The Indian Express, November 29, 1996

(Anil K. Jha): In his latest book on China, Keneth Liberthal writes: "While uncertainties abound, it appears that on balance, China in the late 1990's will grow more open, decentralised, corrupt, regionally and socially diverse, militarily powerful and socially tempestuous."

This prognosis is definitely on test in China today. In fact, it is a state in transition which has wide ramifications for both China and the outside world, including India. Thus, to understand the ' Chinese enigma' would be the first step towards gearing up ourselves for a better Sino-Indian dialogue. It is precisely the lack of understanding on this front which, to a large extent, is responsible for mutual distrust and suspicion for all these years.

Take the case of openness. The economic freedom has injected a lifeblood of openness among the Chinese today. It is not spans the whole range of activities affecting people's lives. In the old China, it was not so much the state but the employer who controlled people's lives.

This openness, no doubt, is visible everywhere. The economic reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping in December 19978 were not intended at all to create this sort of openness or individuality. The original reforms were based on the 'household ' responsibility system. It was rather intended to strike a balance between the rigidity of a command economy and the chaos of a command economy and the chaos of a free market.

There is no doubt that the reforms carried out from 1978 to 1989 by paramount leader Deng Xiaoping and his disciples Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang had a moderating influence on the harsh authoritarianism and over-assertiveness of the Maoist Legacy. Deng actually did manage an enormous confidence trick, using the fruits of prosperity to buy off those opposed to abandoning Marxism. Though, on the surface, all augured well as many intellectuals, reformers, businessmen were led into the belief that China is slowly moving along a democratic path. An equal number still reserved their opinion on this. Nevertheless, Deng did play the gamble of tying up the legitimacy of his regime to its ability to produce prosperity.

A vibrant economy is not without its unintended complications. Pressures in Chinese society today are enormously varied and complex. There are innumerable references made, both within and outside China, about China's experience during the Twenties to project a similar fate for China. Such advocates take recourse to history. After the founder of the Republic of China, Sun Yat-Sen, failed to established rule over the entire country, a situation developed when region-based warlords. For this reason, Chiang Kai-Shek was able to swiftly oust these warlords from power again at the beginning of the Thirties.

It would be unfair to draw a similarity between the two situation and belittle today's China. As a matter of fact, there is no provincial governor today who wants to free himself from the other provinces or from the central government. It is purely the economic agenda which addresses any 'conflict Zone'. At the most, one could talk in terms of an economic regionalism.

Like India, China too is grappling with immediate problems such as corruption, regional disparity, inflation, social disorder, nepotism, provincial resistance to Central control, rural discontent, urban unemployment etc. An important point of convergence would be to understand each other completely in order to fashion a new era of mutual trust and cooperation. The "conflict zone" between the two would be reduced to a large extent if both the parties understand each other's civilizational and social matrix.

Under Jiang Zemin, China and its historical march into 21st century is faced with many challenges, both on the domestic and international fronts. Though the Chinese leadership has repeatedly claimed that the political transition from Deng to Jiang is complete, it still remains to be seen how effectively this first non-Long March generation handles the Chinese affairs. Jiang's step towards the Sino-Indian deadlylock is definitely welcome, but let us not forget that China's military is likely to put him and his management of security issues and foreign affairs to test if it is found too soft.

(The writer is a lecturer at the Delhi University)