Budapest Nepszabadsag in Hungarian

May 2, 1997

[translation for personal use only]

Correspondent's report on results of opinion poll carried out by the International Sociological Research Center in Moscow among 4,500 people representing the entire Russian population, in March and April 1997: "Who Is Afraid of Hungary's NATO Membership?"

The following are the results of the opinion poll survey carried out by the International Sociological Research Center in Moscow and the lessons drawn from the survey:

1. Do you regard NATO membership as exclusively Hungary's internal affair?

-- Yes: 54 percent;

-- No: 20 percent;

-- Does not know: 26 percent;

2. Does NATO membership strengthen the country's defense and its defense capability?

-- Yes, that is so: 42 percent;

-- No, that is not quite so: 30 percent;

-- No, the truth is completely different: 8 percent;

3. Does Hungary belong to Russia's sphere of vital interests?

-- Yes: 4 percent;

-- No: 56 percent;

-- Does not know: 40 percent;

4. Under what conditions do you regard Hungary's NATO membership as possible?

-- if no nuclear missiles and launchers are deployed in its territory: 69 percent;

-- if a Russian-Hungarian nonattack agreement is signed: 15 percent;

-- if Hungary does not allow the use of its territory for attack against another country: 14 percent;

-- does not know: 2 percent;

5. What consequences might NATO membership have for Hungary?

-- protection of citizens and of the state from war threats: 42 percent;

-- increase in military expenses: 30 percent;

-- increase in tax burdens: 28 percent;

6. What is your position regarding the opinion of western political scientists according to which Hungary is used as a buffer zone between East and West, instead of making it a NATO member?

-- understand this: 6 percent;

-- reject this: 71 percent;

-- does not know: 23 percent;

7. Do you think it is necessary that the UN Security Council should discuss Hungary's NATO membership?

-- Yes: 34 percent;

-- No: 35 percent;

-- Does not know: 31 percent;

8. Should a referendum be held in Hungary on this country's NATO membership?

-- Yes, definitely: 59 percent;

-- No, not necessarily: 31 percent;

-- Does not know: 10 percent;

9. Do you fear that, in case of NATO membership, Hungary's territory will be used for attacks against Russia?

-- Yes: 18 percent;

-- No: 46 percent;

-- Does not know: 36 percent;

10. In your view, how could one best solve the issue of Hungary's security?

-- by creating a European collective security system: 60 percent;

-- by strengthening the UN and the peacekeeping forces: 25 percent;

-- by deepening integration with Western and East European countries: 11 percent;

-- by signing bilateral agreements, including agreements with Russia, on security guarantees: 6 percent.

According to the experts of the International Sociological Research Center, the results of this survey proved to be a surprise in view of the strong official propaganda against NATO's expansionary policy and against the membership of certain former socialist countries.

According to the results of the survey, most Russians think that Hungary's NATO membership will strengthen its defense capability (42 percent). The Russian population drew these conclusions in connection with the fact that Russia can no longer defend its former allies, and it cannot even defend itself. The state of the Russian Army and Navy and the collapse of the entire defense system prove this.

Many Russians think that Hungary's NATO membership is strictly the internal affair of Hungary and the Hungarian people, but there are also different opinions. Some 34 percent of the people in the survey think that the issue of Hungary's NATO membership should be discussed by the UN Security Council, while 35 percent oppose this, and 31 percent did not give an answer; in other words, the opinions differ.

Russian public opinion does not support the myth that Hungary belongs to Russia's sphere of vital interests, a myth propagated by extremist politicians who think in terms of stereotypes of the Russian Empire.

The Russian people regard Hungary as a friend, irrespective of whether Hungary becomes a NATO member or not. Hungary will remain a favorite target country for visits, rest, tourism, and business; an exporter of excellent foods and goods to the broad Russian market. Therefore, the Russian society rejects the Western theory, mostly a U.S. theory, according to which Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland would be used as a buffer zone between the West and East, between the West and Russia.

The Russian population believe less in the official propaganda and do not think that Hungary's territory would be used for an attack against Russia, but they also think that there are other, better solutions for Hungary's security problem.

The most important lesson is that the survey showed that the Russian society is very aware of the fact that one sovereign country cannot dictate to another sovereign country. The times of the Russian big-power dictate is definitely over, and every issue can be solved with agreements and mutual understanding. The Russian people realize this, but the old party nomenclature do not understand this yet. The Russian population see new priorities in the development of Russian-Hungarian relations, priorities dictated by the new times and the new economic conditions. Hungary's NATO membership will not solve any problems of individual people either in Hungary or in Russia. And this should also be taken into consideration -- the analysis concludes.

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Johnson's Russia List

11 May 1997

djohnson@cdi.org