the legitimate representatives of

Montenegro, 'will represent grounds for irregular elections and for the

continued deterioration of the country and suffering of the people.' Renewal

reiterated that 'all those who run in elections under present conditions

will practically support the current regime and make impossible the survival

of the union of Serbia and Montenegro and true democratic changes.' " (BETA

independent news agency, July 20)

VJ "FULL COMBAT READINESS" AMID COUP PREPARATIONS?

***"During a recent session of the Montenegrin Assembly at which a

resolution to protect the interests of Montenegro and its citizens was

adopted, [Yugoslav Army] military units were in a state of full combat

readiness awaiting an order to intervene in the political crisis in

Montenegro, in the expectation that official Podgorica would declare

Montenegro's independence, sources close to the military circles in

Podgorica - who want to remain anonymous - have told Montena-fax. 'The

recent statement by the Yugoslav Army General Staff, which was loaded with

heavy political criticism of President Milo Djukanovic, was intended to

prepare the public for more radical measures against the legally-elected

Montenegrin leadership, the agency's source said, claiming that generals

loyal to Milosevic, 'expecting the Montenegrin Assembly to adopt an act

proclaiming independence as an answer to the unlawful changes to the federal

constitution, made all preparations to carry out a coup d'etat and to change

the government by force'. The source highlights that the [Montenegrin

Assembly] session took place in 'dramatic circumstances and in a situation

of full military readiness of the [Yugoslav Army] units throughout

Montenegro and Serbia'. The aforementioned preparations for a military coup

were carried out 'with the active participation of so-called federal Prime

Minister Momir Bulatovic, who on that day was in Podgorica and in constant

communication with the top military commanders in Belgrade and Podgorica,

expecting a military intervention and to take over the duties as

[Montenegrin] president'. The same source also spoke of plans to deploy the

military police of the 7th battalion in September to carry out certain

'duties' in Montenegro towards the end of the year, and that the members of

this unit have been criticized because, they were told, they had behaved in

a cowardly and hasty fashion during incidents with members [Montenegro's]

Ministry of Internal Affairs." (Montena fax independent news

agency-Podgorica, July 12) "NATO General Secretary George Robertson stated

on July 19 that he had no information on the Yugoslav Army preparing a coup

d'etat in Montenegro last week...'I have no information about a military

coup in Montenegro and I've made it very clear on a number of occasions as

Secretary General of NATO that we watch with care and concern what is going

on in Montenegro,' Robertson stated at a news conference in Sarajevo.

'President Milosevic should be aware that the international community is

also concerned about what is happening and the right of (Montenegrin)

President (Milo) Djukanovic to be able to fulfill the mandate given to him

by the Montenegrin people,' he said." (BETA news agency, July 20)

SESELJ: PROTECT CONSTITUTION "WITH ALL MEANS"

***"The chairman of the Serbian Radical Party [SRS], Vojislav Seselj, has

said that Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic should be arrested 'because

of his cooperation with NATO aggressors, his meetings and talks with the

Hague tribunal chief prosecutor Carla Del Ponte, as well as the apology

which he sent to the Croatian nation'. Speaking on independent Montenegrin

Montena Radio, Seselj assessed the announced holding of a referendum on the

legal and constitutional status of Montenegro as anti-constitutional. 'We

are bound by the federal constitution and we will fight to protect it with

all the means at our disposal. As regards the Serbian Radical Party, I have

said that there are already enough reasons for Djukanovic to be arrested. If

he even tried to hold such an anti-constitutional referendum, I do not think

we should hesitate (to arrest him). The person who, according to their

constitutional responsibilities, should arrest him and who fails to do so,

will then be held accountable,' Seselj said, adding that these messages had

been forwarded to 'Djukanovic's separatist regime'." (BH Press news

agency-Sarajevo, July 9)

SERBIAN NGOs: CHANGES "UNDERMINING FRY CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER"

***"With regard to the constitutional changes of July 6, 2000,

representatives of the "Community for Change" express their solidarity with

the people and government of Montenegro, as well as with all citizens and

pro-democracy forces from Serbia who are for democratic changes. The changes

of the constitution adopted by the Federal Parliament of FRY are not valid.

They were adopted by violation of the Constitution because they were adopted

without consultations with or participation of legitimate and legal

representatives of the people of Montenegro, a republic member of the FRY.

