S E R B I A / M O N T E N E G R O W A T C H # 137- July 26, 2000

Serbia Watch, a bulletin reporting civil society, political and economic

developments on Serbia, is issued by the Open Society Institute (Washington

office-John Fox, director). Please communicate any questions, comments

or requests to receive Serbia Watch to:

Kristine Powers (researcher) at 202-496-2401 or kpowers@osi-dc.org

S P E C I A L I S S U E: E L E C T I O N S

"[The change of the FRY constitution] on a purely formal level, was made in

accord with the legal rules. But Germans know from their history what can

follow...I am not going to beat around the bush, the constitutional change

that he ( Milosevic) pushed through gives him absolute power...Sometimes we

must say things the way they really are."

Gerhard Schroeder, Chancellor of Germany

Quoted by Agence France Presse, July 23 -- Okinawa

"We look forward to a democratic Federal Republic of Yugoslavia so that it

can be reintegrated in the international community and play its rightful

part in contributing to the stability of the entire region. We are very

concerned by the motivation for and the possible consequences of the

revision of the FRY Constitution. We call on the government in Belgrade to

refrain from any action which could contribute to the further escalation of

violence. We also call on the opposition to contribute to the peaceful

democratic development of the FRY. We strongly oppose the recent

restrictions on the free press in the FRY. We welcome the continued

consolidation of democracy in Montenegro, reiterate our support for its

democratically elected authorities, and urge them to continue to practice

restraint."

statement, Group of 8, July 21 -- Okinawa

"Even though we have not received the official G-8 statement, it is obvious

from agency reports that the leaders of the most developed nations and

Russia have concluded that the illegal amendments to the Yugoslav

constitution should not be recognized. This means that they will not accept

the Yugoslav federal election result...As far as Montenegro is concerned

they [G-8 conclusions] represent an outstanding affirmation of the

thoughtful and yet resolute stands adopted by the Montenegrin Assembly in

response to the constitutional amendments. They are also a sign of full

support for the democratic development of Montenegro. This represents the

full internationalization of the problem and the resolution of the

international community to be awake and monitor all the developments, and to

provide political and security guarantees to Montenegro...The other

important thing is the fact that Russia has accepted the conclusions and

supports them...It is only a question of time before such issues will be

addressed by the UN Security Council and when international law will be

codified through adequate pacts and other international instruments."

Branko Lukovac, Foreign Minister of Montenegro

Quoted by TV Crna Gora, July 23 -- Podgorica

"Montenegro will not take part in those elections in which Milosevic's power

will be enforced. The parties that adopted the Parliament resolution (which

rejected changes to the Federal Constitution a few weeks ago), the Liberal

Party as well as Albanian political forces, will not take part in the

federal elections, while the government of Montenegro will not implement any

federal government law."

Filip Vujanovic, Prime Minister of Montenegro

Quoted by United Press Iinternational, July 23 -- Podgorica

"The weak side of this project is a possibility that Serbs unite against

Milosevic, fearing the risk of spending the rest of their lives together

with the ruler who thinks he is a God. By offering a direct vote, Milosevic

has given a fantastic possibility to Serbs...not to elect him. More

precisely, he has offered everyone the cheapest possibility for his

departure...Not a revolution, not a counter-revolution, not a civil war, not

an uprising - only a little bit of Serb intelligence."

Aleksandar Tijanic, Serbia's ex-Minister of Information

Quoted by Blic news July 19 -- Belgrade

IN THIS SERBIA / MONTENEGRO WATCH:

-- New electoral laws adopted

-- Milosevic SPS candidate for

fall presidential elections

-- New election commission; tax hike for defense

-- Podgorica will boycott federal elections

-- Podgorica warned not to block elections

-- Djukanovic won't run for FRY president

-- Sandzak leader: Milosevic "preparing warpath"

-- Germany, Italy won't recognize FRY elections

-- Putin distancing from Milosevic?

-- Opposition (minus SPO) agrees to

field joint candidate

-- Draskovic: Boycott elections

-- SPO boycott threatens Vuk's

& opposition's prospects

-- Parties pressure Vuk to join them

-- Poll: 43% against boycott, 32% for opposition

-- Svilanovic: We can win

-- Opposition confusion over G-8 statements

-- Montenegrin officials, opposition

-- September elections?

-- Polls: Milosevic most trusted politician

-- OTPOR for single opposition candidate

-- Stambolic for president?

POLITICAL PARTIES, MOVEMENTS, LEADERS:

Serbia's Opposition

DA - Democratic Alternative (Nebojsa Covic, president)

DAN - Coalition of DA, DC, ND

DC - Democratic Center (Dragoijub Micunovic, president)

DHSS - Christian Democratic Party of Serbia (Vladan Batic, president)

DS - Democratic Party (Zoran Djindjic, president)

DSS - Democratic Party of Serbia (Vojislav Kostunica, president)

G-17 - Group of independent economists (Mladjan Dinkic, coordinator)

GSS - Civic Alliance of Serbia (Goran Svilanovic, president)

League of Vojvodina Hungarians (Joszef Kasza, chairman)

LSV - League of Vojvodina Social Democrats (Nenad Canak, chairman)

ND - New Democracy (Dusan Mihajlovic, president)

NS - New Serbia (Milan Protic, Velimir Ilic, co-presidents)

OTPOR - Youth movement "Resistance"

PDS - Movement for Democratic Serbia (Momcilo Perisic, president)

Reform Democratic Party of Vojvodina (Mile Isakov, chairman)

Sandzak Coalition (Rasim Ljajic, chairman)

SD - Social Democracy (Vuk Obradovic, president)

SDA- Party of Democratic Action of Sandzak (Sulejman Ugljanin, pres.)

