Tibet Information Network

London, June 28 (TIN) China's efforts to avoid unrest during the Hong Kong hand-over may be raising the wrong expectations in Lhasa, where the Hong Kong celebrations appear to be fuelling Tibetan nationalist convictions instead of encouraging support for China's re-unification.

The increase in security during the hand-over and the extensive propaganda about Hong Kong's return to China both risked provoking a negative reaction in Tibet, but unluckily for the authorities the hand- over has coincided with reports of earthquakes and comets, both of which are seen as portents of political unrest.

China's publicity about the hand-over of Hong Kong celebrates it as a liberation from foreign occupation, a view which Tibetans in Lhasa are apparently happy to accept but which they assume is equally applicable to their own situation.

"Tibet does not belong to China like Hong Kong does not belong to the British," said an appeal reportedly written by an unknown dissident group in Lhasa this week, of which copies were released yesterday by the exiled Tibetan government in India.

"Why can China take back Hong Kong from British colonized rule but not give up its colonized rule in Tibet?" demanded the statement. The origin of document is impossible to verify, but it matches closely other reports of views currently circulating in Tibet.

Tension has been heightened further by a steep increase in security around Lhasa, including unusual troop movements and travel restrictions designed to avoid disturbances during the Hong Kong hand-over. "We should strive to do well in stabilizing the situation in our region, which is a matter of great importance, to ensure the success of the two great events, which are the return of Hong Kong and the convocation of the party's 15th congress," said a Tibet Daily article on 14th May. "We should take action in a timely manner against sabotaging activities such as causing disturbances and creating troubles, and resolutely wipe out these activities by nipping them in the bud," continued the article.

Earthquake Warnings Lead to Mantras on Walls -

Although Chinese troops are generally kept out of sight in Tibet, one group of soldiers is said to have set up camp in tents on the outskirts of Lhasa, possibly because there is no room in the barracks for the extra troops drafted into the area to cover the Hong Kong "alert period".

Many Tibetans have an alternative explanation for the soldiers sleeping under canvas: they believe the troops are worried about an impending earthquake which might hit the city. Either way the reports of the soldiers sleeping in tents is seen as a portent of unrest.

On or just after 2nd June an internal message was circulated by the government to the army, the medical units and the grain stores in Lhasa warning them that scientists had predicted an earthquake in the area in the near future. Other offices were told to check their buildings for safety in the event of an earthquake, according to some reports.

That night in several areas officials moved their families out into the streets or onto rooftops and slept outside. In Nyemo, 150 km west of Lhasa, officials believed thought the earthquake was due that night, and the entire population of the town slept outside, according to an unconfirmed report.

Since then flights to China are said to have been full of the families of Chinese soldiers and officials who have been sent home to avoid the expected earthquake and its possible consequences. News of the earthquake warning is now widespread and many families In Lhasa are still sleeping out on their verandahs or on rooftops at night.

The fear of earthquakes is well-founded, because the Tibetan plateau is riven by geological fault lines, and an earthquake measuring 5.3 on the Richter scale did occur in the north of Pashoe county, 500 km east of Lhasa, on 16th May. Since January a series of earthquakes have hit Kashgar in south western Xinjiang, about 1500 km north west of Lhasa, with the latest shock in the Kashgar area measuring 5.1 on the Richter scale on 24th June.

There are grounds for special concern about earthquakes in Lhasa because almost all the traditional houses in the city have been replaced by modern Chinese-style buildings which are constructed out of concrete blocks perched on narrow beams with insufficient margins to withstand earthquakes. Traditional buildings in Tibet were narrower at the top than at the base to increase stability, but the modern buildings have vertical walls.

But the real problem for the Chinese authorities lies with those who believe in portents and esoteric forces. Earthquakes in both Tibetan and Chinese mythology are seen as presaging major political change, although the change can be either good or bad - both the invasion of central Tibet in 1950 and the death of Mao Zedong in 1976 were preceded by earthquakes. The series of pro-independence demonstrations in Tibet that began in September 1987 was also preceded, and partly triggered, by three earthquakes near Lhasa during the previous week.

The earthquake warning this June came only weeks after sightings of the Hale-Bopp comet, which was clearly visible from Lhasa. Comets are also seen as a portent in Tibetan tradition.

By mid-June some walls in Lhasa had been painted with "mantras", or esoteric incantations, calling on the Buddhist deity Padmasambhava to protect people from the earthquake. Padmasambhava, addressed by Tibetans as Guru Rinpoche, was an 8th century Indian tantric master who introduced the distinctive form of Buddhism practised in Tibet and who is particularly associated with the ability to tame demons and earth spirits, and so is able to ward off earthquakes.

Since September last year China has been running a "spiritual civilisation" campaign designed to eradicate superstitious beliefs and practices. In early June the local television station in Lhasa broadcast instructions telling people to ignore rumours, accusing supporters of the exiled Dalai Lama of trying to stir up unrest by spreading concern about earthquakes.

But Lhasa is rife with rumours about the significance of the earthquake and comet portents, with the more educated Tibetans in offices saying there will be war in the Pacific with the US or Taiwan, and the more traditional Tibetans expecting a major upsurge in Tibet's conflict with China.

"Now Guru Rinpoche is opening his eyes and looking at Tibet and will do something for us," said an older Tibetan from Lhasa, "Everybody is waiting for something to happen, which they hope will be good for Tibet", she added. "Now our sun will also shine, by the grace of the Dalai Lama."

Some Tibetans in Lhasa are even reading the recent deaths of two leading lamas as signs of imminent improvement - the leading religious teacher Gen Lamrim, who died on 28th May, and the reincarnation of Retring Rinpoche, a former regent of Tibet, who died on 13th February, are seen as having taken on themselves the "negative karma" or accumulated bad luck of the Tibetan people, according to one report.

"The earthquake plus the Hong Kong story has made people nervous," said the Tibetan from Lhasa, who asked not to be named. "They are expecting that something unusual will happen now and in a way they are excited."

"You could feel a sense of tension," said a tourist who returned this week from Tibet. "We saw military convoys of nearly 100 trucks with supplies, troops were camping out in tents, and the assumption was that it had to do with paranoia over the Hong Kong hand-over," added the American, a lecturer from San Francisco who speaks Tibetan. "There is no Tibetan interest in joining in the celebrations," he said.

Tibetans in Lhasa who work for the government are all expected to attend celebrations in the new parade square in front of the Potala Palace on 1st July. Each government office has had to provide a troupe to sing or dance during the celebration, according to local sources and all government employees will receive bonus payments to mark the Hong Kong hand-over.