One of the houses of the Federal Parliament, the upper house of Republics,

did not have legally elected and legitimate representatives of the Republic

of Montenegro present when deciding upon the changes. Contrary to the

preamble of the Constitution, the changes were adopted without prior

approval by the Parliament of the Republic of Serbia and the Parliament of

the Republic of Montenegro... Therefore, the Community for Change assesses

that the act of adoption of constitutional changes of July 6 was an

unconstitutional act directed at undermining the consitutional order of the

FRY." (statement by Serbian, NGO, media and opposition meeting sponsored by

Slovakia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs-Bratislava, July 8)

CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES DEEPEN OPPOSITION SPLIT

***"The Serbian opposition, greatly embittered, reacted Thursday to the

adoption of the changes in the FRY Constitution which, according to their

judgement, additionally consolidates the position of President Slobodan

Milosevic, report the independent media. However, even after the latest

move of the regime, the differences in the opinions of the opposition

whether to take part in this year's federal and local elections still exist.

Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) issued a statement in which it found that the

introducing of elections with direct voting for the FRY President

'completely destroys the statehood of Montenegro, and is an insult to the

dignity of its citizens', as well as that it means the beginning of the

break-up of the joint state. President of the Social Democratic Union (SDU)

Zarko Korac admitted that, at present, the opposition does not have a

candidate who could stand up to Milosevic in the elections. 'Milosevic is

counting on the fact that the opposition is not united', stated Korac for

the press in London, where he is visiting as a member of a delegation of the

opposition. 'It's not that he (Milosevic) is popular, it's that no one is

more popular than him', he added. Korac, whose party is also in favor of

taking part in the elections, admitted that the changes in the Constitution

will cause 'a serious problem to the opposition', baring in mind its stand

to participate in the elections despite the unfavorable conditions. Nenad

Canak, President of the League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina (LSV) stated

that the changes in the Constitution will mean 'parting with Montenegro'.

'In the end, we will call with the name of Yugoslavia only a couple of

municipalities on the territory of Serbia and occupied (north Serbian

Province) Vojvodina - only so Milosevic could have a place to [be] President

in', stated Canak." (V.I.P.Daily News Report-Belgrade, July 7)

IV. INTERNATIONAL & REGIONAL REACTION

WASHINGTON: "GROTESQUE EFFORT TO STIFLE DEMOCRATIC CHANGE"

***Q: "The Yugoslav Parliament has approved constitutional changes that

would allow Milosevic to seek a second term, meaning we could see him in

power for another eight years. Do you have any reaction? MR. BOUCHER: First

of all, the regime has manipulated the parliamentary rules in order to

restrict the expression of views that oppose the regime's. The size of the

majority shows that the current parliament is little more than a rubber

stamp. There appears to be a grotesque effort under way by Milosevic to

stifle prospects for a democratic, peaceful change in Yugoslavia. It reveals

his own fears. He is changing the rules because he cannot win fairly now. He

is stripping away legal formalities behind which he's hidden. And the

choice, we think, for the people of Serbia and for his coalition is stark:

It's either him or democracy in Serbia. The changes that he is making are

unusual in several respects. I mean, we don't know yet the mechanics. He is

proposing some kind of elections. But the amendments have been now approved

in principle before they're even written. So there's some changes to

elections being proposed, but they haven't been written yet; they've been

approved already, though...This change is undertaken, we understand, without

any consultation with Montenegro...It's another of the many examples of the

Milosevic regime in Belgrade ignoring Montenegro's rights under their

constitution." (Richard Boucher, U.S. State Dept.spokesman, press briefing,

July 6)

U.S. PLEDGES MORE CASH

***"Secretary of State Madeleine Albright spoke with Montenegrin President

Milo Djukanovic this afternoon. She reassured him that U.S. support for his

government continues in the face of efforts by the Belgrade regime to

provoke conflict and strip Montenegro of its constitutional rights. The

Secretary noted that there is strong international support for Montenegro as

evident in statements of the European Union and the G-8 foreign ministers.