SDU - Social Democratic Union (Zarko Korac, president)

SPO - Serbian Renewal Party (Vuk Draskovic, president)

SZP - Alliance for Change (Zoran Djindjic, coordinator)

Vojvodina Coalition (Dragan Veselinov, president)

SNV - Serb National Council of Kosovo (Momcilo Trajkovic, chairman)

Serbia's Ruling Coalition

SPS - Serbian Socialist Party (Slobodan Milosevic, FRY President)

SRS - Serbian Radical Party (Vojislav Seselj, Serbia's Deputy PM)

JUL - Yugoslav United Left (Mira Markovic, president)

Montenegro's Ruling Coalition

DPS-Democratic Party of Socialists (Milo Djukanovic, President)

NS - People's Party of Montenegro (Dragan Soc, President)

SDP - Social Democratic Party of Montenegro (Zarko Rakcevic, president)

Montenegro's Opposition

SNP- Socialist People's Party of Montenegro (Momir Bulatovic, president)

LSCG - Liberal Alliance of Montenegro (Miodrag Zivkovic, leader)

Serbia's Ruling Coalition

SPS -Serbian Socialist Party (Slobodan Milosevic, FRY President)

SRS - Serbian Radical Party (Vojislav Seselj, Serbia's Deputy PM)

JUL - Yugoslav United Left (Mira Markovic, president)

Other

VJ - Yugoslav National Army

FRY - Federal Republic of Yugoslavia)

I. MILOSEVIC'S ELECTION MOVES

NEW ELECTORAL LAWS ADOPTED

***"In a session on July 24, the Yugoslav Parliament passed a package of

election laws envisaging that future Yugoslav presidents and upper house

members be elected directly by voters. The election laws package was based

on the constitutional amendments passed by Parliament on July 6. The Chamber

of Republics (upper house) unanimously adopted the proposed election

package, finishing the entire parliament session in 35 minutes. The Chamber

of Citizens, or lower house, adopted the law with 88 votes in favor, while

six opposition MPs' voted against it. Under the newly-adopted Law on

Electing the FRY President, voter turnout will be irrelevant, meaning that

the candidate with the simple majority of votes wins the election. It

foresees the possibility for the re-election of an incumbent president to

serve a total of two terms in office. Parliament also passed a law for upper

house members to be elected in direct polls, instead of by having the

republics' legislatures appointing 40 MPs (20 each from Serbia and

Montenegro), as has been the practice so far. It passed another law, on

lower house members, which divides Serbia into 26 polling districts

(previously 29), envisaging Montenegro as a single polling district and

annexing three polling districts in Kosovo and Metohija to polling districts

in southern Serbia (Prokuplje, Vranje). The laws were passed in the absence

of Montenegro's ruling For a Better Life coalition...Both houses of

Parliament are meeting in an extraordinary session on July 25 to review

proposed amendments and additions to the Law on Supplementary Defense Funds,

and to appoint a federal election commission [see below for update]." (BETA

independent news agency-Belgrade, July 25) "The draft bill, slammed by

Milosevic's foes in Serbia and pro-Western federation partner Montenegro,

proposes a second-round vote for the two top candidates if no one wins a

majority in the first round." (Agence France Presse, July 24) "The assembly

also adopted changes to the elections for the federal parliament, including

allowing Serbs and other non-Albanians from the UN-administered Yugoslav

province of Kosovo to vote in Serbia proper. Yugoslavia's federal and local

polls are scheduled for this autumn and a presidential vote could be held at

the same time." (Agence France Presse, July 24) "Reporters of independent

media have been barred from covering Monday's session. The federal

parliament was continuing its debate Tuesday on constitutional changes."

(Deutsche Presse Agentur, July 24)

MILOSEVIC IS SPS CANDIDATE FOR FALL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

***"A senior member of the Socialist Party of Serbia [SPS] leadership, Ivica

Dacic, has confirmed that Slobodan Milosevic will be the SPS candidate in

the autumn presidential elections. In a statement for YU-Info TV

[Milosevic-run TV station in Montenegro], Dacic said...'Slobodan Milosevic

is without any doubt the political figure number one in the FRY. We are

pleased that the SPS has become a synonym for the fight for freedom and

independence. Our president Milosevic is the symbol of that struggle for the

defence of sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of our small

but great country, which managed to defend itself against the new world

order which wipes out the sovereignty of all the small countries in the

world,' Dacic said, adding that, thanks to Milosevic, the FRY managed 'to

preserve our right to decide about our fate ourselves, which many other

countries failed to do. We expect to win the forthcoming elections, both at

the local and federal level, because all these years we have worked in the

interest of our people, our citizens, and fought for the survival of our

country,' Dacic said, adding that 'only those political forces can win the

elections which have worked in the interest of their own people and their

country, not in the interest of the enemies who bombed us and killed our

children'." (Montena fax independent news agency-Podgorica, July 24)

***"According to the Draft Law on the Election of the President of the FRY,

the candidate who gets the votes of two out of only three citizens who show

at the polls, can be elected to this post. That is why this bill will remain

in the history as an example of how one's own state and its citizens can be

insulted only for the sake of remaining in power, how legality can turn into

lawlessness. The other two election laws, referred to the Federal Assembly

for enactment, also lay groundwork for the doctoring of upcoming elections

and for further overall retrogression and degradation. Apart from unlawful

contents of the set of electoral laws, their quite certain enactment will be

unlawful as well, because the legitimate representatives of Montenegro are

not participating in the work of the Chamber of Citizens." (statement,

Serbian Renewal Movement, July 24)

NEW LAW DISQUALIFIES AVRAMOVIC FROM RACE

***"When (former National Bank of Yugoslavia govenor and SZP leader)

Dragoslav Avramovic would like to run for the post [of FRY president], it

turns out that he does not fulfill the conditions since he did not

permanently reside in the country over the past 10 years." (V.I.P. Daily

News Report-Belgrade, July 25)

***"So far federal elections for the Socialist Party of Serbia have always

meant a starting advantage provided by the Kosovo Albanians by boycotting

elections. Thus, with a minimal number of Serbian votes from Kosovo, the

socialists used to get 14 deputy mandates from three Kosovo electoral units

(12 in Kosovo and 2 deputies from Kosovo which were elected in the Vranje

electoral unit.) According to new law on electoral units, the number of

deputies from Kosovo has remained the same, however, Kosovo polling stations

have been joined to electoral units in Vranje and Prokuplje. It is

interesting, however, that at the establishment of the number of Kosovo

deputies, the regime used lists of voters that include Kosovo Albanians that

stayed in that province. In that way the regime has again worked out a safe

method to secure for itself 14 deputy mandates in the Chamber of Citizens."

