MOSCOW RIFE WITH RUMOURS ABOUT DUMA DISBANDMENT

By Marina Shakina, RIA Novosti political analyst

June 3, 1997

Russia's State Duma has not yet got down to closely examining the government's new programme, but it is already clear that a package of laws to cut back welfare benefits and reform the housing and communal economy will not be accepted by deputies lying down.

So what remains to be done by the government, which is convinced of the urgent and pressing need of the measures proposed?

Of course, to reason and argue with parliament. And that is indeed being done. But the curious thing is that at the same time the press and corridors of power are again rife with rumours about the disbandment of the Duma and talk of the inadequacy of Russian electoral legislation.

Significantly enough, now was the moment chosen for unification by three pro-presidential political movements -- the Our Home is Russia (NDR) movement (led by Prime Minister Chernomyrdin), which is represented in the Duma, and two smaller ones -- Reforms: A New Course and the movement of "people's houses", which are headed by men close to the President -- former upper house speaker Vladimir Shumeiko and former presidential administration head Sergei Filatov.

The Union of Progressive Forces they formed is an attempt by centre-rightists to set up a counter-weight to the People's Patriotic Union, formed by the Communists and patriots in the run-up to the presidential election of 1996.

But why hurry if the next election is not near at hand?

The dissolution of the Duma will give the President little: all political scientists remark rightly that a new Duma would not be "better" than the old one. What is more, it may most probably be much "worse", because the economic crisis is still here, and patience is running out. Isn't this evidenced by a Communist being elected for the first time over the past five years as governor of the southern city of Rostov, Russia's major regional centre?

Russia's present electoral system was introduced to coincide with the early 1993 elections and clearly reflected the Democrats' desire to consolidate the ground gained. So in 1993 regulations on the proportional electoral system (with half of the lower house to be elected on party tickets) and the 5-per-cent barrier seemed adequate and timely to the Democrats.

But twice -- in 1993 and 1995 -- the advantages of these rules were enjoyed by the Communists. They have the most successfully party ticket, while the Democrats are quarrelling and splitting up all the time, and all democratic parties have now slipped below the Duma passing five-per-cent mark.

Today some Democrats feel that it is necessary urgently to abolish the "clearance" level or reduce it from five to three per cent, with lower proportion of party representation.

Not all Democrats back the idea of cutting down party representation from one-half to one-third or even one-quarter.

Grigory Yavlinsky, leader of the Yabloko political association, for example, believes that the government and President find it easier to manipulate disunited deputies not bound by party discipline.

Even so the electoral law will hardly be altered, because all amendments are to be passed by the Duma, and its Communist majority so far benefits from the law. The only remaining thing is to hold a referendum. But now is not 1991, and voters are not so eager and optimistic to get to the ballot boxes as they used to.

If the referendum is called after all, one can bet that the population will not vote to express their attitude to party tickets and the 5-per-cent threshold. Few if any are interested -- and fancy -- know about this in the vast Russia. So Russia will most likely have to elect in the next few years according to the 1993 law.

But need things be brought to elections? The Russian executive branch seems to be engaged in a fine game of politics with Duma deputies, trying to persuade them to adopt laws suiting the government. It hardly wants to press for new parliamentary elections. But in Russian politics one must be prepared for anything.

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Johnson's Russia List

4 June 1997

djohnson@cdi.org