Secretary Albright told President Djukanovic that the Clinton Administration

plans to notify Congress of our intention to provide an additional $16.5

million for democratization and economic reform in Montenegro. Secretary

Albright and President Djukanovic agreed to meet soon to continue their

discussion...Last week the supine federal parliament approved Milosevic's

proposed constitutional changes concerning the election of the federal

President and the upper house of the parliament. These changes have the

effect of reducing Montenegro's role in governing Yugoslavia. The amendments

were adopted without consulting Montenegro and have been rejected by the

Montenegro Parliament as illegitimate. In FY 2000, the United States

Government has already allocated $60.56 million in assistance to the

Government of Montenegro. Following approval by the Congress, the $16.5

million will be in addition." (statement, U.S. Dept. of State spokesman

Richard Boucher,, July 13)

ROBERTSON TO MILOSEVIC: DON'T UNDERESTIMATE NATO DETERMINATION

***"NATO Secretary-General Lord Robertson said NATO is concerned about

Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's threats against Western-oriented

Montenegro, the smaller, less populous of the two republics that make up the

Yugoslav federation. 'We never underestimate the ability of Milosevic to

cause further mischief, even where he has been humiliated,' Robertson said.

'But neither Milosevic nor his agents will deflect us from our determination

to finish the job in Kosovo. He made one terrible mistake last year when he

underestimated NATO's unity and determination and he will be well advised to

remember that humiliation and stop causing trouble now.' " (Associated

Press, July 17) "Both [Croatian President Stipe] Mesic and Robertson voiced

concern about the situation in Montenegro, pointing out, however, they did

not believe it would escalate into another war on the Balkans." (HINA news

agency-Zagreb, July 17)

BERLIN: "VERY CONCERNED"

*** "German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer and his Slovenian counterpart

Alojz Peterle warned in Berlin Wednesday that an outbreak of violence might

take place in Montenegro following the controversial constitutional

amendment in Yugoslavia. Fischer said the German government was 'very

concerned' about the amendment, adopted by Belgrade in early July, because

in practice it annulled the equal status of the two Yugoslav republics -

Serbia and Montenegro - and permitted the re-election of Yugoslav President

Slobodan Milosevic for at least one more term. Peterle, who was Slovenia's

first freely elected prime minister - from 1990 to 1993 - and is foreign

minister in the new government established in June, described Belgrade's

move as similar to the removal of Kosovo's autonomy status in 1989. 'The

international community must remain very alert,' he told Deutsche

Presse-Agentur. New outbreaks of violence could develop very quickly in the

former Yugoslav, he added." (Deutsche Presse-Agentur, July 19)

SOLANA: BELGRADE "COULD TRIGGER NEW CRISIS"

***"The FRY and in particular Serbia are currently entering a particularly

dangerous period. Milosevic, having lost much of his popular support, is

desperately clinging to power. He now appears to be aiming to consolidate

his regime through elections this autumn and/or next year. As he cannot hope

to win free and fair elections he will make sure they are neither. The

rushed and completely undemocratic fashion, in which the recent

constitutional changes came about, the infamous draft for an anti-terrorism

law, the suppression of independent media and the current all out propaganda

campaign are all part of the regime's frantic efforts to preserve its power

at any price. In response to this situation we must reinforce our efforts in

support of democratic change, working closely with the democratic

opposition, with the independent media and with the relevant NGOs...We must

remain vigilant and ready to adjust our policies, including the sanctions

regime, in order to maximise our influence on the evolving situation. The

relative stability of Montenegro since the elections on 11 June remains

fragile. The current dispute over the constitutional amendments and the

federal elections due at the beginning of November could easily trigger a

new crisis. As economic and political pressure from Belgrade continues, so

must our determined efforts to support reform and democracy in Montenegro."

(statement to European Union General Affairs Council, Javier Solana, E.U.

High Representative of the Common Foreign and Security Policy, July

10-Brussels)

