By Mayank Chhaya

[Photo] The Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama, center, inaugurating a seminar on "Ahimsa, Tolerance and Peaceful Coexistence" in New Delhi last month. The Dalai Lama is said to support the "middle" path wherein Tibet could attain "genuine self-rule" and could preserve its distinct identity. Left, fede ral minister Jagdish Tytler. Others in the photo were not identified. (Photo: PTI)

[Photo] Tempa Tsering, secretary, information and internal relations, Tibetan government in exile. According to information compiled by the Tibetan government in exile, 1.2 million Tibetans have been "wiped out" in the last 40 years and only 13 of 6,254 monasteries have survived. (Photo: Mayank Chhaya)

[Photo] A tableau depicting Tibetan new year celebrations. For the 150,000 Tibetan exiles in India, one of the biggest challenges is said to be that of preserving their traditions and culture. (Photo: Mayank Chhaya)

McLeod Ganj, Himachal Pradesh --

Tetsen Dolkar Oshoe's eyes become moist and wistful as she talks about Tibet, as if she left it only yesterday. It was in 1959 when she, with thousands of others, including their spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, fled to escape oppressive Chinese rule and seek refuge in India. Now running a small store of Tibetan clothes and artifacts in this hillside hamlet, Oshoe says: "It has been 37 years since I left home. But home has still not left me. I am as hopeful now as I was then."

About 130,000 Tibetans in India have created a sanctuary of hope in this fabulously situated Himalayan town. Although McLeod Ganj and Dharamsala, which is 10 miles downhill from here, account for less than 10 percent of the Tibetan refugee population in India, they have been at the center of the Dalai Lama's campaign for "genuine self-rule" for Tibet, if not an altogether free Tibet. Dharamsala is also the seat of the Tibetan government in exile.

Forty-six years after China invaded Tibet and began what Tibetans call "the systematic decimation of their identity as a nation and a people" the Dalai Lama believes that the force of democracy in China will force a resolution of the issue. But he concedes that China has currently adopted a "harsh attitude," as evident in the imposition of the Panchen Lama, the second most powerful Tibetan spiritual leader.

Although the exiled Tibetans do not seem any closer to accomplishing what they set out to do nearly 40 years ago, it is widely recognized that Tibet has become an international issue that China can ignore at its peril.

Some analysts even say that Tibet has come in handy for China's Communist leadership to speed the pace of political change in China in the last 15 years.

"It is the Tibetan factor that has brought about changes in China, especially after Deng Xiao Ping came to power in 1978," P. Stobdan, a researcher at the New Delhi-based Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses, told India Abroad.

He feels that Deng has used Tibet "to get rid of the hardliners," and adds, "It is often not recognized that Tibet has been much more of a change agent for China than Taiwan, despite the latter's $80 billion of foreign exchange reserves," he told India Abroad.

The Tibet issue has all the elements of an irresistible historical drama spread over 12 centuries, during which fierce Mongol warriors struck up a curious relationship with mystical lamas, or teachers of Buddhism, followed by an ever-growing clash between the great Chinese dynasties and the Buddhist clergy, and finally a ruthless invasion by a cold, calculating Communist regime.

From this millenium-long conflict has emerged one of the most followed religious-political movements that has attracted, among others, international celebrities such as the Hollywood star Richard Gere.

It is in keeping with the inherent drama in the Tibetan situation that two 6-year-old boys are now at the cutting edge of the conflict between Communist China and the Buddhist Dalai Lama.

Last May, the Dalai Lama recognized one of the boys, Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, as the reincarnation of the 10th Panchen Lama, Lobsang Trinley Lhundrup Choekyi Gyaltsen, who died in January 1989. The choice was made after an elaborate search by a team of prescient monks, part of which was to gaze into the Lhamolhatso, a sacred lake near Lhasa, Tibet's capital. They claimed to have seen signs of where the possible reincarnate could be found, finally choosing Nyima.

Sensing the serious political implications in China of having one chosen by the exiled Dalai Lama to take over a powerful spiritual position, Beijing made its move last November, producing another 6-year-old, Gyaincain Norbu.

Notwithstanding the glaring contradiction of an atheistic government's indulging in something religious, Beijing has persisted with its choice. The Dalai Lama's choice, in the meantime, has been kept under house arrest at an undisclosed location.

Until the Panchen Lama conflict arose, it had appeared that China's growing economic prosperity could unleash its people's democratic instincts and eventually resolve the Tibet question. But in the last year the situation has been virtually deadlocked.

New refugees crossing into India speak of an intensified Chinese campaign in Tibet. After the Dalai Lama was chosen for the 1989 Nobel Peace Prize, many people believed that might have a salutary effect on China. But it only aggravated the situation.

According to information compiled by the Tibetan government in exile, 1.2 million Tibetans have been "wiped out" through "repressive measures" in the last 40 years. Only 13 of 6,254 monasteries survive, it says.

