TAIPEI, April 9 1997 (Taipei Tzu-Li Wan-Pao) p.2 -- According to an analysis by the aides and staff unit of the Kuomintang [KMT], after the death of the former Chinese Communist leader Teng Hsiao-ping [Deng Xiaoping], the Chinese Communists have stepped up the study of the "Federation System" in an attempt to resolve the independence issues in Hsinchiang [Xinjiang], Mongolia, Tibet, and even Taiwan.

According to the KMT analysis, when the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Tibet, visited Taiwan recently, he seemed to have conveyed the message about a federation system which the Dalai side advocated.

Recently, the Chinese Communists have been spreading news through businessmen by saying that they intended to begin direct air navigation with Taiwan in July next year.

According to the analysis of the aides and staff unit of the KMT, the Chinese Communists have spread news through nongovernmental channels in an attempt to force Taiwan to go the negotiation table. The aides and staff unit held that the earlier Taiwan holds talks with the Chinese Communists, the more favorable it is to Taiwan. This is because there will be many restrictions after Hong Kong is returned to the mainland on 1 July 1997. Hong Kong will become a special region of the Chinese Communists, and Taiwan cannot unilaterally call it another name.

Making no attempt to conceal the truth, KMT aides and staff said that our policies and bureaucratic system often cause us to lose the initiative at the negotiation table.

Besides the Hong Kong issue, the KMT aides and staff unit has also received information on other issues. It pointed out that the Chinese Communists have accelerated the study of a federation system after the death of Deng Xiaoping. This is because the current leader of the Chinese Communists Chiang Tse-min [Jiang Zemin], being relatively moderate, is more likely to accept a nontraditional method of governing the border areas such as Xinjiang, Mongolia, and Tibet. The Chinese Communists are studying the feasibility of integrating these regions with a federation system, and they believe that Taiwan should be able to accept a federation system.

When the Dalai Lama visited Taiwan recently, the Dalai side brought up the idea of a federation system. After conducting an analysis, KMT aides and staff believed that the Dalai side may have come to convey this message. Judging from the fact that there was no strong reaction from the Chinese Communists when the Dalai met with President Li Teng-hui and Vice President and Premier Lien Chan during his recent visit to Taiwan, the Chinese Communists and the Dalai side must have some kind of tacit understanding.

An analysis within the KMT also said that in recent years, the Dalai Lama has been anxious to return to Tibet. This is because if the 14th Dalai Lama dies without returning to Tibet, the selection of the 15th Dalai Lama to inherit him will become a problem. If this should happen, it will become a problem whether to select the Dalai Lama from Tibet or outside of Tibet. It is possible that the Dalai Lama, like the Panchen Lama, will be placed under the control of the Chinese Communists.