G-8 FOREIGN MINISTERS URGE RESTRAINT

***"We look forward to a democratic FRY, so that it can be reintegrated in

the international community and play its rightful part in contributing to

the stability of the entire region. We are very concerned about the

motivation for and the possible consequences of the revision of the FRY

constitution. We call on the government in Belgrade to refrain from any

action which could contribute to the further escalation of violence. We also

call on the opposition to contribute to the peaceful democratic development

of the FRY. We strongly oppose the recent restrictions on the free press in

the FRY. We welcome the continued consolidation of democracy in Montenegro,

reiterate our support for its democratically elected authorities, and urge

them to continue to practice restraint." (statement, G-8 Foreign Ministers,

July 13- Miyazaki, Japan) "Group of Eight foreign ministers struggled

Wednesday over Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's hotly-contested bid

to extend his rule, sources here said. Political directors from the big

powers meeting in Japan worked into the early hours of the morning

discussing Milosevic's power grab, emerging as one of the most divisive

topics here, they said. 'There is a great deal of concern in the G8 about

Milosevic's decision to ram through changes that would allow him to remain

in power for four more years,' said one source, speaking on condition of

anonymity. 'There is real concern about what it would do to the situation in

Montenegro as well as regional stability as a whole.'...Foreign ministers

from the G8 -- Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and

the United States -- met behind closed doors at the start of two days' talks

in the southern Japanese city of Miyazaki." (Agence France Presse, July 12)

***"There were no official reactions of the European Union and NATO to the

Belgrade changes in the Constitution by Friday, but, in a statement to Sense

[Brussels-based news agency], an EU high official stated that 'with utmost

concern and very carefully the situation in Serbia and Yugoslavia is being

monitored' from Berlin, reports Radio Index [Belgrade] on Thursday. Citing

unnamed sources, Sense reports that this EU high official stated the

European Union is also concerned with the procedure of constitutional

changes, for it is not a democratic one. The same source said that Brussels

is still willing to encourage the democratic changes in Serbia and offer its

support to the democratic opposition." (V.I.P. Daily News Report, July 7)

HAVEL, KUCAN, MESIC FOR REFERENDUM, SECURITY GUARANTEE

***"In its response to the moves of Belgrade the Montenegrin leadership is

fully supported by the Czech Republic, Croatia and Slovenia, the presidents

of the three countries said at their meeting with their Montenegrin

counterpart today. The four presidents jointly emphasized the effort to

settle the new Balkan crisis peacefully, but, at the same time they also

mentioned the possible use of force. 'Apart of all political instruments it

is also necessary to consider the alternative of the demonstration of

force,' Czech President Vaclav Havel, whose country is a member of NATO,

said after the meeting...All three presidents today assured Djukanovic that

a referendum was the only democratic way with which Montenegrins could voice

their will and the plebiscite was no provocation as regarded by the Yugoslav

leadership. The situation in Yugoslavia has been tense since Montenegro

rejected the changes in the Yugoslav Constitution which were to its

detriment and which enabled Milosevic to keep power. 'The constitutional

changes are threatening democracy, stripping members of the federation of

equality and arrogantly rejecting internationally recognized principles,'

the three presidents' joint statement said. The changes might lead to

Yugoslavia's further demise. 'The scenario of events in the region cannot be

written by a man accused of war crimes any longer,' they agreed...According

to the joint statement of the presidents, the international community will

go to extreme lengths to prevent the tension from leading to another wave of

violence. Any power or confrontational solution by the Belgrade regime would

be considered inadmissible, all the more that it might lead to the

destabilisation of the whole region, Havel, Milan Kucan and Stipe Mesic said

in a joint statement." (CTK news agency--Prague, July 11) "Stipe Mesic said

in Zagreb on 9 July that the threat of war in the Balkans 'will diminish in

proportion to the strength of the message that the international community

sends to Serbia or to Milosevic,' CTK reported. Visiting Czech President

Vaclav Havel added that 'it is always better to use political pressure and

political means to avert a conflict rather than tackle its consequences by

force.' " (RFE/RL Newsline, July 10) "Speaking in Dubrovnik on 10 July,

Havel said that he 'can imagine' Montenegro becoming independent, CTK

reported. He chided unnamed Western leaders who have repeatedly warned

Djukanovic against declaring independence, saying: 'I remember the surprise

of the democratic community of the Western world when it was [forced by

events] to recognize Slovenia and Croatia. Now, 10 years later, we can see

that the two countries...belong to the pillars of democracy in the area of

the former Yugoslavia.' " (RFE/RL Newsline, July 11)

V. ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATIONS

AMENDMENTS "TRICK TO PROVOKE" MONTENEGRIN OVERREACTION?

