Published by World Tibet Network News - Friday, February 21, 1997by Gilles Campion
BEIJING, Feb 21 (AFP) - Chinese senior leader Deng Xiaoping's death was an historic event for both China and the world, but the trauma that had long been expected to accompany it failed to materialise.
Just over four months before Beijing resumes sovereignty over Hong Kong, China has successfully proved it could handle the dramatic death of its paramount leader without shattering its stability.
"The regime tried to play down the impact of the death, first by announcing it in the middle of the night just hours after it happened, and then by pressing ahead with visits here by foreign officials and continuing with the overseas trips of Chinese ministers," a diplomat said.
Defence Minister Chi Haotian did not cut short an Asian trip, as China watchers had expected, but instead continued the swing with a visit to Indonesia.
Even Vice Premier Li Lanqing, a member of the all-powerful Communist Party Politburo, who was on an official trip to Israel when the patriarch died late Wednesday of respiratory failure, continued with his programme as planned.
"Despite the symbolic impact of Deng's death, we must remember that he was a veteran and not a serving leader," the diplomat told AFP.
"We knew the government had functioned without him for some time, but it is only now at this historic time that we are seeing the proof," he said.
Deng had given up the last of his official posts in 1990, but he still commanded enormous respect and influence and until fairly recently governed the communist giant from "backstage" as the China's emperors once did.
But his real influence had dipped significantly since he last appeared in public in February 1994, with a vacant stare on his face which suggested senility.
President Jiang Zemin, by managing to preserve peace and stability in this disparate country of 1.2 billion people, has passed the first of the three big tests of the year which will decide whether he will be confirmed as a worthy successor to Deng, analysts said.
"If the funeral goes well Jiang will emerge as the winner of the first round," another diplomat based in the Chinese capital said.
"Then he must prepare for the next two challeges facing him: The return of Hong Kong to China and the 15th Party Congress which will herald a new era in the history of the Chinese Communist Party," he said.
Jiang, 70, holds the top posts of head of state and secretary general of the Communist Party and army commander in chief. Installed by Deng, Jiang must now be accepted by the party as its number one figure and not just as a transitional leader.
"The leadership has shown that it has the situation under control and, although the army is on maximum alert, it has been discreet and its presence in the streets of the capital is low key," a Western diplomat said.
The authorities have announced a six-day national mourning period but have not imposed any rules of how people should act in an effort to avoid causing the "emotional shock" which followed the drama surrounding the death of Deng's predecessor Mao Zedong in 1976.
"The party remembers that the huge student demonstrations of 1989 erupted after the burial of former party secretary general Hu Yaobang, which is why it wanted to avoid asking for the people to lay wreaths or to attend memorial ceremonies," he added.
In China, the world's most populous nation, events can easily spiral oout of control as a million people frequently turn up for various public events.
"The army will certainly be far more present in areas which are at risk of unrest, like Xinjiang (in northwest China) and Tibet, but the regime has decided not to show the slightest sign of vulnerability in order to avoid giving the impression that it may be insecure," the diplomat said.
"We are beginning to discover a new regime in China, one which is of course still Marxist but which is more modern and professional."