(independent Blic daily-Belgrade, July 24)

NEW ELECTION COMMISSION; TAX HIKE FOR DEFENSE

***"The Yugoslav Assembly's Chamber of Republics today adopted amendments to

the law on additional funds for the country's defence, according to which

the current rate of the special federal tax on sales and services turnover

will be increased from 25 per cent to 50 per cent on average. The other

assembly chamber, the Chamber of Citizens, is still debating these

amendments. The amendments to the law in the Chamber of Republics were

adopted in 10 minutes, without any debate. The chamber also elected the

Federal Election Commission, but the members of the commission have not been

named. The assembly sessions are not being attended by the deputies from the

Montenegrin 'For a Better Life' ruling coalition (the Democratic Party of

Socialists, the People's Party and the Social Democratic Party of

Montenegro), because they take the view that the current Montenegrin

delegation in the Chamber of Republics is illegitimate." (BETA news agency,

July 25)

II. MONTENEGRO RESPONDS

PODGORICA WILL BOYCOTT FEDERAL ELECTIONS

***"Montenegro will not take part in the coming elections for the president

of Yugoslavia but will support the Serbian opposition's candidate, a senior

Democratic Socialist Party official said yesterday. Miodrag Vukovic, who is

a senior advisor to Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic told Belgrade

daily Danas 'We are working on the same task: getting rid of the disease of

dictatorship which has led from one disaster to another'. Asked whether the

Serbian opposition was capable of uniting, Vukovic said that it had the

problem of the Serbian Renewal Movement, which was the strongest opposition

party, not supporting elections under the current conditions." (Radio B2-92,

July 25) "Montenegro will boycott the upcoming Yugoslav federation fall

elections that are expected to further strengthen the power of Yugoslav

President Slobodan Milosevic and his Serb-dominated Belgrade

government....Analysts considered the elections a potential danger to

Montenegro's stability. They believe Milosevic will organize the elections

with the backing of the Yugoslav army -- possibly using military barracks as

polling places. Such a move, however, could provoke the Montenegrin

government to take some sort of radical step to counter Milosevic. On

Saturday, Miodrag Vukovic, a political advisor to President Milo Djukanovic,

said the federal elections were illegal, and if Milosevic wins another

4-year term, it would be impossible for Montenegro to stand up to the

pressure from Belgrade any longer...Montenegrin authorities have warned

Serbia's opposition leaders that they do not want to lose another decade

under Milosevic's rule. However, the authorities have become more cautious

regarding the discussions of a referendum on independence since the

municipal elections in June, that Milosevic's supporters won in the Herceg

Novi district, proving that the balance of political power in Montenegro is

still fragile. Three weeks ago Vujanovic said, 'Montenegro will not hold a

referendum, because the risk of a conflict still exists and Milosevic could

use it to open a new crises in Montenegro, sparking a new crisis in the

region.' " (United Press International, July 23)

PODGORICA WARNED NOT TO BLOCK ELECTIONS

***"The Socialist People's Party of Montenegro vice-president, Zoran Zizic,

has said that federal elections will be held both in Serbia and Montenegro

under the elections laws that were adopted by the FRY Parliament on July 24.

Zizic said that whether certain political parties would run or not, like the

Democratic Party of Socialists, was a matter of 'their own political

decision' and added that boycotting the elections 'will not, in any way,

question the federal elections' regularity.' He said that a forceful

prevention of the elections by the ruling oligarchy in Montenegro 'should

not happen, as it would create high tensions and an irresponsible, immature,

unscrupulous attack on the people of Montenegro and the federal state.'"

(BETA news agency, July 24)

MONTENEGRO WILL STAY DEMOCRATIC "WITH OR WITHOUT SERBIA"

***"Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic on Tuesday condemned Yugoslav

federal elections laws just passed in a clear attempt to keep Slobodon

Milosevic in power as 'illegal and violent,' accusing the Serb leader of

trying to provoke an armed conflict between the two remaining members of the

Yugoslav federation. 'The only motivation for this is (Milosevic's) will to

stay in power,' Djukanovic said after a meeting with German Foreign Minister

Joschka Fischer in Berlin. Montenegro won't implement the changes, he

said...'Montenegro will remain democratic, multi-ethnic and European, with

or without Serbia,' Djukanovic said. While the republic will avoid steps

that could lead to war, it will also reject 'bad compromises that could

endanger economic reforms or integration with European and Atlantic

structures,' he added. Djukanovic, who traveling to Paris later Monday,

called on Western countries to redouble their diplomatic efforts to prevent

a new Balkan conflict. Fischer offered Germany's 'solidarity' and 'political

support' to Montenegro's pro-Western government and said he was 'very

concerned' about the recent moves by Milosevic to consolidate his grip on

power. The fractious Yugoslav opposition, including the Montenegrin

government, must present a united front and 'prevent Milosevic from leading

Yugoslavia deeper into disaster,' Fischer said." (Associated Press, July 25)

DJUKANOVIC WON'T RUN FOR FRY PRESIDENT

***"Montenegro said today that its pro-Western president will not run

against Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic if an election is called later

this year. In a telephone interview with RFE/RL, Montenegrin Prime Minister

Filip Vujanovic said that President Milo Djukanovic intends to keep his

office. 'No, absolutely not. He is the president of Montenegro, entrusted by

the citizens and he is fulfilling his public mandate, which he has said many

times.' Some of Djukanovic's political advisers argue that it is vital to

prepare the ground for a referendum before federal elections are officially

announced. But support for such a poll is far from universal in Montenegro.

Even Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists is split on whether to call

a referendum, largely because Western governments are opposed to it and

because it could provide a pretext for Yugoslav military intervention. 'We

have no idea when we will call a referendum. We are expecting the situation

in Serbia to develop democratically, and then we'll see what Montenegro's

position looks like, whether we will make an agreement with Serbian

opposition to save the federal state on the principles of state, national

and civic equality with the others. And if not, then we will call a

referendum.' But as Montenegro continues to wait, Milosevic is moving

steadily forward with plans for elections. Belgrade has already set in

motion logistical preparations for elections at Yugoslav Army bases in

districts controlled by the pro-Milosevic Socialist People's Party of

Montenegro." (Radio Free Europe, Balkan Report, July 19)

CONSTITUTIONAL JUDGE: FRY COURT SHOULD DEFEND FEDERALISM

***"The president of the Montenegrin Constitutional Court, Nikola Vujanovic,

has said that the Yugoslav Constitutional Court should react to the recent

amendments to the Yugoslav constitution and protect the interests and

legitimate rights of the member states, in particular Montenegro. He

believes that the character of the federal state is being changed, i.e. its

federal character and the equality of the two republics are being abolished.