***"As well as prolonging his own political life, the amendments smelt of a

trick by Mr Milosevic to provoke his opponents into over-reacting -- and

thus providing a pretext for a new round of Balkan bloodshed. An important

effect of the changes is to erase the Montenegrins' notional equality with

Serbia in the Yugoslav parliament's upper house, which has significant veto

powers. Both the new Yugoslav head of state, previously chosen by

parliament, and the upper house will now be directly elected. Montenegro,

which has 600,000-odd people compared with Serbia's 8m (excluding Kosovo),

was previously over-represented to reflect its status as a republic.

Henceforth it will have no more political weight than its share of

Yugoslavia's population -- about 7%. In effect, Mr Milosevic has told

Montenegro: stay in the federation on our terms or dare to fight your way

out. This is a direct challenge to Milo Djukanovic...Mr Djukanovic is not,

however, rising to the bait. He said this week that Belgrade's irresponsible

behaviour had pushed Montenegrins 'closer than ever' to a vote on

independence, but not, it seems, quite to the point of organising one: the

Montenegrin prime minister, Filip Vujanovic, offered an assurance that no

such vote would be held 'as long as conflict is possible'. But in Vojvodina,

a northern province of Serbia that is home to many ethnic Hungarians, the

reaction has been ominous. A group of opposition leaders predict that

Montenegrin independence is 'only a matter of time' and say their own

province, which enjoyed autonomy before Mr Milosevic suppressed it, should

break free too. A battle over Vojvodina could even draw in Hungary, which

now belongs to NATO." (The Economist-London, July 15)

"CONSTITUTIONAL COUP D'ETAT"

***"The manner in which the Constitution was amended is the best

illustration of the rule of Milosevic's regime. While passing of the

mentioned anti-terrorist act was announced from the very top of the

authorities time and time again for weeks, causing a sharp polemics in

independent media, absolutely nothing has leaked in public about amendments

of the Constitution. In the midst of writing an article on the mysterious

taking of the draft law against terrorism off the agenda of the Assembly of

FRY, a journalist of a Belgrade weekly learnt that the next day, on July 6,

an extraordinary session of the parliament had been convened with a single

item on the agenda - amendment of the Constitution. Member of the

Constitutional Committee of the Assembly, Laslo Joza, never got the text of

draft constitutional amendments. 'I was told that they could not send them

by fax', he said...In the morning of July 6, not even the most experienced

experts on constitutional law in Belgrade believed that on that very day the

text of the amendments of the Constitution would actually be passed - they

had declared that the procedure would just be initiated. Deputies of the

parliament - who are meeting rarely or not at all...were extremely

efficient. They passed amendments to the highest legal act in the country in

just a couple of hours."

"First, on the president: he will not be elected by the federal assembly any

more, but by the people...Why? First, in order to reinforce his position in

relation to the Assembly and the Government which have no influence on his

election any more. Second, because he would not have to grapple for every

Montenegrin vote in the assembly in order to become president... Third,

because Serbia has about ten million inhabitants, and Montenegro some

600,000, so Montenegrin votes in direct elections would represent an

insignificant quantity. Fourth, even if Montenegro wished to nominate its

candidate for president, what chances would he have with the majority of

voters in Serbia? Instead of being entitled to a single four-year term in

office, nowadays 'the same person may be elected president, twice at the

most'. Of course, the previous three years Milosevic has spent in office

would not count because the procedure of his election was different.

Judging by the announcement of Nikola Sainovic, high official of the

Socialist Party of Serbia, presidential elections will be scheduled before

the expiry of Milosevic's term in office next year 'so as not to disrupt

continuity in operation of the state', whatever that might mean.

Unofficially, rumour goes that the elections for president could be

scheduled together with the federal and the local elections which are

planned to take place in autumn. As commented by foreign media which

reminded that Milosevic was indicted for war crimes by the Hague Tribunal,

'remaining in power would be the best guarantee for Milosevic against court

persecution'.

The possibility of the president being relieved of duty is equally probable

as that of the Danube flowing upstream: according to the newly passed

amendments, the president can be relieved of duty if the Constitutional

Court (controlled by Milosevic) establishes that he had violated the

Constitution, and then the procedure for relieving him of duty is initiated

by at least half of federal deputies in both assembly chambers (controlled

by Milosevic), and then two thirds of the deputies adopt the proposal for

relieving him of duty. Even that was not enough.