With China toughening its position, the Dalai Lama has been under pressure from younger Tibetans to match Beijing's pugnacity. Although the 61-year-old spiritual leader recognizes that such a body of opinion exists, he says he has to take "all factors" into account. He espouses the "middle" path, whereby Tibet would have "genuine self-rule" under which it could preserve its distinct identity. Many people see this stand as a "comedown" from his early positions.

"The Dalai Lama is a pragmatist and sees what is achievable," says an aide. "The Chinese are bound to understand that what his holiness offers is the wisest way out and it would not be surprising if they relented."

But analysts such as Stobdan believe that Tibet's prospects are not very bright. A senior source intimately involved in Tibetan affairs goes so far as to say:

"Tibet could be a country, but for that (to become a country) it has to be dynamic. It ceased being dynamic long ago. To say that we should carry on with lamaism because it worked in the 15th century does not make sense, and in fact goes against Tibet's case."

The Dalai Lama has recognized the weakness in continuing with the lamaist orthodoxy, and since 1963 has been instrumental in creating a democratic structure in his headquarters. In May 1990 he introduced radical reforms that led to an impressive dismantling of his control over government. He dissolved the Kashag, the Tibetan cabinet, and 10th parliament and called new elections.

In 1992 he said that when Tibet became independent, the immediate task of an interim government would be to frame a democratic constitution under which he would transfer all his historical and political authority to a president.

The Tibetan parliament in exile has 46 members who were elected recently. Stobdan says he was surprised that a democratic party, named the National Democratic Party, was "actually set up this time."

Tempa Tsering, secretary of information and international relations for the government in exile, says: "We recognize that we have to change according to the times. His holiness has been a symbol of that change.

" Once Tibet becomes a reality, we will be able to create a democratic system that is completely equitable and builds into it the philosophical concepts of Buddhism. We don't see any contradiction between the two."

The exiled leadership has frequently expressed gratitude for India's support since 1959. The Dalai Lama attributes the community's success to what India has done in providing shelter, education, health care and general freedom to pursue cultural and religious goals.

But he and many others believe that India often underestimates the exiles' strengths in dealing with China over Tibet. The Dalai Lama thinks India has been "a little bit overcautious" and could speak out more on the human rights issues in China.

At the same time, he thinks that given the circumstances, India's Tibet policy has been "very right and appropriate."

India's role in resolving the issue has been subtle, more by example than by an aggressive espousal of its cause on the political level. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee expresses what has been the consistent Indian position since the days of Nehru, the first Prime Minister:

"We think Tibet is an integral part of China and would not like to interfere. The Dalai Lama is a greatly respected spiritual leader in India as well."

But beyond this official comment, government sources maintain: "India need not shout from the rooftop about Tibet. There is a Tibetan government in exile on our soil. While we have never encouraged them to wage a political war against China from here, we recognize that they need help."

During the early days of Indian independence, the "buffer state" theory of the 18th century seemed valid. It was important for India to have a buffer in Tibet against China, especially because the two giant Asian neighbors were always uncomfortable about each other.

Of a border of 2,500 miles the two share, 1,570 miles are along Tibet. This strategic geographical fact is considered crucial even now by many Tibetans here.

"If Tibet were an independent nation, India would not need men with batons to guard the border; imagine how much you would save on your defense budget," says a Tibetan supporter of that school of thought.

However, other defense analysts say such thinking is outdated in this age of intercontinental ballistic missiles. A top defense source comments, "Technology has made the buffer state theory irrelevant. That is the prevalent thinking in the Indian government."

India and China have looked beyond their 1962 war and are getting on with more fruitful relations. Although China still controls a large part of Indian territory it captured during the war, the leaderships on both sides have chosen to address areas of agreement and seek progress first, rather than focus on disagreement and get bogged down.

As part of that plan, they have withdrawn troops from the "eyeball to eyeball" border positions maintained for over 30 years. Three checkpoints have been opened to facilitate border trade.

It is clear to the exiled leadership that India will not let Tibet come in the way of normalizing ties with China. Indicative of this is the growing trade between the two.

In 1995, for the second year running, India overtook Pakistan in bilateral trade with China, with figures touching $1.162 billion. India is now China's largest South Asian trading partner.

While many Tibetans find India's position on Tibet "unacceptable," they also realize that India is their best friend. On the other hand, India understands the symbolic effect of having the Tibetan government in exile on its soil while dealing with China.

New Delhi does not want to overplay its Tibet card. "The fact that we hold it is enough," says a senior government source.

The exiled Tibetans' hopes have been raised during the last five years, after the dramatic events in East Europe and the Soviet Union. More currently the Dalai Lama and others have viewed the elections in Taiwan as a possible turning point for the Tibet issue.

They are counting on China's leadership to become more flexible. But until such time, they cannot do much better than hope and keep up their campaign.