'I do not think that there are any obstacles for the Yugoslav Constitutional

Court to protect the broader interest, the legitimate right of Montenegro,

in the framework of the Yugoslav constitution, and to take a definitive

decision whereby it would state that the constitutional amendments to the

Yugoslav constitution are anti-constitutional and are not legally binding,'

Vujanovic said in today's edition of [Podgorica-based daily] 'Pobjeda'. He

concluded that in doing so the Yugoslav Constitutional Court would defend

the basic principles of federalism and would prevent the deepening of the

crisis in the country." (FoNet independent news agency-Podgorica, July 22)

SANDZAK LEADER: MILOSEVIC "PREPARING WARPATH"

***"Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is preparing the terrain for the

warpath on Montenegro, at the same time when the preparations for the local

and federal elections are taking place, President of the Sandzak Coalition

Rasim Ljajic said. In an interview with Onasa, he said that all elections

that have been held since Milosevic came to the power were followed either

by war or preparations for one...When asked what would happen with Sandzak

if Yugoslavia breaks apart, Ljajic said that 'Milosevic is still trying to

instrumentalise Sandzak and to use it as a means in his conflict with

Montenegro. This claim is confirmed by the fact that Yugoslav Prime Minister

Momir Bulatovic last year received a request for the autonomy of Sandzak,

sent by Sulejman Ugljanin's Bosniak National Council of Sandzak (BNVS) and

has allegedly forwarded this request to the Federal Assembly's Commission

for Constitutional Matters, which is to make the final decision,' Ljajic

said. He estimated this was just a 'mere deceit and an attempt to gain the

Bosniak community in Sandzak as an ally in the fight against Montenegro,

under the excuse that Sandzak will be divided if Montenegro separates from

Yugoslavia. We will not allow the use of Sandzak as a means in the conflict

between Serbia and Montenegro. We pledge for a wavering [sic] community of

two Yugoslav federal units with a minimum of joint competencies, foreseen by

the Montenegrin Platform, but we will not consider it a tragedy if

Montenegro chooses its independence. In that case, we must also accept the

border between Montenegro and Serbia,' Ljajic said." (Onasa news agency

Sarajevo, July 16)

III. GROUP OF EIGHT RESPONDS

GERMANY, ITALY WON'T RECOGNIZE FRY ELECTIONS

***"German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on Sunday attacked Yugoslav

President Slobodan Milosevic's constitutional changes, comparing them to

those that delivered power to Adolf Hitler...The Chancellor said he agreed

with Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato that the results of any election

to extend Milosevic's power should not be recognised. The German leader said

he believed he had the support of other Group of Eight members -- Britain,

Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States, although no

formal position was taken at the summit." (Agence France Presse, July 23)

GERMAN ADVISOR: WEST SHOULD DISREGARD FRY VOTE

*** "The German chancellor's foreign affairs advisor Michael Steiner on

Monday said the German government did not wish to give the Serbian

opposition any recommendations regarding possible participation in the

upcoming elections, reported radio B2-92 on its web site. The advisor to

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder stated that Germany was deeply concerned

over the situation created with the constitutional amendments and election

laws in Yugoslavia. Steiner said the international community could recognize

only those elections that fulfilled minimal democratic preconditions,

explaining that these minimal conditions included abiding by principles of a

legal state, respecting the basic and general constitutional and legal

principles, establishing a free role for the media and the effective

inspection of the elections. He said no recommendations had been given to

the Serbian opposition as regards participation in the elections, in either

a positive or a negative sense, adding that this must be the opposition's

independent decision. After Chancellor Schroeder's talks with Italian Prime

Minister Guiliano Amato at the G-8 summit in Okinawa, Steiner said the two

statesmen had said there could be no international recognition of any kind

of election results achieved on the basis of the recent constitutional

changes carried out by Milosevic." (V.I.P. Daily News Report, July 25) "On

Saturday, Michael Steiner, a foreign affairs adviser to German Chancellor

Gerhard Schroeder, said some heads of state attending the G-8 conference in

Japan remarked that the recent amendments to the Yugoslav constitution were

manipulative attempts to prolong Milosevic's rule. As a result, Western

leaders will disregard the vote." (Associated Press, July 24)

PUTIN DISTANCING FROM MILOSEVIC?

***"Yugoslavia could become a good test for Russia-West

relations...[Russia's President Vladimir Putin] did not start arguing with

his Western colleagues and distanced himself from Yugoslavia President

Slobodan Milosevic by demanding, together with the other G-8 members, that

democracy should be established in Yugoslavia. Putin's position on the

Serbian issue impressed the summit participants very much. The Russian

President did not play up the 'Slavic, Orthodox card' and did not refer to

Russia's 'special relations and historical ties' with Serbia, thus proving

himself a pragmatist on that issue." (Izvestia-Russian Press Digest, July

24) "[Montenegro's Foreign Minister Branko Lukovac:] I think that Russia was

split for a long time over its immediate, short-term interests - that it

leans on a crisis so as to become a more influential member of the

international community - and its strategic, long-term interests - that it

makes more room for its democratic development and a future for which the

support of the international community is necessary, as well as to be one of

the most influential players in the international community. Now it has been

accepted into the G7, which has now become the G-8. I think that in doing

so, it is accepting the obligation, alongside other major players in

international relations, to contribute to solving international problems. I

think that now we are dealing with a completely new and different Russian

attitude, and we can expect that this will be of great significance not just

for Russia itself, but also for the international community because it will

have the harmonized position of all its major players when resolving

international problems." (TV Crna Gora-Podgorica, July 23)

IV. SERBIAN OPPOSITION RESPONDS

OPPOSITION (MINUS SPO) AGREES TO FIELD JOINT CANDIDATE

***"After meeting for nearly five hours behind closed doors in Belgrade

Tuesday, opposition leaders said in a statement that they were ready to

participate in upcoming elections but put off a final decision until talks

with Montenegrin government officials set for the end of next week. In case

they decide to contest a presidential election, the democratic opposition

will have a joint candidate, the statement said. But Tuesday's meeting did

not discuss any specific names. The leader of the Democratic Party of

Serbia, Vojislav Kostunica, is one of the names mooted so far but Vuk

Draskovic, who heads the SPO, is not among them. Officials in the

Montenegrin capital, Podgorica, have let it be known repeatedly that they

are interested in no federal elections based on the recent changes to the

Yugoslav constitution, which they say has reduced the status of the smaller

republic to that of a province." (UPI, July 26) "At a meeting today, they

said the presence of foreign and domestic monitors was necessary in the

elections... Momcilo Perisic, chairman of the Movement for a Democratic

Serbia and host of the talks today, [said] the Serbian opposition's decision

to run in the federal parliamentary and presidential elections 'will not

directly depend on whether the ruling parties in Montenegro run in these

elections or not'. The opposition leaders also agreed that the united

opposition would run with one joint presidential candidate if the decision

is made to participate in the elections... Vladan Batic, the chairman of the

Christian Democratic Party of Serbia, said the united democratic opposition

in Serbia was 'not closing its doors' to the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO)

to run in the local elections. Democratic Party deputy chairman Zoran

Zivkovic said 'there will be no complications' if the SPO decided to join

the opposition's joint ticket." (BETA news agency, July 25)