The procedure for election of deputies to the Chamber of the Republics which

should (as its name implies) guarantee equality of two member republics of

Yugoslav federation. Instead of having deputies in the Chamber of the

Republics, as before, delegated by republican assemblies (20 from Serbia and

20 from Montenegro), in the future, they will also be elected directly by

the voters. Since deputies in the Chamber of Citizens are already elected

directly in the elections, former judge of the Constitutional Court of

Serbia, Slobodan Vucetic, wonders why should the Assembly have two chambers

of citizens? In order to avoid the effect of multiplication of Montenegrin

votes due to federalism. Because of the drastic difference in the size of

the two republics, now Montenegro has five times more deputies in the

Assembly than it would be entitled to according to the number of

inhabitants. And finally, deputies of the Assembly of Montenegro would be

eliminated from the Chamber of the Republics, and therefrom the influence of

legal Montenegrin authorities which are opposed to Milosevic. The manner of

election and relieving of duty of ministers in Federal Government is also

changed. Until now, the prime minister could nominate and relieve of duty

ministers as he pleased, and in the future he will have to ensure agreement

of the parliament for that. The goal is to weaken the post of the prime

minister and (further) strengthen the post of the president."

(AIM/Alternative Information Network-Podgorica, July 8)

MILOSEVIC "ABOLISHED THE CONSTITUTION"

***"The unlawful constitutional amendments, passed last week by the Yugoslav

'parliament', came as a result of Milosevic's need to extend his

presidential mandate. He simply abolished the constitution that did not

permit him to stay in office another term and, at the same time, he raised

the stakes in his struggle against Podgorica's authorities. The

constitutional amendments were prepared illegally and were implemented

hurriedly. It was done without any public debate and behind the back of

Montenegro, theoretically an equal partner in the Yugoslav federation...The

latest constitutional changes, although not substantial at the first glance,

are transforming the character of the FRY political system. The role of the

federal president is significantly strengthened...The constitutional changes

in FRY are the result of one man's unlimited thirst for power. Should

Montenegro accept the reforms, its position in the federation would be

considerably weakened. Each of the constitutional changes betray an

intention to sideline Montenegro. Getting the electorate to vote for a

federal president means that he's unlikely to ever come from Montenegro,

since its population is much smaller than Serbia's. Moreover, electing

deputies to the upper house through the ballot box will deny Montenegro any

influence in the running of the federation...The Podgorica authorities

stopped short of calling for independence. However, they were forced to

state that the changes would not be valid in Montenegro and to freeze all

the decisions and actions implemented without legally elected Montenegrin

representatives in the federal parliament. In other words, the Montenegrin

government and parliament sent a message to Belgrade that even though its

army remains in Montenegro, it doesn't have any control or authority over

the republic. And if it wished to exercise such power, it could not do so by

peaceful means. Following the constitutional changes, Djukanovic announced

he would boycott forthcoming federal elections. This is precisely what

Milosevic wants. He is likely to press ahead with the so-called ballot in

Montenegro despite protests of the majority of its citizens. He'll declare

himself the winner, allowing his Montenegrin loyalists to gain seats in the

federal parliament. At the same time, Milosevic will deal a decisive blow to

the Serbian opposition - without the support of Djukanovic in the federal

parliament they are unable to play any serious role. The constitutional

changes were necessary for the survival of the federal president, but the

political struggle between Serbia and Montenegro will continue regardless of

the amendments. Montenegro's fate is a prolonged and tense political fight

with Belgrade, which might sporadically erupt into a crisis and precipitate

another Balkan war. Serbia's democratic forces, meanwhile, face a daily

struggle against one of the most dangerous and obstinate authoritarian

regimes in this region." (IWPR Balkan Crisis Report- London, July 12)

THE MILOSEVIC-SESELJ DEAL

***"The Yugoslav president did not wish to be Federal Prime Minister as this

would imply a great deal of operative jobs, and what Milosevic likes best of

all is to sit in his shadowy office, summon Yugoslav and Serbian officials

and issue orders to them. This is why Milosevic was compelled to launch an

offensive and fight for changes of the FRY Constitution, for which he needs

a two-third majority in both houses of Yugoslav Parliament. In order to gain

the two-third majority in both houses, he had to embark upon a grand trade

with Vojislav Seselj, Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader...Milosevic was

previously also aided by Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) leader Vuk

