DATE=2/17/97

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-35728

TITLE=EXPANSION OF NATO

BYLINE= ED WARNER

DATELINE= WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

IN HER TALKS WITH EUROPEAN AND RUSSIAN LEADERS THIS

WEEK, U-S SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT WILL BE DEALING,

ABOVE ALL, WITH THE PLANNED EXPANSION OF NATO, FERVENTLY DESIRED

BY CENTRAL EUROPEAN NATIONS AND FIRMLY OPPOSED BY RUSSIA.

V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS ON VARYING VIEWS IN THE UNITED STATES.

TEXT: THE NEW NATO CAN VANQUISH OLD HATREDS, PROMOTE

INTEGRATION, CREATE A SECURE ENVIRONMENT FOR PROSPERITY AND DETER

VIOLENCE IN THE REGION WHERE TWO WORLD WARS AND THE COLD WAR

BEGAN.

THAT IS THE NATO ENVISIONED BY U-S SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE

ALBRIGHT, WRITING IN "THE ECONOMIST" MAGAZINE. SHE NOTES THAT

THE POSSIBILITY OF JOINING NATO HAS CAUSED HUNGARY TO SETTLE ITS

BORDER DISPUTES WITH SLOVAKIA AND ROMANIA. SHE PLEDGES AN

EXPANDED NATO IS NOT AIMED AT RUSSIA. ALTHOUGH THE U-S NUCLEAR

UMBRELLA WILL BE EXTENDED TO NEW MEMBERS, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS WILL

BE PUT ON THEIR TERRITORY.

THE RUSSIANS ARE UNCONVINCED. LEKSEI PUSHKOV, FOREIGN AFFAIRS

DIRECTOR AT RUSSIAN PUBLIC TV, MAKES A FAMILIAR ARGUMENT IN "THE

NEW YORK TIMES: "MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE, THE NATO EXPANSION IS

REVIVING RUSSIA'S OLD SUSPICIONS OF THE UNITED STATES. AFTER

RUSSIA REMOVED ALL ITS TROOPS FROM EASTERN EUROPE AND THE

BALTICS, IT DOES NOT UNDERSTAND WHY NATO TROOPS SHOULD COME TO

TAKE THEIR PLACE IN THOSE COUNTRIES."

SOME AMERICANS AGREE. DIPLOMAT-HISTORIAN GEORGE KENNAN SAYS

EXPANDING NATO WOULD BE THE MOST FATEFUL ERROR OF AMERICAN POLICY

IN THE POST COLD WAR ERA. BY CHALLENGING RUSSIAN PRESTIGE AND

SECURITY INTERESTS, IT WOULD RESTORE THE ATMOSPHERE OF THE COLD

WAR.

BENJAMIN SCHWARZ IS EXECUTIVE EDITOR OF THE WORLD POLICY JOURNAL

AND A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE WORLD POLICY INSTITUTE IN NEW YORK:

THERE IS NO WAY I THINK THAT RUSSIANS CAN HELP BUT SEE

THIS AS A HOSTILE AND SOMEWHAT INTRUSIVE ACT. THIS IS AN

ISSUE THAT UNITES THE ENTIRE POLITICAL CLASS IN RUSSIA.

IT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT JUST ULTRA NATIONALISTS, JUST

PEOPLE WHO ARE HOSTILE TO THE UNITED STATES REGARD AS

THREATENING. IT IS SOMETHING THAT ALL RUSSIANS REGARD AS

THREATENING. IN FACT, THOSE WHO ADVOCATE THE CLOSEST

TIES BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES FEEL THE MOST

BETRAYED AND MOST EXASPERATED BY THIS.

