Vremya Novosti

August 2, 2000

[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]

40 PERCENT OF RUSSIA'S POPULATION ARE FOR TALKS WITH CHECHNYA

By Yuri LEVADA, director of the All-Russia Public Opinion

Research Centre (VTsIOM)

The latest polls conducted by the All-Russia Public

Opinion Research Centre (VTsIOM) show that people have got

tired of the war which has been lasting for more than a year

now. This does not mean that they have a different opinion of

Chechens: most people still believe that all of them are

bandits and terrorists. At the same time, nearly half of the

respondents are in favour of peace negotiations now. The

inertia of public opinion is at last changing.

A year ago, when the militants entered Dagestan, wrath and

indignation were universal. These feelings were later

intensified by apartment blocks being blown up. Further

developments followed their own logic. First - wrath and pain,

and then the idea that those whom they thought to be bandits

should be done away with. This is why there were so many

supporters of the "retaliation action" - a new march on Grozny.

Now, it seems, a change in sentiments has occurred. First

of all, the type of military operations has sharply changed:

the times of storms, with cities being seized and banners

hoisted, are over. What is left is a strenuous, constant,

disturbing struggle against saboteurs, partisans and

terrorists. Another thing that has influenced public opinion is

our heavy casualties. Though military operations have

practically been completed, we continue to lose many officers

and men. More than 10,000 people have been killed or wounded.

This is according to the official data which cannot always be

trusted. The impression is that even the advocates of war and

mass media have changed their minds: military actions have

disappeared from the front pages of newspapers and are no

longer the main TV news. For this reason it seems that there

are no serious successes. Moreover, many people are afraid that

the war will go on for a long time to come.

And here is what we have in the end: recently, when we

asked people to sum up the results of the whole campaign, with

due account taken of all successes and losses, we discovered

that the majority of them (more than 50 percent of the total)

think that the campaign has been a failure.

Note that so far a change in the people's view of the

Chechen war has had no effect on their attitude to the

president. This is despite the fact that at first Putin's

prestige was based on his resolute actions in Chechnya. Later

these actions were not so successful and even became the

president's weak spot, but Putin's prestige is still high - as

a result of the people's inertia.

-------------------------------------------------------

Question: Considering all gains and losses of the

operation in Chechnya in the 1999-2000 period, should it be

considered...

Answer:

(1) as not too successful, as a complete

failure - 79%

(2) I don't know - 7%

(3) as very successful or rather

successful - 14%

----------------------------------------------------------

Question: What, do you think, we should do now: to

continue military operations in Chechnya, or start peace

negotiations?

Answer:

----------------------------------------

Nov. Feb. March April May June July

1999 2000

---------------------------------------------------------

To continue

military

operations 61 70 73 67 56 55 49

To start peace

negotiations 27 22 19 23 35 33 41

I don't know 12 8 8 10 9 12 10

--------------------------------------------------------

All-Russia Public Opinion Research Centre. A

representative express-poll was carried out among 1,600

Russians on July 20-25, 2000.