Published by: THE WORLD UYGHUR NETWORK NEWS 16 September 1997

Reuter, 9/16/97

Southeast Asian countries are worried about the ebbing tide of United States power in the region brought on by budget constraints in Washington, officials and analysts say. The next power most Southeast Asian nations will be watching out for, the analysts believe, is China. It would not be long before China became a major military, economic and political force in the area, they said.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar, an expert on regional affairs at the Indonesian Academy of Sciences, said there was still "an underlying suspicion about China's intentions in the region". With a lot of unresolved territorial disputes in the region China's failure to renounce the use of force to settle disputes was a major concern to Indonesia, she said.

China has claimed the entire South China Sea, sparking disputes with Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and even Brunei. Outgoing Philippine Defence Secretary Renato de Villa said that as China "unleashes its energies for its own development, we can see that it is going to be a major player in the region".

"When we look down the road, we see that China will become a world power."

Harry Harding, a prominent Sinologist with George Washington University, said many of the mainland's neighbours were worried.

"They see that it has the growing attributes of national power, economic and military in particular. They see, too, China has territorial disputes on land and at sea with many of its neighbours."

An Armed Forces of the Philippines report said several countries were "apprehensive of the security posture a superpower China may adopt", especially with its military modernisation fuelled by a robust economy.

"There is the perception that China intends to make Southeast Asia its sphere of influence, especially with its declaration of sovereignty over the South China Sea," the study said.

Beijing scoffs at such claims: "These are wild allegations by some critics to undermine the progress which China has made. They have no basis," premier Li Peng said.

The question is whether an expanded Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) of nine widely-divergent countries can serve as a counterbalance to China. Some doubt it, saying militarily, members tend to go their separate ways. But others feel ASEAN must find a way to deal with a resurgent China in the 21st century.