Asia Times

May 27, 1997

[for personal use only]

Our military sources in Moscow say President Boris Yeltsin's dismissal of defense minister Igor Rodionov and chief of General Staff Viktor Samsonov, and the appointment of army General Igor Sergeyev, the present commander of the Strategic Missile Forces, as the new defense minister indicates that the long-standing debate over the direction of Russian military reform may now be coming to an end.

Yeltsin blamed Rodionov and Samsonov for "a very low level of work" in implementing military reforms. Both men were in favor of keeping more men in uniform; Sergeyev, on the other hand, is seen as a "prophet" of a more compact force, which will rely on maintaining nuclear capabilities in all branches. Sergeyev's new military doctrine may mean Russia will drop commitments not to use nuclear weapons as a first option: The new minister believes that while Russia's armed forces rebuild over the next decade, their forces, including the army and air force, should maintain a tactical nuclear capability. Some analysts believe, however, that Sergeyev is just a transitional figure, and that Defense Council chief Yuri Baturin, as "the architect of reform", may really be next in line for the post.

More heads are likely to roll in the near future, clearing the stage for "the new reformers". Informed sources speak about Interior Minister Anatoly Kulikov, Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov and General Prosecutor Yuri Skuratov as the most likely candidates for replacement.

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Johnson's Russia List

27 May 1997

djohnson@cdi.org