by Hsin-hsin Yang

TAIPEI, Feb 21 (AFP) - Taiwan is monitoring any changes in Beijing's power structure after the death of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping and ahead of China's 15th party congress due to set out the new political hierarchy, analysts said Friday.

Relations between the two, always tense, were further strained when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui visited the United States in June 1995 in a move seen in Beijing as promoting the nationalist island's independence.

The congress scheduled for the autumn is expected to see Chinese President Jiang Zemin consolidate the collective leadership he heads in Beijing.

Only then will cross-strait ties be able to expand in stability without military threats from mainland hardliners, analysts and authorities here said.

Huang Yao-yu, mainland operations director of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), said Beijing would not change its policy towards the island "in a short time as long as there are no major external factors."

The transition of power to Jiang has been relatively smooth since Deng decided to take a backseat in 1990, but the patriarch's death on Wednesday may lead to some changes, Huang said.

Jiang is due to follow the Taiwan policy laid down by Deng to achieve peaceful reunification along the lines of the "one country, two systems" which will be applied to Hong Kong after the July 1 handover.

But this has been rejected by Taiwan which insists on its sovereignty and has pledged to seek reunification under freedom and democracy.

"There has been a deep suspicion in Beijing that our leaders are promoting independence in the disguise of democratization," said mainland affairs researcher Sung Kuo-sheng from the National Chengchi University Institute of International Relations.

"It will be a major task for Taipei to win trust from Beijing's third-generation leaders centered on Jiang, especially younger ones who have less historic burden, to seek a fresh starting point for negotiations on issues mutually beneficial," Sung said.

"It is in the interest of cross-strait development if the collective leadership confirms its grip on power at the congress," said National Taiwan University political science professor Chang Lin-cheng.

China has considered Taiwan a breakaway province since it drove nationalist forces here in the 1949 civil war, and has vowed to invade the island if it tries to declare independence.

After Lee's visit to the United States, China launched a series of highly-provocative military manoeuvres off Taiwan that led the United States to send two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Straits.

While never renouncing the use of force against the island, Deng always preached patience, insisting reunification was inevitable but should not be rushed.

"With Deng dead, the (Chinese) goverment's Taiwan policy is open to reinterpretation, and there are definitely some in the leadership who feel they could use the issue for personal gain," said one Asian diplomat.

A KMT evaluation report said a solution to the Taiwan issue might become more pressing amid challenges from conservatives and younger hardline leaders who have less patience dealing with the nationalist island.

Topics such as exchanges of visits by top leaders, signing of a peace pact and opening direct links across the Taiwan Strait might be put on the congress agenda, it said.

Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui has dismissed any concerns triggered by Deng's death.

"Deng Xiaoping died. Everything goes as expected. There will be no impact on Taiwan. I am not worried, why should you?" Lee was quoted by the China Times as saying.

"We have to thoroughly carry out democratization in order to survive and compete with other countries in the world," he added Friday.

Reports said Taipei authorities are taking a low profile over arrangements for the planned March visit here by Tibet's spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, as well as Lee's trip to Panama in September, to avoid angering Beijing.

Politicians and analysts have meanwhile urged the Taipei government to send a delegation to Deng's funeral service in a gesture of goodwill and brotherhood, after he died Wednesday aged 92.