from: Multiple recipients of list TSG-L

The Guardian - London

16 July 1996

THE DALAI LAMA'S visit to England is different this time, and not just because he will he picketed by a rival Buddhist sect. Though the Tibetan problem has long seemed remote and unchanging, it is moving into an un-settled phase which the outside world will find harder to ignore. China has tightened its grip, sounding a flew note of alarm about "splittist" activities. Western governments cannot decide how far to condone Chinese rule, sending mixed signals to Beijing. And in the Tibetan capital, where violence so far has been entirely inflicted by the Chinese army, there have been the first, small bombs.

The origins in this country of the Dorje Shugden sect now lobbying aggressively against the Dalal Lama are something of a mystery. Shugden is a typical wrathful deity of a type reflect-ing the early influence of "Bon" shamanism in Tibet and it has played a divisive role before at times of crisis. A few years ago, the Dalai Lama warned that the spread of Buddhism in the West had led to "a tendency towards sectarianism" which was "Poison" for the religion. It is poisoning the atmo-sphere now in ways which can only gratify the Chinese. Whatever differ-ences there may be between this sect and the main stream of loyal worship, it is preposterous for a bunch of foreign devotees to denounce a spiritual leader revered often at the cost of persecution by nearly all Tibetans in Tibet.

Beijing's decision to ban portraits of the Dalai Lama, generally tolerated in monasteries and the marketplace, illustrates both the strength of his appeal and a deep sense of Chinese insecurity. It follows Beijing's heavy-handed intervention last year to impose its own - choice of a new Panchen Lama. China has also begun to talk of "sabotage and - assassination by the (Tibetan) splittists". China is going through an ultra-nationalist phase with Hong Kong and Taiwan high on the patriotic agenda. Growing militancy among Muslim Ui-ghurs in the neighbouring region of Xinjiang also heightens Beijing's unease. The dogmatism of Tibetan officials who were never purged after the Cultural Revolution is another factor. But Tibetans too are becoming more militant: China may regret its rejection of the Dalai Lama's more moderate agenda for real autonomy.

Actions such as the bomb in March outside the communist party headquarters in Lhasa would have been unthink-able before. Chinese brutality in Ganden and other monasteries will, on past experience, not deter more calls for independence. A new cycle of resistance and repression will seriously embarrass Western governments which, led by the US, are drifting into a policy of "constructive engagement." Though the Hong Kong handover still lies ahead, Britain is already working for a new trading relationship. Tiananmen Square is far behind: Washington seeks a US-China summit next year. But the emotive issue of Tibet could yet upset these equations.