(Op-Ed, The Boston Globe, Monday, June 30, 1997)

Chinese people all over the world will deservedly celebrate the re-unification of Hong Kong with China. As much as the Tibetans applaud the right of the Chinese to be free of colonial humiliation, it is a painful reminder of China's continued occupation of Tibet. Moreover, what will happen to Tibet after the takeover of Hong Kong by China? It is in the best interest of both China and Tibet to negotiate constructively for a peaceful solution, before Tibet plunges into a tragic civil war.

Except for Macao, China will be free of any external rule for the first time in two centuries. Now China should free its own internal system of any undemocratic laws and replace them with respect for rule of law and equal treatment of all. The Chinese government finds it rational to rule Hong Kong under "one China two systems" policy, although people in Hong Kong have same language, culture, and history. But, Tibetans with a different language, culture, history and religion, are ruled directly by the central government. Why should there be a different standard for Tibet? There is already a basis for such autonomy in the 17-point agreement signed between the representatives of Tibet (under duress) and the Chinese government in 1951, which has also made promises similar to the 1984 Chinese-British declaration on Hong Kong, including the continuation of the existing political and economic system.

Indeed, the Dalai Lama and minority of Tibetans have proposed the "one country two systems" policy. The Dalai Lama has given up the claim for independence, hurting the feelings of many Tibetans, in the hope of gaining from China genuine autonomy for ethnic Tibetans. Unfortunately, China withdrew from these talks and now ignores the Dalai Lama's repeated peaceful initiatives. It seems as though China is waiting for the collapse of the Tibetan struggle after the Dalai Lama dies. But this approach could backfire. The Dalai Lama recently declared that his reincarnation will be born in the safe hands of Tibetans in exile. In the meantime, his international recognition increases every year, as does the influence of the Tibetan people, in India, Europe, and North America. But there is no Tibetan with the charisma and stature of the Dalai Lama to stop the Tibetan movement from resorting to violence.

Tibetans youths are becoming increasingly militant, with a possible civil war in the near future. The upsurge of militant youth is mainly due to deprivation in three areas: education, the economy, and religious freedom. The Chinese have established a number of schools in Tibet, but in 1994, 70 percent of students in Tibet College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry and 80 percent of students in Tibet Nationalistic Institute in Xian were ethnic Chinese, even though government figures show that only 4 percent of the population in Tibet is ethnic Chinese. Either the educational policy gives an undue advantage to the ethnic Chinese or Tibetans have become a minority in their own land. According to Chinese sources, Tibet continues to be the most illiterate region in China, with a 55 to 80 percent illiteracy rate. The economic sector is also firmly under Chinese control, with as many 13,000 shops and restaurants in the capital city of Lhasa owned by Chinese, while only 300 are owned by Tibetans. Although there ar

e no firm numbers, there are many unemployed youths visible in Tibet's cities.

These unemployed youths, with their strong sentiments of nationalism, could resort to violence, if they gain access to weapons. Neighboring countries, becoming increasingly nervous about China's 15 percent increase in its defense budget every year for its 3 million-man army, may be willing to send a cache of arms into Tibet, as the CIA did in the late 1950's and '60s. There were nine bomb blasts in Tibet last year. The most effective means of controlling violence among Tibetans and maintaining non-violent struggle is the influence of Buddhist religion, on which the Chinese have imposed all sorts of restrictions. Without religion to guide them, what is to stop unemployed youth from resorting to violence? Violence will be a disaster for Tibetans and equally so for the large number of Chinese living in Tibet.

This can be prevented by finding a peaceful solution to the Tibetan problem. The ball is in China's court, especially since China is now trying to reassure the people in Hong Kong in order to get admitted into the World Trade Organization and win Taiwan over in the near future. All those objectives could be definitely enhanced by finding a solution for Tibet. Last month Russia signed an agreement that provides wide autonomy to the Chechnyans. It is China's turn to extend an olive branch to the Tibetans.

Lobsang Sangay is a Visiting Scholar at East Asian Legal Studies in Harvard Law School.