by H. Asher Bolande

BEIJING, Feb 26 (AFP) - The death of Chinese patriarch Deng Xiaoping has raised the spectre of his career's darkest moment the Tiananmen massacre but few see his death as an opening for Beijing to reappraise the incident.

"I'm very sceptical about the idea," said Robin Munro, the Hong Kong director of Human Rights Watch Asia, a New York-based rights watchdog.

"One wants to be optimistic ... this is a historic opportunity if the government wants to take it. I think that, however, there are few signs that that is about to happen anytime soon."

Any change of the official line on the spring 1989 pro-democracy movement or the brutal army crackdown that ended it on June 4 that year would require a more fundamental change in government attitude, Munro told AFP.

"There is no sign of any easing of the government's position in dissent in general.

"On the contrary, it spent the last year mopping up what little dissidence was left," Munro said, citing lengthy prison sentences given to pro-democracy activists Wei Jingsheng and Wang Dan, as well as a hardened stance on opposition in Tibet and Xinjiang.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Chinese communist leaders have seen grassroots dissent as the doom of their rule, and have worked steadily to remove all traces of it, Munro said.

"Why would any of them, having achieved finally that goal of crushing dissent ... open up the Pandora's box again?"

According to independent estimates, hundreds of pro-democracy demonstrators were killed when the army was ordered into Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989.

Deng, who died on February 19 aged 92, personally sanctioned the military crackdown.

The government, which describes the action as the suppression of rioters, continues to deny that anyone other than soldiers were killed.

The April-June movement, which at its peak saw close to one million students and workers peacefully take to the streets, is officially seen as a "political turmoil" incited by a small number of anti-government plotters.

Former professor Ding Zilin, who lost a son in the crackdown, says the death of Deng would have little effect on her campaign for a government revision of its version of what happened.

"My attitude is that there will eventually be a reappraisal, and that attitude is unchanged by the death of Deng Xiaoping," she said.

Any change of heart would have to wait for further political developments, she said. "I don't think the current central leadership will change its view toward June 4."

The mother of jailed dissident Wang Dan was more prepared to take hope from Deng's death.

"Most Chinese people think the June 4 incident will be reappraised sooner or later. I think after the death of Deng Xiaoping, this day can surely come," said Wang Lingyun.

She voiced hope that a change in the political environment would emerge, not only for China's sake, but "because it would affect my family."

Munro said it would be wrong to rule out altogether the possibility of unforeseen events in Deng's wake, as a measure of unpredictability has always accompanied the deaths of Chinese leaders.

"One can't rule out the possibility," he said. "It's not inconceivable that a major leader will play the Tiananmen card. It would be an enormous political gamble, but not impossible."

That kind of grandstand tactic has only been used under very different circumstances than now, he said, citing Deng's daring challenge of the ultra-leftist establishment around 1978 as an example.

Today, there is overall government consensus on main issues like dissent, and disagreements appear to be over methods for economic reform, he said.