The Wall Street Journal, August 21, 1996

China made a friend this week when Niger agreed to diplomatic ties with Beijing, ditching Taiwan and forfeiting its aid and assistance. The new concord with Niger stands out as about the only friendly thing China has done or said this summer on the foreign policy front. In a few short weeks, Denmark, Germany, the U.K., Australia, Vietnam, Japan, the U.S. and Taiwan, among others, have all been subjected to Beijing's insults, accusations, rebukes or threats.

Denmark received a verbal whipping because its parliament dared debate the topic of Tibet. Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer heads for Beijing this week to face a huge list of complaints, including the Dalai Lama's visit, Australia's decision to cut aid to China, its sending of a trade delegation with a minister to Taiwan, and Australia's recent security pact with the U.S.

Not all of the targets are taking China's abuse lying down; and some are actually fighting back. A Japanese newspaper reported this week that Tokyo is considering reshaping and restructuring its aid approach to China. The goal would be a new MFN-style yearly review system that lets Japan calibrate its grants and other aid more finely, depending on China's political behavior, human rights record and such. Friends of Beijing have already responded with a shrillness bordering on hysteria to the newspaper report, warning Japan not to make the mistake of linking economic aid to Chinese behavior.

Objective observers doubt that Tokyo is ready to take such a step yet. But the fact that it is looking for sticks indicates that Beijing may face more opposition than its is used to the next time it clutters up the Taiwan Strait with missiles, or otherwise taunts and provokes Japan.

Recent developments in Taiwan suggest that President Lee Teng-hui is also fed up; perhaps with making peace overtures to a China that can never be satisfied. Last week, he ordered a formal review of Taiwanese business in the mainland, telling the National Assembly that Taiwan's estimated $25 billion worth of investments there are depriving Taiwan of the capital it needs for its own economic development. The official worry now in Taipei is that if the island's economy becomes too deeply involved with the mainland's, this will constrict Taiwan's room and options for political maneuver.

Until now, at least, the U.S. has been taking the brunt of China's summer criticism, in books alleging an American conspiracy to deny China superpower status, in speeches by PLA generals to the same effect, and in gleeful accounts in official publications of how China is trading with Iran and hobnobbing with the Iraqis. While Business Weekly crowed about a Chinese trade mission in Baghdad, Outlook magazine cheered the Europeans for ignoring U.S. sanctions against Teheran.

Washington's response so far may be summed up in the words of Secretary of State Warren Christopher, who assures us that the Clinton administration is "strongly encouraging china not to participate in nuclear deals with Iran." Despite this approach, or perhaps because of it, Indonesia is planning a big military exercise in the South China Sea next month. Some 10,000 armed forces personnel will participate in what analysts call a show of determination aimed directly at Beijing.

Indonesian Institute of Sciences analyst Dewi Fortuna Anwar summed up the state of play succinctly: "China respects strength. If they see you as being weak, they'll eat you alive."