BEIJING -- AN ILLUSION OF DEMOCRACY

* The First Hundred Days of Zhu

Zhu Rongji is marking his first hundred days as head of government. During the past three months, his image has been strengthened. No sooner had he been elected than he announced his government's main objective: to ensure 8% economic growth while keeping inflation below 3%.

But if the financial crisis, from the fall of the yen to the change in exchange rates, renders his task especially arduous, that is all the more reason for him to devote himself to his other objectives: reform of the financial system and of local and central institutions, as well as modernization of the country. We could perhaps even say that the Chinese leadership has in a way been "spared" in order to avoid disastrous economic repercussions.

* The Economic Crisis

The Chinese economy can be split into three sectors, two of which are experiencing a major crisis (the immense rural hinterland and the Soviet-type state industrial sector), while the third, the multinational market, although very dynamic, is dependent on imports and on direct investments by foreign companies. It is that third sector, however, which is supplying the maximum impetus to the capitalist transformation of China.

* The Yen Crisis

The importance that White House circles accord to Beijing is linked to the determination of the Chinese government not to devalue the yuan in the wake of the collapse of the exchange rates of the Asian currencies relative to the dollar and in the wake of the significant devaluation of the yen. The evolution of the situation does not depend on China, however, but on the type of economic relations that will prevail between Tokyo and Washington. According to Nobel Prize winner for economics Franco Modigliani, "If the yuan is devalued, that would mean that exports to the US would be reduced, at a time when the domestic economy is in full expansion despite an increase in the trade deficit. The source of the problem stems from the creditors of this enormous deficit, who are scattered throughout the world: if they were to lose confidence and back out, the crisis could worsen very seriously, both for the United States and for the rest of the world. (La Republica, 4 August 1998)". In other words, the Chinese have

a weapon that is more powerful than any nuclear device: the power to decide on a devaluation of their own currency.

* Human Rights

Democratic Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, declared at the end of Bill Clinton's trip to Beijing: "His trip may have paid for itself, but he has not redeemed his China policy." It is clear that during his trip the American President did not even scratch the surface of the human rights problem. In our view, he only sought to save the current Chinese leadership from a political and economic crisis which could have had (and could still have) enormous repercussions. Since Clinton's departure, many dissidents of the newly constituted Chinese Democratic Party have been arrested and imprisoned with no serious charges being brought against them, just like in 1977 and in 1989.

* Taiwan

As everyone was able to hear during the live television broadcast of the joint Clinton-Jiang press conference, the Tibetan cause may be approaching a crucial juncture. But what is really the situation?

It must not be forgotten that the only true territorial problem for the Chinese remains Taiwan. Something interesting has happened in this regard: on 14 July, for the first time, a Chinese minister, Zhu Lilan, Minister of Science and Technology, landed in Taipei for a bilateral scientific seminar. This constitutes a first step for the future of the island and is surely the fruit of secret negotiations between the two parties. Nor is it mere chance that the Dalai Lama, during a major interview published on 6 July in "Time Magazine" announced that he had postponed his planned trip to Taipei to a later time.

It might thus be possible to envisage a solution of the type "one country -- two systems", advocated for years by the Dalai Lama and applied in general when what is involved are territorial issues: annexations, invasions or secessions.

* Sino-Tibetan Relations

On 26 June, President Jiang Zemin announced that the government had at its disposal numerous means of communication with the Dalai Lama in exile. The news, even if it had been asserted by many parties over the past two years, would confirm that direct contacts were being carried out between the government of Dharamsala and that of Beijing with the aim of opening "bilateral" political negotiations. The Tibetan Foreign Office responded on 29 June. Kalon C. Tethong asserted that the Tibetan issue was not a religious question but indeed a political one and that the "Taiwan" issue had to be discussed and resolved between the representatives of the two parties. But on 6 July, the Dalai Lama, as already indicated, canceled his visit to Taipei.

It has been learned from Tibetan sources that the Dalai Lama convened the Kashag and brought together his closest collaborators in order to prepare a response to Beijing on the basis of Jiang Zemin's assertions. But the interview that the Dalai Lama gave "Time" is quite clear. His Holiness uses the word "mainland" for China and maintains that China is in the process of changing. He announced that "private" contacts existed and that he would like to return to Tibet for a spiritual pilgrimage. Tenzin Gyatso, analyzing the Taiwan problem, strongly maintains that in the modern world the concept of complete independence does not mean much. But the spiritual and political leader of Tibet is speaking in his own name. He emphasized this in the same interview, as if he need the stamp of approval of the government in exile.

* What Prospects for What Type of Negotiations?

To read these statements, as well as others made subsequently, it might seem that the "largest part is done" and that there is only a procedural problem of how to gain time to decide on the most opportune moment for an initial official meeting between the two delegations. At the end of July, Jiang Zemin affirmed: "The door to negotiations is open."

Lodi Gyari, the Dalai Lama's special envoy to the Americas, restated during an AP interview on 31 July that the Dalai Lama was asking for autonomy for Tibet and not independence, but that it was necessary to proceed with extreme caution. In the same interview, there appears for the first time one of the points that will very probably form part of the negotiations for a final document -- secret negotiations, it must be stressed. The Chinese will have to recognize that Tibet was once free. Caveat: there will be no discussion of the invasion of Tibet by troops of the People's Liberation Army and of the territorial annexation that followed, but solely of the status prior to 1949.

* Conclusions

The scenario might be the following: Tibetans and Chinese, on the basis of the elements described above (the economic crisis, United States pressures, the problems of Japan and of Taiwan) could sit down at the negotiating table for secret discussions in order to arrive as quickly as possible at a conclusion acceptable to the two parties: administrative autonomy for Tibet in exchange for recognition of Tibet as an "integral part of China". Would that constitute a defeat or a victory? It is clear that certain problems covered, such as resolution of the Panchen Lama issue, for example, will not facilitate matters, even if I am convinced that this item in particular will never reach the negotiating table, but will find a solution that is acceptable -- let us hope -- to the Tibetans before the start of the negotiations.

A China that is too preoccupied to encourage foreign investments -- determined to pursue use of repression as a political arm against ideological deviationism or against the libertarian and democratic movements, as well as determined to assume the leadership of the Asian continent -- must resolve its problems with Taiwan and with Tibet. On the other hand, the Dalai Lama knows that time is not on his side. After 40 years of exile, his pragmatism demands that he find a feasible way to return to Tibet, at least as spiritual leader of a people close to extinction.

* The Democratic Illusion

We consider that any negotiation conducted in secret in the corridors of the party risks bringing meager success to the weaker of the two parties, i.e. the Tibetans. But a victorious and troublesome role is thereby reaffirmed for the Beijing empire which, according to reports by many observers, is expected to provide the economic and military leadership of the continent for many decades to the detriment of any revolution or internal democratic reform, of a fifth modernization or recognition of fundamental human rights. There is nothing other than the confirmation of a status quo, which is all to Beijing's advantage -- a democratic illusion.

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Under the auspices of the "Voice of Tibet" Foundation, Voice of Tibet provides non-censured news and information on Tibet (India and Nepal) through a daily shortwave radio service.

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(Published by DEMOCRACY IN CHINA/FREEDOM FOR TIBET ! - Number 74 - 15 August, 1998)