Moskovskiy Komsomolets 15 May 97 p 2

Report by Yulia Kalinina: "Russians, Here Is a List of What You

Should Be Afraid of. It Includes All but a Large-Scale War"

[passage omitted] Last week the Security Council approved the National Security Doctrine that itemizes all threats to us. True, for some reason the doctrine has not been published. Presumably, they decided that it is good for the citizens to be afraid of everything without exception. [passage omitted]

Nonetheless, we consider such an approach erroneous. The Russians have every right to known who threatens us, and with what, and to look danger straight in the face. Therefore we propose to you a list of state-approved threats. [passage omitted]

First, about the "internal" threats -- that is to say, the state to which our authorities have, by joint efforts, reduced the country. The most serious threat today is an acute economic crisis in the form of a sharp decline in output, destruction of the scientific-technical potential, stagnation of the agrarian sector, disruption of the payments and monetary system, and a growing state debt.

No less serious a threat lies in that our economy is rapidly evolving toward the status of a raw material appendage of the developed states, which leads to the loss of the country's economic and political independence.

In the social sphere, the main trouble is that our society is rapidly dividing into a narrow circle of the rich and the predominant mass of poor citizens, which results in "social upheavals and the degradation of the nation." Citizens are degrading, the population is shrinking, the ruling authority is weakening, and certain social sections are trying to stand up to it, provoking social upheavals that serve as a "basis for the evolution of an authoritarian political regime."

Yet another terrible threat is the growth of nationalism and separatism. This threat is compounded by the mass migration to the Russian territory of "representatives of ethnic groups from neighboring countries." [passage omitted]

Next comes the threat of the criminalization of society, and the weakening of law enforcement in the country. [passage omitted]

The threat of the depletion of natural resources and the worsening of the ecological situation is also great. [passage omitted]

Next, the National Security Doctrine tackles threats to Russia in the foreign policy sphere. It needs to be recognized that "external" threats pale next to "internal" threats. The main thing of which we should be afraid are the hegemonist and expansionist ambitions of a number of foreign states. [passage omitted]

We are also threatened by the aggravation of political, economic, and other conflicts with the CIS countries and the Baltic states which are increasingly orienting themselves toward "world and regional geopolitical centers other than Russia." [passage omitted]

As concerns wars, the Doctrine says: "The threat of a large-scale aggression being unleashed against Russia in the next five to 10 years is unlikely." [passage omitted]

To be sure, the Doctrine enumerates traditional threats: international terrorism, proliferation of nuclear weapons in Asia and the Middle East, and NATO expansion, but we have gotten accustomed to them. One new threat, however, is indeed terrifying: "penetration of Russian security objects by secret agents and technical means of foreign intelligence services."

In conclusion, the Doctrine explains that the main threats to us lie in the internal political, economic, social, and spiritual spheres, and have predominantly a non-military character. [passage omitted]

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Johnson's Russia List

15 May 1997

djohnson@cdi.org