DRASKOVIC: BOYCOTT ELECTIONS

***"The Serbian Renewal Movement will neither take part in this year's

elections nor support the Serbian opposition's joint candidate for Yugoslav

President, even if the Montenegrin government coalition backs the

nomination, party spokesman Ivan Kovacevic said today. Kovacevic added that

the Renewal Movement was tired of elections which would not be accepted by

either the international community or Montenegrin authorities." (Radio

B2-92, July 25) "Draskovic confirmed that 'the SPO will not take part in the

forthcoming elections, because it does not want to give legitimacy to

constitutional violence, the destruction of the state, a possible civil war

in Montenegro and Serbia and the certain loss of Kosovo, as well as to the

division of the entire Serbian national territory, including the [Bosnian]

Serb Republic. I think the regime in Belgrade has brought upon the Serbian

people a great deal of misfortune. The Serbian state and national interests

cannot be defended whilst Serbia is in conflict with the whole world - as

confirmed by the G-8 at the Okinawa summit, when the member countries

decided that the international community would not recognize the results of

the elections based on the forced revision of the federal constitution

against the will of Montenegro,' Draskovic said. This is quite

understandable, he said, since the destruction of the constitution and the

state cannot be considered as an internal issue. 'After 10 years of misery

in our country, caused by Milosevic together with [Serbian Deputy Prime

Minister] Vojislav Seselj and others, the world finally has sent out a

warning, which I think is timely, that there can be no more destruction,

that Yugoslavia must be preserved, and that any elections held against the

will of Montenegro will not be recognized,' Draskovic said. The SPO leader

said that 'the ball is now in the court of the Serbian opposition, which

must not give legitimacy to anything that is not legitimate and anything

that has been ill-thought-out from the inception'. Draskovic said he hoped

the rest of the opposition would abandon their original intention to take

part in the federal elections on present terms." (SRNA news

agency-Bijeljina, July 23)

***"Advisor to Serbian renewal Movement leader, Ognjen Pribicevic repeated

that SPO would make its final decision regarding taking part or not taking

part in the elections after the elections had been called. He also said that

current circumstances only confirmed the stance of SPO that it was not

possible to speak about fair and democratic elections today. According to

Pribicevic the law on the election of the president has been made in order

to decrease the risk of boycott. 'All these laws have been created to keep

Milosevic in power and not in the interests of the people or the country',

Pribicevic pointed out and added that SPO deputies would not take part in

the federal Parliament session while election laws were on the agenda. 'It

is obvious that the law has been tailor made for Milosevic. It is so easy to

elect a president and it is so difficult to remove him from power.' "(Blic

daily, July 24)

SPO BOYCOTT THREATENS VUK'S & OPPOSITION'S PROSPECTS

***"The united Serbian opposition's agreement to run in anticipated

elections on a joint ticket has suddenly stepped up developments on the

Serbian political scene towards resolution. By signing the agreement

regardless of unfavorable election conditions, the united democratic

opposition might have given itself the best chance in the past decade to

realize the will of the majority of voters who support changes, as indicated

by recent public opinion polls. The Serbian Renewal Movement has been left

isolated on the political scene, but seems determined to stick to its

decision to boycott the elections due to what it calls unfavorable election

conditions and 'state terror.' Aware that victory is only certain with the

party of Vuk Draskovic, the united opposition leaders are persistently

calling on the Movement to amend its decision and run on the opposition's

joint ticket. If he remains persistent in his decision to boycott the

elections, Draskovic could face accusations that he is collaborating with

Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, which certain opposition officials

already openly claim, and is in jeopardy of losing power in Belgrade and the

trust of some of his extremely active members. Therefore, pressure on

Draskovic to take part in the elections, will definitely increase in the

next few days, both from the side and possibly from his own party, all the

more so since the authorities in Montenegro, who seem very determined to

boycott the elections, could attempt together with the Serbian opposition

officials to find the means to defeat Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic

in elections." (BETA news agency, July 27)

PARTIES PRESSURE VUK TO JOIN THEM

***"On July 26, opposition parties in Serbia expressed satisfaction over the

agreement on running on a joint ticket, which was reached by their leaders

on July 25, and invited the Serbian Renewal Movement to join them. One of

the [Alliance for Change] leaders Vladan Batic stated that 'it would be

valuable' if the Renewal Movement joined the united opposition and that the

doors were open. 'This is not an ideological, political or program struggle,

it is the struggle for survival,' said Batic. Alliance senior official Zoran

Zivkovic said that the opposition was 'ready for the elections, regardless

of the stand of the Renewal Movement or the Montenegrin ruling parties.' The

Democratic Alternative criticized the Serbian Renewal Movement for opting to

boycott the elections and party leader Vuk Draskovic because he asked Greece

to help change election conditions. The party underlined that 'it has been

agreed that the elections are the only way out of the agony that the state

and the people are in' and that 'the battle for their salvation can not be

fought by anyone from the outside, especially in view of the fact that no

one has any influence on the Yugoslav president.' [Dan coalition]

Co-chairman Dragoljub Micunovic announced that the opposition's election

campaign will begin immediately and called on the people to vote in the

elections because, as he said, 'The opposition is not everything. Only the

people can decide their destiny by voting.' Micunovic invited the Renewal

Movement to give up its boycott, estimating that in that case the opposition

would win the local elections more easily. Vojvodina Coalition Chairman

Dragan Veselinov said that the opposition agreement had 'historic

significance' because he had expected it 'since 1990. There is no doubt that

the opposition is ready to run jointly in federal, presidential, Serbian and

provincial elections. For the first time now, a realistic chance has been

created for the regime of Slobodan Milosevic to be beaten,' said Veselinov.

Movement for Democratic Serbia: Senior official Dragan Vuksic stated that

'the possibility was greater' for the united opposition and the Serbian

Renewal Movement to completely split by the elections, than to bring stands

to accord. Vuksic labeled the Renewal Movement's decision not to run in

elections as 'bad' and as the one that 'helps' Yugoslav President Slobodan

Milosevic." (BETA news agency, July 27)

POLL: 43% AGAINST BOYCOTT, 32% FOR OPPOSITION

***"Most citizens of Serbia are of the opinion that the opposition should

not boycott the elections, according to a poll conducted by the Social

Studies Institute in Belgrade, carried out for the BETA news agency on the

territory of Serbia without Kosovo between July 11 and July 15. According to

the survey, which included 1,382 adults, 43% were against the boycott, 22%

in favor, while one third, or 35% were undecided. In federal elections, all

opposition parties would win 32% of votes, while the parties of the ruling

coalition would receive support of 24% of those who took part in the poll. A

total of 29% were undecided, while 26% would not vote. The survey shows that

the Socialist Party of Serbia and the Yugoslav Left could count on the

support of 20 percent of voters, the Serbian Radical Party on four percent,

the Alliance for Change opposition umbrella organization on 14 percent, the

Democratic Party of Serbia on six percent, and the Serbian Renewal movement

on five percent." (BETA news agency, July 27)

