Published by World Tibet Network News - Monday, November 25, 1996

Arm-wrestling Asian giants shake on an uneasy relationship

by Tony Lawrence

NEW DELHI, Nov 25 (AFP) - Asian giants China and India, arm-wrestling rivals for decades, will revert to a simple handshake here Thursday when Chinese President Jiang Zemin pays a historic visit to his neighbour.

However, behind the smiles, say Indian commentators, there lies a continuing unease as the world's two most populated nations learn to live together after decades of mutual mistrust.

Commodore Uday Bhaskar, assistant director of the Institute of Defence Studies and Anaylysis (IDSA) here, said the visit, the first to India by a Chinese president, was highly significant.

But, despite the "stabilising" relationship between the two countries, Bhaskar did not expect breakthroughs from Jiang's meetings with Indian President Shankar Dayal Sharma and Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda.

"China and India are two big countries living rather uncomfortably together, for political, military and strategic reasons," Bhaskar said.

"As two major neighbouring nations, it's very unlikely they will evolve a close relationship like the United States and Canada.

"In a strategic sense, I think it's unlikely there can be any other formulation between them."

Bhaskar noted the "chequered relationship" of the two countries, confirmed by a bitter border war in 1962, had begun to improve after the 1988 landmark visit to China by then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, followed by a 1993 "peace and tranquility" agreement.

But he argued that China, with a population of 1.2 billion, and India with 950 million, were poles apart in their political philosophies while China's military superpower status, as well as its links with Pakistan, made warmer ties difficult.

"There are sharp differences in the political systems China is a totalitarian state and a nuclear state," he said.

"India is not. Also, China has a different military profile. They're a major nuclear power. And having one living on your border is very uncomfortable."

Kalim Bahadur, head of central Asian studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, said China's nuclear capability lay behind India's refusal to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty at the United Nations in September.

"They're next door and the fact they have nuclear bombs all around us is one of the reasons India did not sign," he said.

"The earlier hostility between China and India is no longer there and Jiang Zemin's visit, even if I don't see any important decisions to be taken, is a positive step that will help improve the relationship.

"But there will always be political and economic reasons for friction. China has demands to make over Tibet. India is concerned about Beijing's links with Pakistan and claims China is still holding border territory belonging to India."

The Pakistan issue China supplies India's neighbour with weapons is unlikely to go away.

Bhaskar argues China and Pakistan will want to retain close ties. "It makes strategic sense for both, in that it helps to keep India in check. There is enormous strategic logic to the relationship," he said, adding that India would just have to get used to the Chinese-Pakistan alliance.

"For armaments, India knows that China will probably limit itself merely to the role of supplier. Generally, the Chinese do not fight other people's battles."

Diplomats, however, said bilateral trade figures indicate a mutual desire of the two neighbours to strengthen business relations.

The positive sign of improved relations with India is the growth of two-way trade which grew from 200 million dollars in 1991 to 1.2 billion dollars last year, the Times of India quoted a Chinese diplomat as saying.