Far Eastern Economic Review - January 30, 1997

By Julian Baum in Taipei

Prepare for some verbal saber-rattling across the Taiwan Strait: The Dalai Lama is coming to Taipei, as early as March. The Tibetan leader's first-ever visit to the island, though a private one, will be a public-relations bonanza for Tibet and Taiwan. But it will certainly provoke China, especially if he meets with President Lee Teng-hui or accepts a standing invitation to speak to the legislature.

That, however, is no concern to Taiwan's Buddhists and pro-independence activists, who have worked hard over the years to make the visit a reality. They have already discounted China's protests and to some extent may even welcome them. "The political leaders don't care about the reaction from Beijing," says a former government official who negotiated with the Dalai Lama's Chinese educated brother, Gyalo Thondup, to make arrangements. "Some are even looking to irritate China."

This visit by one of Beijing's most prominent adversaries illustrates how profoundly -Taiwan's foreign policy has changed in recent years. Taipei has managed to put aside the knotty ideological issues which once foreclosed options and forced many to choose sides in the conflicting claims of the rival Chinese governments.

To be sure, conservative Kuomintang officials still consider the Dalal Lama as does Beijing a symbol of resistance to Chinese rule. Some KMT officials still fear he will encourage Taiwan's independence advocates to make common cause with radical Tibetan independence groups.

But the conservatives are in the minority now. For the people making policy under Lee's leadership, the Dalai Lama's presence would confirm that the country observes human rights and deserves to be counted in the international mainstream. He will be welcomed only as a religious leader, said Chang King-yuh, chairman of the Mainland Affairs Commission, after a cabinet-appointed committee cleared the trip in early January. Because the visit will be private, it will have no impact on official policy towards China's unification, he said.

The Dalai Lama himself explained his intentions in an interview with the Taipei-based United Daily News: "My trip to Taiwan shows that we are never against the Chinese. What we are against is the Chinese communist government, not the Chinese people or Chinese culture." He added that the future of Taiwan should be determined by its people: "If both sides agree to unify, that's okay, but China should not bring this about with military force and sacrifice the democracy and freedom the people now possess."

As for Tibet, if China can become free and democratic, the Dalai Lama said, he could accept the Himalayan kingdom becoming part of a larger nation with China. But he baffled some Taiwan observers by endorsing a view that the KMT earlier insisted upon but no longer requires of him. "My trip to Taiwan will prove that I give up the position of Tibetan independence because Taiwan recognizes that Tibet is part of China," he said.

Given Taiwan's diplomatic rivalry with Beijing, the visit comes at a critical time. China recently used its veto power in the United Nations to force Guatemala, which maintains formal relations with Taipei, to open talks. Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen and Taiwan's John Chang are on extended visits to Africa in a competition for economic assistance to prevent more governments from switching sides.

Vice-President Lien Chan is also trying to wean Taiwan's trading partners away, from Beijing's definition of "one China. Returning from Central America and Europe, Lien described China's behaviour in blocking Taiwan's diplomatic relations as a type of "international blackmail." He advised Beijing to follow its own advice and stop interfering in the affairs of other governments.