THIS KIND OF PROTEST IS TO BE EXPECTED, SAYS SIMON SERFATY,

DIRECTOR OF EUROPEAN STUDIES AT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND

INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON. "WE CANNOT ALLOW RUSSIA TO

DO AFTER THE COLD WAR WHAT THE SOVIET UNION COULD NOT DO DURING

THE COLD WAR", HE SAYS. AND HE THINKS THE WEST HAS GONE TO GREAT

LENGTHS TO REASSURE THE RUSSIANS:

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT ALL SIXTEEN MEMBER STATES, LED

BY THE UNITED STATES, HAVE GONE OUT OF THEIR WAY TO

IMPRESS ON THE GOVERNMENT OF RUSSIA THAT THE ENLARGEMENT

IS IN NO WAY OFFENSIVE TO THEM AND THAT EVEY STEP THAT

CAN BE TAKEN WILL BE TAKEN IN ORDER TO ACCOMMODATE EVERY

APPREHENSION THEY MIGHT HAVE. BUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF

NOT GOING AHEAD WITH A DECISION THAT HAS BEEN MADE AND

ANNOUNCED WOULD BE FAR MORE TRAUMATIC THAN WHATEVER

FRANKLY RUSSIA CAN OPPOSE TO THAT DECISION.

FAILING TO EXPAND NATO WOULD BE HARSHLY DISAPPOINTING TO THE

THREE NATIONS THAT SEEM SLATED FOR MEMBERSHIP: POLAND, HUNGARY

AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC. OTHER COUNTRIES ALSO WANT TO JOIN AT THE

EARLIEST OPPORTUNITY. EVEN IN AZERBAIJAN IN THE CAUCASUS, A

POLITICAL PARTY HAS FORMED TO SEEK NATO MEMBERSHIP.

EDUARD SHEVARDNADZE, PRESIDENT OF GEORGIA, WANTS HIS COUNTRY TO

HAVE A CONNECTION WITH NATO. HE THINKS A COMPROMISE IS POSSIBLE

THAT WOULD SATISFY RUSSIA. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR TO GO? FORMER

U-S SECRETARY OF STATE HENRY KISSINGER WARNS AGAINST DILUTING

NATO JUST TO APPEASE MOSCOW, WHICH WANTS TO MAINTAIN BUFFER

STATES BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE WEST.

SIMON SERFATY OF CSIS OPPOSES ANY EFFORT TO MODIFY

ARTICLE FIVE OF THE NATO TREATY, WHICH PLEDGES THAT ALL NATO

MEMBERS WILL COME TO THE DEFENSE OF ANY MEMBER THAT IS ATTACKED:

THERE IS NO TRANSFORMATION OF NATO THAT IS NEEDED AT

THIS PARTICULAR POINT IN TIME; FOR EXAMPLE, DILUTING THE

ARTICLE FIVE GUARANTEE, WHICH REALLY IS THE ESSENCE OF

THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY THAT WAS SIGNED FORTY-EIGHT

YEARS AGO IN WASHINGTON, WOULD SIMPLY MAKE OF THE

ALLIANCE A RELATIONSHIP THAT WOULD NO LONGER BE CREDIBLE

EITHER ON THE PART OF THE EUROPEAN ALLIES OR ON THE PART

OF ANY ADVERSARY.

BUT BENJAMIN SCHWARZ AND OTHERS FEAR EXTENDING THE U-S SECURITY

GUARANTEE WILL INVOLVE THE UNITED STATES IN DISTANT CONFLICTS

WITH LITTLE PUBLIC SUPPORT AT HOME.

U-S SENATOR RICHARD LUGAR SAYS, "THERE CAN BE NO LASTING

SECURITY AT THE CENTER WITHOUT SECURITY AT THE PERIPHERY." MR.

SCHWARZ RESPONDS THAT WOULD MEAN ENDLESS THREATS TO AMERICAN

SECURITY.

JONATHAN CLARKE OF WASHINGTON'S CATO INSTITUTE SAYS THE WEST

SHOULD DRAW RUSSIA INTO ITS SECURITY SYSTEM THE WAY IT DID TO

GERMANY AND JAPAN AFTER WORLD WAR TWO. FOR CRITICS OF AN EXPANDED

NATO, NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN RECONCILIATION WITH RUSSIA

AFTER ITS DEFEAT IN THE COLD WAR.

FOR SUPPORTERS, A LARGER NATO ASSURES A UNIFIED WEST FOR WHATEVER

PROBLEMS LIE AHEAD. (SIGNED)

NEB/PT

17-Feb-97 6:23 PM EST (2323 UTC)

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Source: Voice of America