Published by: World Tibet Network News 97/05/23 23:00 GMT

"Sydney Morning Herald"-- Australia May 22, 1997

The arrival tomorrow of China's economics supremo is, in his own

view, a pat on the back for Canberra agreeing to play the diplomatic

game by Beijing's rules. It may also herald rich trade benefits for

Australia. DAVID LAGUE reports.

Just in case the Howard Government hadn't got the message, Chinese

Vice-Premier Zhu Rongji this week decided he would spell it out. The

man the media have dubbed China's economic tsar thanked Australia for

finally agreeing to behave itself. After years of irritating carping

about Beijing's abysmal human rights record, the Australian

Government had last month abandoned its support for the annual

resolution condemning China at the United Nations Human Rights

Commission in Geneva.

Tomorrow Canberra will have its reward, a seven-day visit from Zhu at

the head of the most powerful Chinese business delegation to come to

Australia. This is diplomacy by Chinese rules.

Avoid criticising Beijing and the diplomatic and trade benefits will

flow. Draw attention to the widespread abuses of political,

religious and personal rights and you will risk exclusion from what

has successfully been portrayed as the world's most potentially

lucrative market and lost influence with a nation that has ambitions

to become a superpower.

Zhu is the most senior Chinese leader to visit since National

People's Congress chairman, Qiao Shi, who is ranked third in the

hierarchy, came to Australia in 1994. Zhu had earlier visited

Australia in 1992. His delegation, which includes 10 officials

holding the rank of Vice Minister or above, will visit Western

Australia, South Australia, Sydney, Canberra and the Great Barrier

Reef. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade officials had been

insisting that Zhu's visit had nothing to do with Australia's Geneva

stance; it was merely a natural follow-on from the visit of the Prime

Minister, Mr Howard, to China over Easter. But the urbane and

powerful economic supremo was saying the opposite.

At a briefing with Australian journalists in Beijing on Monday, Zhu

said he "hoped" it wouldn't be reported but, he confided, Premier Li

Peng had asked him to make the visit because Australia had reversed

its Geneva stance.

"Originally I didn't have any plan to go to Australia," he said

cheerfully. "I intended to visit some European countries. However,

the attitude of these countries at the UN Human Rights Commission

session has deeply disappointed us, so I don't find this atmosphere

appropriate for me to pay a visit to these countries."

The errant nations which have been denied the chance to lobby the

fifth-ranked leader in the Beijing hierarchy for trade and

investmanet opportunities were Ireland, the Netherlands, Austria and

Luxembourg. Australia was not the only nation which appeared to win

a prize for caving in at Geneva. French President Jazques Chirac in

Beijing last week signed a deal for the European Airbus consortium to

supply passenger aircraft worth $2 billion to China.

Most observers believe China would have delayed or cancelled this

contract if France had maintained its traditional support for the

Geneva resolution.

Even the mighty United States, which has relatively far less to lose

than Australia in any trade dispute with China, is reluctant to risk

reprisals from Beijing.

In renewing China's Most Favoured Nation (MFN) trade privileges with

Beijing this week, Bill Clinton rejected strong domestic pressure to

use access to the US market as a lever to extract human rights

concessions from China. "I believe if we were to revoke normal trade

status it would cut off our contact with the Chinese people and

undermine our influence with the Chinese Government," he said.

The supporters of Australia's decision to avoid confrontation with

Beijing believe that the Zhu visit could be the catalyst for

increased wool exports and more Chinese investmant in Western

Australia's iron and steel industry.

They point to the statistics as proof that Australia has benefited

from booming trade with the People's Republic and has nothing to gain

from whining about human rights.

Australian exports to China jumped 25 per cent last year and two-way

trade has epxanded by about 20 per cent each year over the past five

years to reach $8 billion in 1996.

Officials in Beijing have told their Australian counterparts that the

growth in trade with Australia is outstripping that of any other

nation. China is Australia's fifth largest trading partner and could

jump to second place once Hong Kong is reunited with the mainland

after July 1. Two-way investment is also surging, with Australian

companies contracted to spend up to $5 billion in China.

The biggest slice of an estimated $2 billion in Chinese investment in

Australia is a 40 per cent stake worth $400 million in RTZ-CRA's

Channar iron ore mine in Western Australia's Pilbara region. The

Channar mine is China's major offshore investment.

Beijing is also understood to be interested in investing in proposed

directly reduced iron (DRI) plants in the same region which Zhu will

visit with his 80-strong delegation at the weekend.

Australian officials believe there will also be diplomatic gains from

the second visit to Australia of a fast-track economic reformer who

is pexted to become a more important player in the post-Deng Xiaoping

leadership. Zhu has been widely credited with skilfully braking the

rampant inflation that threatened to derail economic reforms in 1993.

There has been considerable speculation that the polished by

hot-tempered Zhu,68, a former mayor of Shanghai like President Jiang

Zemin, will take over the premiership from the tough Li Peng, who is

required to step down early next year. However, it seems

inconceivable that Li would agree to retire from politics and some

observers in Beijing believe another position would be engineered for

him in a reshuffle of top posts. This means that even if Zhu did

become Premier, it is unlikely that he would then be the

second-ranked leader in China as Li is today.

Nevertheless, Zhu is a serious heavyweight who should have a big

future, barring political cataclysm in China. Officials and minders

at the reception hall in the leaders' exclusive enclave of

Chongoanhai, where he held the press briefing on Monday, were

deferential to the point of obsequiousness. Zhu was relaxed and

confident, but was humorously cagy when asked if he wanted the

Premier's job.

"If I said no, you would not believe me," he laughed. "So the best

approach is to say nothing.

"I don't know who the next Premier will be. Nobody has discussed

this with me. I haven't asked anybody because I don't think it is a

question that anyone can answer at present."

Some analysts believe Zhu is cast in a different mould from the

handliners like Li Peng, who supported the use of force to crush the

1989 Tiananmen protests. Shanghai was also gripped by paralysing

demonstrations at that time but, as mayor, Zhu reportedly resisted

using force. He is said to have reimposed control by mobilising

workers to maintain law and order. Parly because of this reputation

as a moderate and his role as an economic manager, human rights

activists have spared Zhu the fierce criticism directed at the

leaders who are generally considered to be most supportive of China's

ruthless suppression of dissent. However, some human rights

lobbyists believe Australia has paid too high a moral price for the

Zhu visit.

"We have not objected to Zhu Rongji's visits to Australia in the

past, but the circumstances surrounding this particular visit can

only be described as shameful," says Alex Butler, president of the

Australia Tibet Council.

"Australia has not only abandoned most of its long-standing human

rights commitments, but it has also allowed itself to be played off

against other democratic countries in the hope of gaining a temporary

trade advantage."

Sophia Woodman, of the New York-based group Human Rights in China,

believes it is hypocritical for China to offer trade benefits in

return for silence on human rights abuses. "It's kind of ironic that

China should argue so fervently that human rights and trade should

not be linked and now they are doing precisely that," says Woodman.

She predicts that the stance of governments such as Australia's would

also turn out to be short-sighted. "They should be considering the

long-term relationship with China and the Chinese people -- that is

all Chinese people, not just the leaders."

Senior Australian officials responsible for the Howard Government's

foreign policy advice are not persuaded by these arguments. They

believe Australia's public attacks on China's human rights abuses

have damaged a crucial diplomatic and trade advantage without any

sign that Beijing will become more humane.

Australia will now work behind the scenes at formal discussions that

the Howard Government claims China has agreed to hold on human

rights. No dates have been set for these talks.

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