DJINDJIC: "ALL OF US SHOULD PARTICIPATE IN ELECTIONS"

***"A boycott of the up-coming elections would only please the FRY President

Slobodan Milosevic, who is doing all in his power to force both Montenegro

and the opposition in Serbia into boycotting the elections, judged the

President of the Democratic Party Zoran Djindjic on Wednesday...'Milosevic

would wish that no one take part in the elections but him, for he needs the

elections in order to be a legal president', stated Djindjic and added that

the next elections are 'to be or not to be' for the Serbian state and

people, but also for the opposition. 'All of us, the opposition in Serbia

and Montenegro, should participate in all the upcoming elections, the

federal ones too, and to win all of them', said Djindjic. One of the leaders

of the Alliance for Changes (SZP) Goran Svilanovic stated that the process

of preparing the Network for monitoring the elections is in progress, report

the Belgrade media on Thursday. At a press-conference held Wednesday,

Svilanovic stated that SZP will soon issue a booklet for the monitors of the

elections, followed by a 'detailed training process' of more than 20,000

monitors whose task will be to make certain there are no manipulations with

the ballot sheets." (V.I.P. Daily News Report, July 20)

SVILANOVIC: WE CAN WIN

*** "GSS president Goran Svilanovic has said that the democratic forces in

Serbia are 'capable' of winning the elections if minimal conditions for

supervision exist. 'If there exist minimal conditions for supervising the

elections, the democratic forces in Serbia, which means not only political

parties, but the entire non-governmental sector as well, the media and

primarily the citizens of this country are capable of changing the regime

and turning to their biggest job the building of a new, democratic Serbia',

Svilanovic said." (V.I.P. Daily News Report, July 25)

BELGRADE ANALYSTS: BOYCOTT "SENSELESS"

***"In statements made at the end of last week, before certain western

leaders, at the Group of Eight (G-8) summit, adopted the stand on not

recognizing any elections slated on the basis of the recent changes to the

federal Constitution, representatives of the opposition and independent

experts assessed that nothing could be achieved anymore with a possible

boycott of these elections by the opposition. Civic Alliance of Serbia (GSS)

deputy leader Dragor Hiber has said that the package of election laws which

the federal parliament is to adopt on Monday 'has made senseless the idea of

boycotting the elections'. Corroborating this stand, Hiber, otherwise a

legal expert, among other things pointed out that, following the

constitutional changes, 'hypothetically, even one vote is sufficient for the

FRY president to be elected'. An identical stand was set out on Friday by

Slobodanka Nedovic, director of the Center for Free Elections and Democracy

(CeSID), a Belgrade non-governmental organization for monitoring elections.

She too, according to Saturday's Blic, illustrated the senselessness of the

idea to boycott the elections with the same example of a minimal turnout

being sufficient for the FRY president to be elected. She added that

especially 'delicate' was the issue of organizing the elections in

Montenegro. 'It is one thing if political parties boycott elections, but a

completely different matter if this is done by a state', said Nedovic,

adding that there exists the possibility of elections being organized by

parties loyal to the Belgrade regime or for them to be held in Yugoslav Army

barracks on the territory of Montenegro. 'In any case, a conflict with

Montenegro is being provoked', she added." (V.I.P. Daily News Report, July

24)

OPPOSITION CONFUSION OVER G-8 STATEMENTS

***"Following the clarification of the G-8 stand on the FRY, Serbian

opposition parties on Monday assessed that the decision regarding

participation in the elections would be taken by the FRY

citizens...Democratic Party (DS) president Zoran Djindjic said the

opposition in Serbia accepted 'every advice' of the most developed countries

(G-8), but that it would take a decision on running in the elections on its

own. 'There is no reason for dismay. Most of the citizens are firmly in

favor of changes and this is a force that must win. We will take the final

decision on participating in the elections in accordance with the interests

and will of the citizens, since it is their interest that the democratic

opposition is representing', said Djindjic in a written statement regarding

the G-8 warning that the international community must not recognize the

results of elections which FRY President Slobodan Milosevic slates on the

basis of the constitutional changes. Advisor to the Serbian Renewal Movement

(SPO) president, Ognjen Pribicevic, said that confusion had been created

after the meeting in Japan due to obviously wrong interpretations by world

and domestic news agencies. 'What will happen in Serbia is our internal

affair and we ourselves will decide on it', Pribicevic said." (V.I.P. Daily

News Report, July 25) "[Vladan Batic, president, Christian Democratic Party

of Serbia said:] 'In view of the G-8 stand, if the opposition runs in the

elections and wins the international community will not recognize this

victory and the opposition is now faced with a big dilemma and the question

of what the alternative is.' " (V.I.P. Daily News Report, July 24)

***"The warning by G-8 leaders that Yugoslav elections would not be valid

under new rules imposed by President Slobodan Milosevic are forcing the

Serbian opposition to reconsider if it would participate, its leaders said

Sunday. 'It's a new factor and we must reconsider our decision on the

elections,' the head of the Democratic Center party Dragoljub Micunovic told

the Beta news agency. After the Okinawa summit at the weekend, G-8 declared

that recent constitutional changes in Yugoslavia discriminated against

Montenegro and precluded any international recognition of the election

results. Micunovic added that Serbian opposition leaders would discuss the

stand on the elections next Tuesday...But a U.S. diplomat in charge of

Yugoslavia at the Budapest embassy said G-8 'never called for the boycott

... and never suggested the boycott would be the correct course. The summit

declaration expresses concern ... over the motives behind the revision of

the Yugoslav constitution and its consequences', First Secretary Nicholas

Hill told the Belgrade radio Indeks." (Deutsche Presse Agentur, July 23)

DSS TO G-8: "DON'T PUT US IN MILOSEVIC'S BASKET"

***"When referring to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in their statement

from the Okinawa meeting, leaders of the world's eight leading industrial

countries eagerly employed understated and vague phrases, as if eager to add

to the existing confusion on this extremely complicated political scene of

ours. The inarticulate stances, blurred with irresponsible announcements by

the German chancellor's advisor, have not only aggravated the position of

those in Yugoslavia willing to carry out changes, but also confused the

electorate. Why on earth did the summiteers put their 'concern over the

motivation for and the possible consequences of the revision of the FRY

constitution,' a call for 'the government in Belgrade to refrain from any

action which could contribute to the further escalation of violence' and an

appeal to the opposition 'to contribute to the peaceful democratic

development of the FRY' in the same basket? As though the opposition has

ever supported anything else but democracy and peace! Yugoslavia is

stumbling under the burden of sanctions, struggling with the consequences of

the bombing and gasping for breath in the personal reign of a man whom an

unreasonable and illegal indictment by the war crimes tribunal forced to

stop at nothing to stay in power, while the G-8 is advising the opposition

to contribute to the peaceful and democratic development. But, is it

possible to contribute to something that does not exist?" (statement,

Democratic Party of Serbia-DSS, July 24)

MONTENGRIN OFFICIALS, SERB OPPOSITION IN LIMITED AGREEMENT

***"A joint declaration was signed in Sveti Stefan this afternoon after

several hours of talks between delegations of the [ruling Montenegrin]

Democratic Party of Socialists and People's Party on one side and leaders of

the Serbian democratic opposition...The talks in Sveti Stefan were prompted

by the illegal and illegitimate violation of the federal constitution. The

joint declaration of the Democratic Party of Socialists, People's Party and

leaders of Serbian opposition parties emphasizes a shared interest in peace,

democracy, economic progress and integration in the international community.

