Published by: World Tibet Network News, Monday, Apr 29, 1996

The Globe and Mail

Editorial April 29, 1996

ON Friday, in Shanghai, after a long day of negotiating and toasting and handshaking, the presidents of China, Russia and three former Soviet republics gathered around a banquet table and "sang songs to familiar melodies." The Xinhua news agency did not identify the tunes (Strangers in the Night? Yesterday? The Internationale?) but some Asia watchers found the music less than pleasing. As Russia and China, in particular, draw closer together, there are fears that the two former adversaries will forge a new "axis" that is hostile to the interests of the West.

Those fears are baseless.

It is certainly true that China and Russia are enjoying a period of remarkable warmth. Presidents Boris Yeltsin of Russia and Jiang Zemin of China covered each other with compliments during Mr. Yeltsin's visit to China last week. Mr. Mr. Yeltsin backed China's view that Taiwan and Tibet are part of its sovereign territory. Mr. Jiang said that China supported Russia in its opposition to the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and its contention that the war in Chechnya is a domestic matter. Mr. Yeltsin politely drew a line between his Communist hosts and the Russian Communists he will confront in this June's presidential election. "Our Communists are fanatics, local Communists are pragmatists," he said.

Between the champagne toasts and bear hugs, the two got a lot of business done too. Along with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, they reached an oil-and-gas deal, talked trade and signed a security pact designed to reduce tension along their common border. A pact to remove the last remaining border disputes is almost complete.

But the new friendship is unlikely to bloom into an all-out strategic alliance. Yes, both sides like having a counter to the United States. China in particular likes to show it has other friends at a time when the United States, worried about Chinese belligerence, is drawing closer to Japan. But both rely far more heavily on the West for trade than they do on each other, and neither wants to alienate the Western powers altogether.

Besides, the animosity between the two is too fresh. After the break between the Soviet Union and China in the 1950s, the two massed millions of troops on the border and almost went to war several times.

Neither wants to go back to those days. China would like Russia to remain stable and not to attempt to reclaim its empire. For that reason it's hoping the Russian Communists will lose in June. Russia would like China to keep its tentacles out of Russia's sparsely populated Far East. Both governments would like to be good neighbours, trading with each other, selling each other arms and lending each other occasional diplomatic support. But, at least for now, that's as far as it will go.