by Lorien Holland

BEIJING, Feb 18 (AFP) - Chinese President Jiang Zemin appears set to adopt the mantle of ailing patriarch Deng Xiaoping, but history has shown that there are no long-term guarantees in Chinese politics.

Deng himself warned in 1992: "As long as we, the older generation, are still around, the hostile forces know that change cannot happen."

"But who can guarantee this once we old people pass away?"

His warning came on his last public trip aimed at pushing the Jiang administration into promoting economic reforms.

With Deng, 92, now lurching from one medical crisis to another, rumours have abounded that his death appears only a question of time.

Jiang must be ready to grab the mantle of supreme control over China's 1.2 billion people, who are in the midst of a fundamental economic and social revolution.

But the question on the lips of China watchers is what will Jiang do and can he manage to keep control over the vast nation.

"When Jiang was promoted in the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, he was a little fish in a sea full of sharks," said a long-term western diplomat in Beijing.

"But he has outdone our worst predictions and appears to be in a position of strength. The question is, does he have any of his own ideas about the way to go?" he added.

Jiang's seeming lack of vision first surfaced in 1992 when Deng came out of retirement to urge economic growth and encourage Jiang's government to move on from 1989.

A long silence on major policy issues ensued, punctuated only with a reunification plan with Taiwan which went down like a lead balloon and a "Spiritual Civilisation campaign" scalped from late Party Chairman Mao Zedong.

"I don't think we have seen a successful Jiang initiative yet," said a second diplomat.

"Maybe he is waiting for Deng's death to blow a wind of political change, but maybe he has no other cards to play," she added.

Jiang may hold the nation's top three positions, but the last man to do that was Mao's successor Hua Guofeng who was promptly ousted by Deng and flung into the political wilderness.

The head of China's parliament and former chief of the internal security apparatus, Qiao Shi, could emerge from the wings in a Deng-like coup, as could current premier Li Peng.

But the general consensus appears to be that no one man will be able to grab enough power and the main problem facing the Communist Party is to find the path which will keep it in power and stop China splitting up.

With great economic divides from east to west and racial problems in northwestern Xinjiang and neighbouring Tibet already simmering, the Communist Party already has his hands full.

Rising crime, regional independence and corruption also threaten trouble ahead.

"The death of Deng Xiaoping may not immediately plunge the People's Republic of China into either crisis or radical transformation," said Gerald Segal and David Goodman, in their recent publication "China without Deng."

"But if the Chinese Communist Party does not successfully manage the transition it has set in motion, the situation in general may easily become ungovernable," they added.