The sides were also in agreement regarding the need for equality of Serbia

and Montenegro as states. To achieve these goals - participants in the Sveti

Stefan talks have agreed - it is necessary to carry out radical democratic

changes of the political system in Serbia and rapid development of

Montenegro. The current state union of Montenegro and Serbia should be

changed. The text of the seven-point agreement was read out by deputy

chairman of the Democratic Party of Socialists [and Montenegrin Prime

Minister] Filip Vujanovic: [Vujanovic] One: The democratically-reorganized

state union of Montenegro and Serbia is in the mutual interest of citizens

of both Montenegro and Serbia. Two: The state union can serve the interests

of its citizens only if it is democratic, completely involved in the

processes of European integration and with institutions which are in line

with European standards. Three: The state union can function in a successful

and democratic way only with the full respect for the specific interests of

Montenegro and Serbia and with firm institutional guarantees for the level

of independence deemed necessary by both Serbia and Montenegro. Four: In

order to achieve such a democratic state union it is necessary to adopt

fresh constitutional solutions whose starting point would also be the

platform of the Montenegrin government [on the redefinition of relations

with Serbia]. Five: Democratic forces in Montenegro and Serbia most

vehemently condemn and resolutely reject constitutional changes adopted in

July 2000 in an unlawful and unconstitutional way. In this respect we

understand and acknowledge the viewpoints presented in the resolution of the

Montenegrin Assembly. Six: Democratic changes in Serbia, as well as the

consistent implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution 1244 on

Kosovo-Metohija, are conditions for Kosovo-Metohija to remain an integral

part of Serbia. Seven: Democratic forces in Montenegro and Serbia will work

together towards establishing a stable, successful and pro-European state

union of Montenegro and Serbia, irrespective of attempts by destructive

political groups to halt progress and to keep our country under isolation

for ever in order to preserve their personal privileges." (Radio

Montenegro-Podgorica, July 14)

*** " 'Our main common goal is to topple Milosevic and his regime,' said

Serbian opposition leader Zoran Djindjic of the Democratic Party. 'And we

are here to agree how to do this and how to reach basic principles of the

joint state of Serbia and Montenegro,' he told the meeting, expected to

adopt a joint statement. The ruling Montenegrin Democratic Party of

Socialists (DPS) had invited the fragmented Serbian opposition, struggling

to oust the Serbian strongman, to the meeting. DPS Vice-President and

Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic attended the talks." (Reuters,

July 14) "A member of the Montenegrin delegation [at talks with Serbian

opposition leaders in Sveti Stefan], People's Party chairman Dragan Soc,

told us he was extremely pleased with today's meeting: [Soc] The meeting was

planned in such a way as to be realistic. We did not tackle issues to which

we all knew we could not give a positive reply. What we discussed was

realistic. We did not want to insist on the issues about which we knew we

could not reach consent. We will just have to wait before we can solve

certain dilemmas." (Radio B2-92, July 14)

***"Zivko Sokolovacki, head of the Yugoslav Left floor group in the Federal

Republic of Yugoslavia FRY Assembly, said today that the conclusions reached

by the Montenegrin authorities and the Serbian opposition on the

non-recognition of the constitutional changes were made under 'foreign

patronage' and that they 'are neither helpful nor harmful'. Sokolovacki told

Beta that the conclusions endorsed by the representatives of the Serbian

opposition and the Montenegrin authorities in Sveti Stefan 'were most likely

drafted by their foreign mentors, who themselves could not say that the

constitutional changes were undemocratic; it is just that they do not like

them'." (BETA news agency, July 15)

V. ELECTION PROSPECTS

SEPTEMBER ELECTIONS?

***"The deadline for holding federal and local elections is the end of this

year or beginning of 2001. In recent days, however, there are rumors that

elections for both houses of the federal Parliament and the president of

Yugoslavia might be called as early as next week, after acceptance of

electoral laws at the federal level. This means that elections might be held

in the second half of September or beginning of October." (Blic daily, July

24)

POLLS: MILOSEVIC MOST TRUSTED POLITICIAN

***"Polls indicate that the regime parties have recently gained support,

whereas the opposition stagnates. Despite a high level of overall

discontent, Milosevic remains the most trusted leader...It [a European

Commission report] cites figures, without naming their source, showing that

24.2 percent trust Milosevic, followed by 8.4 percent who put their faith in

his opponent Vuk Draskovic and 6.2 percent who prefer Milosevic's

fire-breathing ally, Vojislav Seselj. Elections will have to be held before

the present term of office ends (this is before July 2001), but many expect

the regime to schedule them much earlier, possibly in September or October,

most likely simultaneously with the municipal and the federal parliament

elections...Since they are vital for Milosevic's political survival, the EU

should expect to see him 'do everything in his power' to ensure success,

including a crackdown on independent media, pressure on the opposition,

propaganda, manipulation and fraud. 'It is thus likely that Milosevic's

election gambit will prove successful...If he has doubts he will find

reasons not to hold them, if necessary by triggering an internal or external

crisis.' The EU analysis warns that Milosevic may use a Montenegrin boycott

of the federal elections 'to trigger a major crisis." (Reuters, July 19)

JOINT OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE?