Draskovic, who lost his four seats in the Serbian delegation in the Chamber

of Republics due to the boycott of the Serbian Parliament...For some time

now, Seselj has been blackmailing the SPS and JUL, which has sparked many

reservations towards him, especially within the SPS. Seselj, however, has

enlarged his stake and requested that several of his law projects be passed

in Parliament, in order to vote in return for the controversial

Anti-Terrorism Law. Seselj's laws were aimed at boosting his popular

support, since the citizens would directly benefit from the return of frozen

foreign currency savings. In the same way, Seselj wanted to gain control

over part of the public companies, which would increase his earnings as well

as his public influence. As claimed by some sources in the ruling coalition,

Seselj has requested control of the Beopetrol Oil Company, dean posts at a

number of Belgrade faculties, the Law faculty, among others, as well as some

new TV channels and control of TV Studio B in particular. Beopetrol is the

second in size Serbian chain of petrol stations and is currently controlled

by the JUL. Seselj's requests were way too large in return for the

Anti-Terrorism Law alone. That is why Milosevic decided to accept Seselj's

requests on condition that the leader of the radicals agrees to voting in

favour of alterations of the FRY Constitution. Through these constitutional

changes, Milosevic desires to establish a presidential system and also be

formally the most powerful political figure in the country. Under the

current constitutional provisions, the most powerful formal role belongs to

the Yugoslav Prime Minister. This is why Milosevic is likely to try to

introduce some other novelties apart from the direct election of Yugoslav

President and Chamber of Republics. Some sources in the ruling coalition

claim that the new Yugoslav president will take over the most important

authorizations (foreign affairs, military issues and issues of war and

peace) from the federal government...However, some sources from the

left-wing coalition claim that many SPS officials were surprised with such

an upshot and that this has caused turbulence within the ruling left-wing

coalition." (V.I.P. Daily News Report, July 6)

NOVEMBER ELECTIONS PROSPECTS?

***"According to the regular schedule, local and federal elections in

Yugoslavia are due to be held by the end of year, most probably in November.

Many opinion polls conducted by experts of the ruling coalition said that

the regime would lose the local elections. The SPS and JUL did not have a

much better position in elections for federal parliament, especially if

Djukanovic would decide to take part in these elections. The Montenegrin

president, according to information from Montenegro, has opted in favour of

participating in federal elections. This brought unrest among Milosevic's

men, who had received orders from their boss to win the local elections in

Belgrade at all costs, as well as the federal elections. This is why

Milosevic decided to use himself as a trump card up the sleeve for the

victory of his coalition in elections. As a presidential candidate, he will

draw a considerable number of votes for his left-wing coalition, his

loyalists believe. Also, if Milosevic becomes a powerful Yugoslav president

elected directly, then it will no longer be of much consequence what the

balance of forces is in the federal and local parliaments. Milosevic can

continue to rule without impediment through the control of the army, police,

the media and the gray economy. Milosevic is now counting on not having a

powerful rival candidate from the ranks of the opposition. Draskovic cannot

beat him. Also, neither Djindjic nor Kostunica are strong enough candidates.

Djukanovic is unlikely to want to appear as Milosevic's opponent. Due to

mutual rifts and contrary interests, it is highly unlikely that the

opposition could find a single candidate who would receive support from all.

With all this in mind, Milosevic could win...There is one more favourable

circumstance for Milosevic still - upcoming elections will not be monitored

by OSCE observers. Milosevic is in isolation and any kind of pressure from

abroad is of absolutely no concern to him." (V.I.P. Daily News Report, July

6) "The announcement of president of Serb Radical Party Vojislav Seselj from

the assembly platform that federal elections will in the future be organized

by the federal government most probably means that elections are planned

even contrary to the will of the Republican authorities. If federal prime

minister Momir Bulatovic, unrecognized by the officials from Montenegro,

decides to actually distribute ballot boxes around that Republic, maybe even

with the help of the Army, pretending that legal authorities do not exist -

will Djukanovic be able to peacefully watch, pretending that he does not see

them either? Or will he use his numerous, modern and well-equipped police to

prevent such elections? In any case, the conflict with Montenegro has never

been more probable." (AIM/Alternative Information Network-Podgorica, July 8)