Ogonek No. 22, June 1997 (Signed to press 29.05.97)

OPPOSITION. UNATTRIBUTED SELECTION OF QUOTATIONS FROM YU. BATURIN, SECRETARY OF THE DEFENSE COUNCIL AND I. RODIONOV, FORMER DEFENSE MINISTER.

First three paragraphs are introduction. Public opinion has reduced the battle around the military reform to the protracted conflict between two political figures: Defence Minister Igor Rodionov and Secretary of the Defense Council Yuriy Baturin.

The result is well-known. The arguments of both are known less. Baturin is laconic and prefers cabinet forms of struggle. By contrast, Rodionov is talkative and changes his stand depending on the audience, political context and external influences. Finally, the arguments have boiled down to the main thing: Rodionov wanted more and more money, Baturin advised to limit to what the state can offer. In principle, this is correct but the problem is much more complicated. The following quotations on the fundamental problems of military reform illustrate more serious divergencies between the two politicians.

I. RODIONOV: THE TREAT IS INCREASING

The present situation can be described as a substitution of a bi-polar with a unipolar world. In the past the situation was dangerous but controllable. Today, the world is sliding to a situation when certain states may wish to settle their problems disregarding the interests of other countries. Not all members of the world community have rejected the use of force and extreme methods as a means to solve their problems. Disintegration of the former [Soviet] Union and the Warsaw Treaty Organization has allowed the United States and their allies to extend their spheres of influence and to fill in the vacuum on the traditionally Soviet markets. Some other countries which, in the past, never dreamed of it, are trying to profit from the new realities. They are, in particular, Turkey, Pakistan, Japan and some others. The cold war has been officially discontinued yet its geopolitical aims and concealed mechanisms are still affecting the development of inter-state relations... Today, the world is living and developing

not according to the wishes of the authors of the "new political thinking" and "priority of common human values" concepts but in the context of global competition and struggle for strategic survival in the 21st century... It seems that the United States' efforts to ensure its unlimited world leadership based on the military-political NATO bloc are dangerous. Actions of some of the Asian countries can also be viewed as potentially dangerous for the Community's [of Independent States] members. Constant growth of offensive potentials of the armed forces and strivings of such regional power centers as Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Japan, China and some others, ... maintain military danger in the South and the East.

YU. BATURIN: THE THREAT IS DECREASING

It seems that in the short-term perspective there is little danger of foreign interference into the Russian Federation. In this period there is little chance that new enemies unfolding an armed aggression against Russia like it was during the cold war. A possibility of a large power or a coalition of powers attacking Russia is small. Therefore, the calls like "be ready to repulse an aggression of any type of scale, including a large-scale war" deprive our military doctrine of priorities... For several years illusions about a foreign threat to Russia and its nature, and the nature of Russia's security were maintained... The character of international relations has radically changed and thus resulted in a decreased possibility of a large-scale use of armed forces to solve current problems...

I. RODIONOV: THROUGH THE REFORM TO "HEALTHY NATIONALISM"

The nation's "defensive" frame of mind has disintegrated. The government's "anti-military" and pro-Western course and the media's anti-patriotic and anti-Russian stand have inculcated in the minds of certain social groups a distorted idea of the army, military security and a need to strengthen defenses...

We have to elaborate contemporary military ideology based on patriotism, defense of the state, sovereignty and the state's integrity, the tradition of sobornost and high moral values of the Russian army... To lead the country out of the fatally protracted crisis we have to unite all the Russians in this country... This should be a subtle policy to prevent patriotism developing, God forbid, into chauvinism or racism...

YU. BATURIN: THROUGH THE REFORM TO DEMOCRACY

The military reform is the most important political, rather than military, measure. In fact, it should be extended to all aspects of democratic transformations in Russia including creation of the three major significant elements: civic society, market economy and the state ruled by law. A timely military reform conducted in the right way is a guarantee of Russia's democratic development. It should be constantly kept in mind since we are advancing along the road leading to a democratic open society.

I. RODIONOV: WE NEED MORE MONEY

We should force, precisely force, our market economy to work for the country's defense using all legal and economic levers.

YU. BATURIN: THERE IS ENOUGH MONEY

Social security for the military who will be dismissed from the army as a result of cuts in the Armed and other forces is the most serious problem. This requires a lot of money. We are contemplating a possibility of obtaining it not only from the defense budget but also through extra-budget sources, such as selling military property, hardware, and arms, including under the project of "weapon's second life"; economic activity of the military command agencies, leasing out and other forms of contracts on real estate and facilities, selling arms and ammunition, ... debt arrears of other countries for weapons sold by the Soviet Union. We should make use of international programs of humanitarian cooperation, securities issued to cover up the money due to the military upon retirement...

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Johnson's Russia List

4 June 1997

djohnson@cdi.org