***"Representatives of the DAN coalition [Democratic Alternative, Democratic

Center and New Democracy parties] suggested today that the opposition

candidate for the FRY president should be chosen at a so-called 'early

election', which would be organized by the united opposition and at which

citizens would decide on one of the proposed candidates. At a news

conference, [ND Chairman] Dusan Mihajlovic, co-chairman of the DAN

coalition, said that the proposal came from Democratic Center Chairman

Dragoljub Micunovic, and added that, for the time being, this was the 'best

way for the opposition to offer the strongest candidate' against current

President Slobodan Milosevic. He added that the opposition leaders had not

spoken about a joint candidate yet, but that these talks would certainly

take place 'during the talks on the overall election strategy'. The ND

chairman pointed out that he would not support the proposal that the

presidential candidate should be 'an independent person from outside the

sphere of politics', because the 'farce about independent intellectual

experts reminds one of the communist idea that dealing with politics is

something dirty'. Mihajlovic said that he hoped that the authorities in

Montenegro would also make the 'right decision' and take part in the

election, because a boycott is the wrong decision as well as a sign of

weakness and acceptance of an 'inferior position in comparison with the

person who feels like the loser'. He added that a united opposition is the

'only chance' for victory at the election and that 'no kind of electoral

fraud can help Milosevic'. The co-chairman of the DAN coalition said that

the dilemma about whether to take part in the election or not, because of it

not being 'free and fair', should not exist, since one should, as he put it,

use the opportunity to 'get rid of Milosevic in a democratic manner.' " (BBC

news service, July 20)

OTPOR FOR SINGLE OPPOSITION CANDIDATE

***" 'Otpor is starting a campaign for the upcoming elections with the goal

of bringing as many people out to vote as possible', announced Otpor

activist from Belgrade, Branko Ilic, for Free B2-92. 'We will try to

encourage all citizens of Serbia to participate in the elections and explain

to them who to vote against', said Ilic, adding that all Otpor actions so

far were an interlude for the above mentioned campaign... In his statement

for Free B2-92, he also said that Otpor will 'support any candidate chosen

to represent the united Serbian opposition and the ruling coalition of

Montenegro, whether it's Vojislav Kostunica, John Doe or somebody else...We

are indifferent who the person is, as long as he/she represents all the

above mentioned parties', concluded Ilic." (Otpor, July 24)

KOSTUNICA FOR PRESIDENT?

***"Only Democratic Party of Serbia [DSS, Serbian opposition party] leader

Vojislav Kostunica has the political credibility to win the presidency from

Slobodan Milosevic in an election, the executive director of the independent

economic think tank G17, Mladjan Dinkic, said yesterday. Dinkic told

Kragujevac Channel Nine TV that Kostunica was the only party leader in

Serbia who had not been discredited and that this would be enough to secure

his victory if the united opposition were to choose him as a candidate."

(Radio B2-92, July 19)

("A candidate backed by the unified opposition in Serbia could beat

President Slobodan Milosevic at elections, but it would have to be a new

personality, a leading independent economist and activist said Monday. 'It

would have to be a candidate who hasn't already lost ... It means Zoran

Djindjic and Vuk Draskovic are out of question', said Mladjan Dinkic, chief

of the Group of 17 economists, referring to two major opposition leaders,

heads of the Democratic Party and the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO). In his

words, it's not impossible that Draskovic would run in the elections,

despite claims that he would boycott them unless they were at least

reasonably fair. 'It would be bad for the opposition. He would draw a

certain number of voters, but not enough to win', Dinkic told the Kragujevac

television Channel 9. 'At the peak of his popularity, he amassed 800,000

votes and you need two million to topple Milosevic'. Citing 'latest polls',

Dinkic added that Milosevic 'can't get more than 30 percent' of the votes,

'regardless of (how he runs) the campaign'. 'But he's not the only one with

his back against the wall - the Serbian opposition is in a similar

situation', he said, warning that it increases the danger. 'When everybody

has nothing to lose, the threat of conflict rises', said Dinkic, who also

heads the non-governmental G17 Plus, an organization grouping, among others,

economists, intellectuals, artists and other prominent personalities

involved in humanitarian work and development. Dinkic criticized SPO's

announcements that it would boycott the elections, saying it can 'bring

nothing' in the situation when Milosevic, with his regime in full

international isolation, doesn't care if the elections would be recognized.

He said he believed that Milosevic would 'use the opposition's summer

siesta' to change more electoral rules and 'then he'll schedule them in a

very short term'...He showed an ambition to head the 'provisional

government' proposed by the Alliance for Change coalition during protests

last year, but was jostled out of the position by another economist, the

former central bank governor Dragoslav Avramovic." (Deutsche Presse-Agentur,

July 17)

***"Opposition party leaders have refused explicitly to say whether they

would support Vojislav Kostunica...reports Thursday's Glas Javnosti, citing

an opinion poll the newspaper conducted among opposition party leaders.

Kostunica has appeared as one of the possible candidates the opposition

could put up for the post of FRY president. Goran Svilanovic, president of

the Civic Alliance of Serbia (GSS), has said that one should not hurry to

guess who the opposition candidate would be, but he confirmed that he would

gladly support Kostunica as the opposition candidate. Democratic Center (DC)

President Dragoljub Micunovic said he considered Kostunica a good candidate,

but that the decision on this must be the result of serious talks within the

opposition, and not a public bid in the newspapers. The chairman of New

Democracy's (ND) executive board, Vojislav Andric, refrained from giving a

direct answer and said the ND would support the candidate the opposition

chooses by consensus. Ognjen Pribicevic, advisor to Serbian Renewal Movement

(SPO) leader Vuk Draskovic, said it was too early to speak about

presidential candidates since the opposition is yet to wage a battle for the

electoral conditions. Asked whether the SPO would support Kostunica,

Pribicevic said that there were several candidates in Serbia who could

adequately represent Serbia. Momcilo Perisic, leader of the Movement for

Democratic Serbia (PDS) said he did not wish to speak about individual

candidates since the opposition had still not taken a stand on whether or

not it would run in the elections at all." (V.I.P. Daily News Report, July

20)

STAMBOLIC FOR PRESIDENT?

***"Former Serbian president Ivan Stambolic could be nominated by the

Alliance for Change as a candidate for a key position in this year's

elections, Belgrade daily Blic writes today. Stambolic was recently a guest

of the Subotica Citizens' Council where he explained his views on the

current political situation, without ruling out the possibility that he

would make a political comeback. The Council declined to comment on the

information." (Radio B2-92, July 24)

SURPRISE CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT?

***"The united opposition's common candidate for the Yugoslav presidency

will come as a surprise to the government because it will not be anyone they

expect, Dragoljub Micunovic, the co-president of the DAN Coalition, said

today. The identity of the candidate, a man whom the whole opposition will

support, will be revealed next Tuesday, Micunovic told a press conference

today. The Serbian opposition will next week attempt to persuade

Montenegro's ruling parties to take part in the elections, said Micunovic,

adding that it was important for the Montenegrins and the Serbian Renewal

Movement to change their views in order for the opposition to win the

elections." (Radio B2-92, July 26)