IF THE SERBS DON'T SIGN THE PLAN, LIFT THE ARMS EMBARGO

ON BOSNIA.

by Haris Silajdzic *

SUMMARY: The Contact Group should give the Serbs three months to sign its peace plan for Bosnia. If they fail to sign, the arms embargo against the Bosnian government should be lifted. (International Herald Tribune, february 23, 1995)

For three years our government has participated in every negotiating forum and signed every international "peace" plan. Last July we accepted the plan of the Contact Group (Britain, France, Germany, Russia and the United States) after the group assured us that, if the Serbs refused this "take it or leave it" offer, international sanctions against Serbia would be tightened, the group would offer greater protection of major cities that were designated "safe areas" by the United Nations, and ultimately the arms embargo would he lifted.

Unfortunately, the group not only failed to tighten sanctions, it actually eased them. Instead of increasing protection of the safe areas, the group abandoned Bihac by forswearing any action to halt a Serbian ground assault that is now in its third month. Instead of ending the embargo, Britain and France have openly opposed such a move in the UN Security Council and the U.S. Congress.

Time after time we have bowed to international demands that we make concessions, only to see them pocketed by the negotiators and the Serbs. If this pattern continues, our sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity will be frittered away. And for what?

Like other appeasements throughout history, the West's capitulations to nationalist aggression will not only prolong the war but will lead Belgrade to up the ante. Centuries of history and culture will be eradicated as vast swaths of Bosnia and Croatia are purged of all non-Serbs. The borders of the regime's "Greater Serbia" could soon abut Slovenia and Greece.

We have watched as the Western powers proposed a 10-way, then a three-way and now a less obvious but equally onerous division of our country. We have watched as Serbian attacks on our cities somehow rendered NATO, the world's most successful and powerful collective security institution, helpless.

We have watched as United Nations commanders redefined their mandates in our country as "mediating between the parties" and "peacekeeping" where there is no peace, rather than protecting our remaining population and facilitating humanitarian aid deliveries and the withdrawal of all forces other than our army.

We have listened as Western leaders have made various commitments, only to see their resolve evaporate amid efforts to maintain a meaningless "allied unity" of inaction.

All the while, the war continues through a third winter. Promises to the contrary, Slobodan Milosevic continues to rearm and resupply his Bosnian Serb proxies.

Seventy percent of our country is occupied. More than 200.000

civilians have been killed, including 17,000 children. More than 400,000 people have been wounded. More than 2 million have been expelled from their homes. All this and our prewar population was only 4.3 million.

The Contact Group now faces two choices. First, it could continue on its current course, which is prolonging and widening the war. In Bihac, Croatian Serb forces and Serbian troops have joined the fighting and presented the clearest evidence of crossborder aggression against Bosnia since Serbia's initial assaults in 1992. This course will leave Bosnia and Croatia indefinitely divided, the Balkan-wide conflict unresolved, Serbia's non-Serb population exposed to increasing terror, and Serbian aggression - the greatest source of instability and unrest throughout the region - unchecked.

Alternatively, the group could, at long last, give the Serbs a genuine ultimatum: Accept the plan, or the arms embargo will be lifted. The deadline should be no later than May 1, however, because the Serbs will launch new offensives during the spring.

The plan, which calls for an internal administrative reorganization of Bosnia and which has been approved by our Parliament, should also be officially adopted - and made irreversible - by the UN Security Council. This would encourage moderate Serbs to accept it.

In addition, Serbia should recognize Bosnia within its current borders. This would demonstrate Belgrade's sincerity in accepting the plan and be an important step forward in the peace process.

To show our good faith and commitment to peace, we would support such measures. But after years of failed negotiations and unhonored commitments, the Contact Group must be firm and end the embargo if the Serbs again fail to cooperate.

Defenders of the embargo claim that ending it would somehow "Americanize" the war. Actually, ending the embargo would "Bosnianize" the war by enabling us to defend ourselves.

For the past three years the war has been "Serbianized". While the aggressors have received constant supplies of heavy weapons and equipment, we have been deprived of our inherent right of self-defense. Our army already has ample manpower, which would be effective if we had proper arms instead of one rifle for every three soldiers.

We are asking only for the right to receive weapons, not ground troops. Those who warn of the dangers of "Americanizing" the conflict by introducing U.S. troops are therefore answering a question that no one is asking.

Defenders of the embargo also claim that ending it would lead to a collapse of the UN mission in Bosnia. Yet a majority of humanitarian organizations has already pledged to remain even if the UN troops leave. In addition, many countries have pledged to send troops to replace departing European units.

Ultimately, of course, if Britain and France want to go, this is a decision for them, not us, to make, just as whether we arm ourselves and defend our country is, by right, our decision.

Defenders of the embargo also say that lifting it would provoke preemptive attacks by the Serbs. What is stopping them now ? Certainly not the credible threat of NATO air strikes. It is our army and the will of our people that have prevented our country from being totally overrun.

These, along with profound hope and our firm commitment to a pluralistic and democratic society rather than a fascist one sustain us in our pursuit of a just settlement and sustainable peace.

We hope to receive the support of the Contact Group in giving peace a chance through a genuine ultimatum for the Serbs and, if they do not see reason, an end to the arms embargo. Until now, the group's policies have suffered from a fundamental flaw - they do not work. It is time for action and resolve, not more idle talk and sliding deadlines.

* Prime minister of the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina

(The Washington Post)